CONDITIONA
PROBABILITY
L
OBJECTIVES
At the end of the lesson student
should be able
a. Identify to; which involves
events
conditional probability
b. Solve problems involving
conditional probability.
c. Apply conditional probability to
EXAMPLE
ORDINARY CONDITIONA
An ordinary six- Supposed we are told
L
that the die came up
sided die is about
with an even number.
to
S= be{1,
rolled
2, 3,at4, 5, What are
Sr =the even
{2, 4,
once add 6} number6}in a die?
What is the Given that an even
probability that a 2 number is rolled, what
is theP(2
probability that
l E) = 1/3 it
is rolled at=once.
P(2) is 2?
1/6
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
is the probability that an
event occurs given that
another event has already
occurred.
REDUCE SAMPLE
SPACE
is the set of all possible
outcomes remaining after
given conditions or
information are applied in a
probability experiment.
EXAMPLE: ORDINARY ♠️1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 J Q K
A card is drawn from a well- ❤️1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
shuffled ordinary 52 card deck. 10 J Q K
What is the probability that it is ♦️1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
jack? 10 J Q K
🍀1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
P(J) = 4 = 1 10 J Q K
52 13
EXAMPLE: CONDITION ❤️1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A card is drawn from a
ALwell- 10 J Q K
shuffled ordinary 52 card deck. ♦️1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 J Q K
Given that the card is red what
is the probability that it is jack?
P(J) = 2 = 1
26 13
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
FORMULA
Meaning of the terms:
P(A l B): Probability that A occurs
given B has occurred
P(A∩B): Probability that both A and
B occur
P(B): Probability that B occurs
EXAMPLE:
Back to rolling a die. Consider the two
events:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {1, 2, 3, 4,Reduced
5} Sample
B = {3, 4, 5, 6}Space
What is the probability
P(A l B) = P(A∩B) of A,
= 3/6 = given B?
3
P(B) 4/6 4
TRY TO SOLVE THIS: Consider the two events:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {1, 3, 5}
B = {3, 4, 5}
P(A l B) = P(A∩B)
P(B)
= 2/6
3/6
= 2
3
TRY TO SOLVE THIS: Two dice are rolled. Given
that the sum is 8, what is
the probability that one
die shows a 2?
List of possible outcomes
sum = 8
(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5,
3), (6, 2)
= 5 total outcomes
Outcomes with 2 = 2
(2,6) (6,2)
BOARD WORK
A. From a standard deck of 52 cards, find
the probability that a card is a king given
that it is a spade.
A = card is a king
B = card is a spade
P(K∣S) = P(K∩S) = 1/52 = 1
P(S) 13/52 13
BOARD WORK
B. In a class of 40 students, 25 students passed
Math, 20 students passed English, and 15
students passed both Math and English.
What is the probability that a student passed
English given that they
P(E∣M) = P(E∩M) = 15/40 passed Math?
= 15 =3
P(M) 25/40 25 5
BOARD WORK
C. In a survey, 60 people like coffee, 40
like tea, and 25 like both. If a person is
chosen at random, what is the probability
that the person
·Like coffee = 60 likes coffee given that they
like tea?
·Like tea = 40
·Like both = 25
P(C∣T) = 25/100 = 25 =5
40/100 40 8
BOARD WORK
D. A bag contains 5 red balls and 7 blue
balls. One ball is drawn at random. Given
that the ball drawn is blue, what is the
probability that it
·Total blue balls = 7
is a dark blue ball if 4 of
the blue balls are
·Dark blue balls = 4 dark blue?
P(DB∣B) = 4/12 =4
7/12 7
BOARD WORK
E. A fair six-sided die is rolled.
Let: A= the number is even
B= the number is greater than 3
Find the probability that the number is even
given that it is greater than 3.
P(A∣B) = 2/6 =2
3/6 3