Probability

It is the likelihood of an event.

It is a game of chance.
It may also define as the proportion of total
number of equally likely, equally probable,
mutually exclusive outcomes which satisfy that
event.
The value of probability range between 0 – 100 or
0 – 1. A probability of 0 means that a particular
event will not occur while a probability value of 1
indicates the certainly that it will occur. Probability
usually expressed as percentage or proportion.
Example:
At the beginning of a football game, the officials
toss a coin. Most coins (fair coins) have two sides.
“heads” and “tails” and neglecting the unlikely
events that the coin ends up on its edge or gets
lost, there are two possible outcomes. If the two
outcomes are equally likely, the chance of getting
one of the other is 1 out of 2 or put another way if
1.0 is certainly and 0.0 is no chance then the
probability of one of two outcomes is 0.5
• P ( Head) = ½
• P ( Tail) = ½
Example:
Drawing a card from a standard deck of cards. Probability of
drawing any card is equally likely.
P (drawing any card) 1/52
Example:
On a roll of a die (the singular of “dice”), there are six possible
outcomes. Each of these is equally likely so the chance of rolling
and any one particular number if 1 out of 6 or about 0.166
P (.) = 1/6
P (..) = 1/6
Example:
In heterozygous individuals with a genetic constitution Dd.
Probability of gametes having the gene D or the gene d is
equally likely.
P (D) = ½
• do you see in a pattern here?
• When any of the given number of outcomes are
all independent of each other and equally likely,
the chance of any one of them occurring is one
out of the total number of outcomes. Or , in
other words, if you want to calculate the
chances of some event occurring you total up all
the independent events that could occur and the
chance of the particular event is one out of the
sum of those independent events.
• Outcome: The result obtained an account of an
experiment is called as outcome. Tossing of a coin is
an experiment and the appearance of head or tail
are outcomes.
• Sample space: The totality of all possible outcomes
of an experiment is called a sample space and
outcome is a point in the sample.
• Event: An event is a part of the sample space. It
may consist of a number of outcomes of an
experiment. An event is the possible outcome of
the experiment.
• Equally likely: outcomes of an experiment are said to
be equally likely when it is expected that one of them
may occur rather than the other
• Mutually exclusive: this term is used when we
consider two or more events in such a way that the
occurrence of one event makes the occurrence of
other event impossible.
• For example, when we toss a coin appearance of
head makes the occurrence of tail impossible and
vice versa. Out of the two possible outcomes only
one will occur at a time. Similarly a gametes from
diploid heterozygote (Aa) can have either allele “A” or
allele “a” but never both (under normal condition).
 Types of event
1) independent events
2) dependent events
Independent events: Two events A and B are said
to be independent when ocurance one does not
influence the probability of occurrence of the
other.
For example tossing two different coins
simultaneously. The appearance of head are tail of
one coin is not influenced by the appearance of
head or tail of the second coin. Birth of a child in a
family is independent of previous or future births
• Dependent events: Two events A and B are said to be dependent
when occurrence of one event influences the probability of
occurrence of the second event or other event.
• For example suppose there are 4 red and 6 white balls in a bag. If
event A is drawing first ball without replacement and the even B is
drawing the second ball.
• P (drawing any ball) 1/10
• P(drawing a red ball first time) 4 /10
• Probability of second event depends on the result of event A if first
ball drawn was red and the probability of second ball drawn being
red will be
• P(drawing red ball second time) 3/9
• If in event A first ball draying was not red then the probability of
second ball drawn being red will be 4/9. In such cases with the
probability of event B depend upon the information of event A this
is known as conditional probability and is designated symbolically
as P (B/A) conditional probability of B given that a has already
 Laws of probability
• Addition law of probability
• (Sum Rule/ or Law/ either or law) :
• If A and B are two mutually exclusive event the probability of
occurrence of either event A or B is equal to the sum of their
separate probabilities.
In symbolic form P ( either A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
• Example: on tossing a coin the probability of appearance of head is
1/2 and the probability of appearance of tail is 1/2
• P (either head or tail) = P (head) + P (tail)
• ½+½ =1
• Example: on rolling a die the probability of appearance of any
number from 1 - 6 is 1/6.
• P (.) = 1/6 , P ( ..) 1/6
• Example in case of gamete formation by a
heterozygote having the Genetic Constitution
Aa.
probability of gamete having A P( A)
probability of gamete having a P(a) P
( gamete either having A or a ) P(A) + P(a)
½+½
 Mltiplication Law of Probability
(Product rule/and law)
• For Independent Event
• If A and B are two independent event, the probability
of occurrence of both events A and B simultaneously
is equal to the product of their separate probabilities.
symbolically it can be written as follows:
• P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)
• Example: birth of a child in a family
• P(boy) = 1/2
• P(Girl) =1/2
• P(a boy .a girl. a boy) = P(Boy). P (Girl). P(Boy)
1/2. 1/2. 1/2 =1/8
 For Dependent Events
• If A and B are two dependent events, the
probability that events A and B occur
simultaneously is equal to the product of the
probability of event A and conditional
probability of event B. given that A has already
occurred. This can be written in symbolic
forms follows:
• P(A and B) = P (A) . P (B/A)
• P (B and A) = P (B) P ( A/B)
 Example
• suppose that a bag contain 4 red and 6 white
balls. Event A is the apperence of red ball on first
draw (without replacement). Event B is the
appereance of red ball on second draw.
• P(drawing a red ball 1st time) = 4/10
• P(drawing a red ball 2nd time whent A event has
occured) = 3/9
• P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)
• 4/10 . 3/9
 Applications of Probability
1. Calculation of Probability in a given order
For example probability of 4 childern
P( boy. boy. girl and a boy) = P (Boy). P(Boy). P(Girl). P (Boy)
1/2 . 1/2 . 1/2. 1/2 = 1/16
2. When no given order
• For Example Probability of 2 boys and 2 girls
• P ( 2 Boys and 2 Girls) ?
• Binomial Expansions will be used to solve this
question
 Charastics of Binomial Expansion
1. The No. of terms in the binomial expansion is one
more than the power of the expansions
2. The exponents in the binomial expansion follow a
definite pattern. The exponents of B begin with the
power to which the binomial is raised and
decreased to zero. The exponents of G begin with
Zero and increased to the power to which the
binomial is raised.
3. The coefficients of the expanded binomial follows a
symmetrical pattern. The coefficients of the first and
the last term are both one. The coefficients of
second and second to last term are equal to the
power to which the binomial is raised. The
coefficients of all succeeding terms can be
determined b using Pascal's triangle.
4. The sum of the exponents of each term equal to n.
(n is the power of the binomial)
5. every term of the expansion contains both B and G.