"Global Threat and Navy Relevance" speech by Charles Williams

"Global Threat and Navy Relevance" speech by Charles Williams

• 3.
  Hot Spots • Globalhotspots requiring a presence and show of strength: • Russia’s expansion into Ukraine. • China’s expansion into the South China Sea. • The Middle East poses a threat to the African and European continents with ISIS talk of a Caliphate. (Ottoman Empire). Iraq is unstable. Syria is in a civil war. Saudis are fighting in Yemen. Iran has threatened closing the Straits of Hormuz. Israel is potentially at risk from growing Shiite regional influence. Russia continues to meddle. • North Korea poses a threat to South Korea, perhaps Japan and potentially the Hawaiian Islands and Western United States.
• 4.
  Maritime Choke Points •Choke points in order of importance for trade and military logistics and strategic movement: • Straits of Hormuz • Straits of Malacca • Bab El- Mandes Strait (Red Sea) • Suez Canal • Bosporus Strait • Panama Canal • Danish Strait • Strait of Gibraltar
• 10.
  NATO • Can wedepend on NATO to flank Russia and defend against ISIS. • Turkey – Black Sea • France – Mediterranean • Germany and U.K. Baltic Sea and North Atlantic • 28 countries and 22 PFP (12 initially) • 3 budget categories (civil, military, security) • 2% GDP member spending requirement • U.S. pays 22%-73% of cost- over $700m 3.6% GDP • 5 countries pay their share.
• 12.
  History • WW 1- 245 ships (1916) • WW 2 – 6,768 ships (28 acft carriers) • Vietnam – 752 ships (732k personnel) • SecNav Lehman/President Reagan - 600 ships. • 200 crises since 1945. Navy and Marines used in 177 cases. Land based Air and ground forces in 90 cases. • Mission - Sea Control, Strike, Shield, Power Ashore. Humanitarian role.
• 16.
  2010 Status Maritime Strategyspeech at St. Louis University. 160 billion budget 400k military active and selected reserve. 200k civilian; ship count 291; aircraft count of 3700. Ships operating at sea as a percentage of the fleet 58%. 2001-2005 fleet size of no less than 325 ships to carry out the navy mission. (308 today) A smaller navy today and increased ship operating tempo is wearing out our equipment and long deployments are creating hardships for our people. 272 ships are insufficient and lowest since WW 1.
• 17.
  2015 Status ofthe Navy • Active Duty: 329,345 • Officers: 53,725 • Enlisted: 271,199 • Midshipmen: 4,421 • Ready Reserve: 107,660 (Mar 2016) • Selected Reserves: 57,175 • Individual Ready Reserve: 50,485 • Reserves currently mobilized: 2,911 [As of Mar 2016] • Navy Department Civilian Employees: 206,851 • Ships and Submarines • Deployable Battle Force Ships: 272 • Ships Deployed: 58 (21%) • Ships Underway for Local Ops / Training (USFF / 3rd Fleet): 102 (38%) • Ships Underway • Aircraft Carriers: USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) - Pacific USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) – 7th Fleet USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) - 5th Fleet USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) – 7th Fleet • Amphibious Assault Ships: • USS America (LHA 6) - Pacific • USS Wasp (LHD 1) - Atlantic • USS Boxer (LHD 4) - 5th Fleet • USS Bataan (LHD 5) - Atlantic • Aircraft (operational): 3700+ • FY 2015 budget 148 billion • FY 2016 budget 161 billion
• 18.
  Presence - PeaceThru Strength That is Visible • Greater presence creates more problems for our adversaries and sends a reassuring signal to our allies. • New prototype carrier should be part of our long range planning. • Eight 100,000 ton carriers and twelve 60,000 ton carriers with approximately 60 aircraft each on the smaller deck ship including UAV’s. • Net 8 additional ships. • Losing a big deck is 10% of our carrier force. Very few ports can accommodate their size for repair.
• 22.
  Immediate Requirements • Add11 ships for a total of 283 (7 csg, 2 asw, 2 mcm) • 12 carrier battle groups. (3 Pac, 1 Med, 1 I/O) • Add airwing of 66 aircraft. • Time spent in transiting ocean space (20% of a deployment) • More time on station different home porting arrangements. Less wear on our people, equipment and increased presence. • Port in the western Mediterranean and in Southeast Asia should be discussed with the State Department.
• 23.
  Manning • Considering deployedand support personnel 357,500 active military, 60,000 selected reserve, 200,000 civilian. • Net 25,000 increase in DON personnel resulting from adding a carrier strike group and support personnel based on a 5:1 ratio and 308 ship navy. • 6,000 civilian decrease and 3,000 reserve increase.
• 24.
  Manpower Study • Last5 years head count reduced 1 percent while ship count reduced 7% from 291 to 272. • Need manpower study creating a benchmark ratio of support to deployable forces. 5:1 seems achievable for an efficiently run organization. • Don’t know the current impact of contracted out services and how current technology plays into manning but needs to be analyzed
• 25.
  Concerns • Mine CounterMeasure and ASW capability. LCS modules need to work for this capability. • Cyber commitment needs augmentation and a Psy Ops unit should be considered. • Allies acceptance of robust responsibilities. • Chinese Navy to grow to 351 ships by 2020. • Russian Navy 2015 – 272 ships. • DON/COCOM – 308 ships, 15CSG. Fiscal Limits • Congress – 225 ships acceptable
• 26.
  Addendum Long Range 350Ships • CVN – 8 (100k ton) $14 billion • CV -12 (60,000 ton) $7 billion • CG – 27 Ticonderoga mods $396 million • CG – 10 $3 billion • DDX- 3 Zumwalt $4 billion • DD – 80 (Arleigh Burke) $1.9 billion • FF – 9 < $1 billion • LCS – 32 $500 million • PV – 20 $70 million
• 27.
  SSN – 60$3.5 billion SSBN – 10 $5 billion SSGN - 4 <$5 billion LPD – 12 $2 billion LSD – 12 $1.4 billion LHA – 3 $3.3 billion LHD – 8 $1.5 billion MCM – 15 $274 million Fleet size 325 ships. Convert LCS constructing 20 Frigates and add 5 CLF ships for a 350 ship navy. $25 billion ship building budget 10 -11 ships per year per industry. Decommissioning TBD.