Population dynamics
Definitions
Fertility - the actual reproductive performance of a population
- Production of a live birth or it is the occurrence of birth
Fecundity - physiological (biological) capacity to conceive
(reproductive potential)
Infecundity (sterility) - lack of the capacity to conceive
Primary sterility - never able to produce a child
Secondary sterility - sterility after one or more children have
been born
Infertility - Inability to produce a live birth
Fecundability - Probability that a woman will conceive during a
menstrual cycle
Natural fertility - Fertility in the absence of deliberate parity-
specific control
1
Definitions…Cont’d
Reproductivity - extent to which a group is replacing its own
numbers by natural processes
Parity - number of children born alive to a woman
Birth interval - time between successive live births
Pregnancy interval - time between successive pregnancies of a
woman
Gravidity - number of pregnancies a woman has had whether or
not they produce a live birth
Live birth – the birth of a child with some symptoms of life (i.e.
movement in the diaphragm, any sort voice, pulse rate )
Still Birth – the birth of a child with complete disappearance of life
Mortality - the complete disappearance of life once a live birth
occurred
2
The concept of population change
◊The concept of population change is often used to
connote(indicate) the change in the number of
inhabitants of the territory during a specific period of
time, irrespective of the fact that whether the change is
negative or positive
◊ Such a change can be measured both in terms of
absolute numbers and percentages
◊ Population is the most dynamic variable and this
dynamism is the result of the combined effect of the
components of population change (birth, death and
migration)
◊ It has been pointed out that fertility; mortality and
migration constitute the three basic components of
population growth.
◊ In order to calculate the magnitude of population change
in any area, it is essential to measure fertility, mortality
and migration precisely
3
Measurements of Fertility
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - It is expressed as the number of live
births in a year per thousand of the mid year population
◙ Only live births during the year are taken in to account
◙ It is not only the simplest but also the most commonly used
measure of human fertility
Mathematically:-
CBR= Bi X 1000
P
Where, CBR is crude birth rate
Bi is total live births during a year.
P is estimated mid year population
4
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Merits
■ CBR requires least information (Only total population & total
live births during a year)
■ It provides the rate at which population increases through birth
Drawbacks
■ It uses the total population as a denominator including large
mass of male and female children and older adults not
involved in the process of reproduction
■ It does not take in to account the age and sex composition and
marital status of the population under investigation
■ Thus, the Crude Birth Rate gives only a general idea about the
fertility and rightly known as crude
5
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Child Woman Ratio
■ Is expressed as the number of children below five years of age
per thousand females of reproductive age group
■ It takes in to account females in the reproductive age group
only
Child women ratio = Po - 4 X 1000
Pf 15- 49
Where , Po- 4 is the number of children under five years of age
Pf 15- 49 is the total number of women in the child bearing age
Some draw backs of the Fertility Ratio
■ It includes only surviving children below five years of age and not
all children who are actually born
■ It takes in to consideration all females in age group 15- 49 years
irrespective of their marital status.
6
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
■ It can be affected by migration of females .Sometimes females
may move to another place of residence leaving their children
behind their native village
General Fertility Rate ( GFR)
It is expressed as the number of live births in a year per thousand
women of the reproductive age group
GFR = _Bi_X 1000
Pf 15- 49
Where; Bi is total number of live births in a year
Pf 15- 49 is the total number of women in their reproductive age
Draw backs
■ Child bearing incidence may vary for women aged 15- 49 years.
Because child bearing incidence is higher during 25 - 29
years than other year.
7
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
■ It takes in to account all females aged 15 - 49 years irrespective
of their marital status
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
■ Number of live births per 1,000 women of a specific age (group)
■ It measures the total number of live births in a year to women of
a given age group per thousand women in that age group
Mathematically:- nfx = nBx
nWx
Where; nfx is Age Specific Fertility Rate
n Wx is the total number of women in the age group X to X + n years
nBx is the total number of live births to a woman in age group X to X+n
years
X refers to the lower class boundary of the age interval
8
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Age Specific Fertility Rate for Addis Ababa city in 1994 (Table 1)
Age group No of women No of births Age Specific Fertility
(nWx) (nBx ) Rates ( nfx)
(nBx)
(nWx)
15 - 19 185,031 1996 0.01
20 - 24 145,093 7679 0.053
25 – 29 108,927 10,389 0.095
30 – 34 68,866 6776 0.094
35 – 39 71,970 4770 0.066
40 – 44 40,626 1142 0.028
45 - 49 31,520 382 0.012
9
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
■ This type of measure of fertility permits detailed comparison
between population and is helpful in revealing the differences
in fertility rates of women belonging to different age groups.
Thus, ASFR is an age - sex adjusted measure of fertility
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
TFR is the average number of children a woman would have at
the end of her reproductive life if she passes or follows the
Age Specific Fertility Rates observed over a specified time
TFR can be obtained by summing up the Age Specific Fertility Rates and
multiplying it by the length of age interval in which the age group is
classified
TFR = n x ∑nfxi
Where; TFR is the Total Fertility Rate
n is the age interval in which the age group is classified
∑nfxi is the sum of Age Specific Fertility Rates
10
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
■ TFR can be obtained by summing up the Age Specific Fertility
Rates and multiplying it by the length of age interval in which
the age group is classified
Thus, TFR = 5 x ∑nfxi
TFR from the table 1 which shows the ASFR of Addis Ababa city
would be
TFR = 5 x ∑nfxi ( ∑nfxi is 0.358 from table 1)
TFR = 5 x 0.358
= 1.79 ≈ 2
This shows that, a woman of Addis Ababa would have two
children at the end of her reproductive life (Age of 50)
11
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Assumptions
■ A woman should survive to the end of her reproductive life
■ A woman should follow the Age Specific Fertility Rate observed
in a single year
Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
GRR is interpreted as the average number of daughters a woman
would have if she survives at least to the age of 50 and
experienced FASFR observed in a single year.
■ GRR assumes no mortality of daughters until they replace their
mothers
Female Age Specific Fertility Rates (FASFR)
■ It expressed as the number of female births in a year to woman
of a given age group per thousand women in that particular
age group 12
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
■ FASFR = nFBx
nWx
Where, FASFR is female age specific fertility rate
■ nFBx is the number of female live births to women aged x to
x+n years
■ nWx is the number of women in their reproductive life who are
aged x to x+n years.
13
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Female Age Specific Fertility Rates for Addis Ababa city in 1994 (Table 2)
Age group No of women No of Female Age Specific
(nWx) Female Fertility Rates
births ( nFBx)
(nFBx ) (nFBx)
(nWx)
15 - 19 185,031 969 0.005
20 - 24 145,093 3728 0.026
25 – 29 108,927 5068 0.047
30 – 34 68,866 3338 0.048
35 – 39 71,970 2305 0.034
40 – 44 40,626 560 0.014
45 - 49 31,520 192 0.006
14
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
GRR = n x ∑FASFRs
Where, GRR is Gross Reproduction Rate
■ n is the age interval in which the age group is classified
■ ∑FASFRs is the sum of Female Age Specific Fertility Rates
From table 2 ∑FASFRs is 0.178
Thus, GRR = 5 x ∑FASFRs
GRR = 5 x 0.178 = 0.89 ≈ 1
This shows that the ability of Addis Ababa woman to reproduce
themselves. Or the ability of Addis Ababa women to replace
themselves is about one in 1994
15
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
NRR is the average number of daughters that a woman would
have if she survive to the age of 50 and experienced a given
set of Female Age Specific Fertility Rates through out her
reproductive life with allowance made for mortality of female
births
NRR is a GRR which is adjusted for mortality of daughters
The adjustment is performed by multiplying each Female Age
Specific Rates by the probability of surviving from birth to the
age mothers
So, to calculate the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), we need both
FASFRs and a life table of survival ratio
16
Measurements of Fertility…Cont’d
NRR= n x ∑(FASFR x SRi)
Where NRR is the net reproduction rate
■ n is the age interval in which the age group is classified
■ FASFR is Female Age Specific Fertility Rate
■ SRi is the survival ratio to the age group
N.B. NRR is thus always slightly less than GRR. The extent of the
difference being depends on the level of mortality of female
births
17
Proximate Determinants of Fertility
■ Bongaarts (1982) provided an analytical model for measuring in
surveys the most important proximate determinants that affect
fertility
Bongaart’s Proximate Determinants
1.*Proportion of women in a sexual union (married)
2.*Use of contraception
3.*Post-partum amenorrhea (due to breastfeeding)
4.*Induced abortion
[Link] of intercourse
[Link] fetal losses
[Link] (due to disease)
* Major determinants of variability in fertility in most populations
18
Proximate Determinants of Fertility
■ The following four factors substantially account for the trends
and differentials seen in fertility over time or place
● Proportion of women in sexual unions (Marriage)
● The level of contraceptive use
● Duration of postpartum infecundability
● The level of induced abortion
■ The remaining three proximate determinants are relatively less
important determinants of the trends and differentials in
fertility (though sterility due to disease is important in some
SSA regions) . These include:
● The level of permanent sterility
● Frequency of intercourse (fecundability)
● Spontaneous intrauterine mortality
19
Underlying Determinants of Fertility in Populations
■ The underlying determinants of fertility are those socio-
economic, cultural, health and programmatic factors that
result in changes in reproductive behaviors in populations.
■ All underlying determinants must operate through the proximate
determinants to influence the level of fertility in a population.
Underlying Determinants of Fertility: Some Examples
♦ Social: education, income, work, status of women
♦ Cultural: marriage practices, post-partum abstinence, religious
beliefs about contraception
♦ Health: prevalence of STDs, malaria
♦ Political: government policies regarding family planning, female
education
♦ Programmatic: availability of contraceptive information and
services
20
Measurements of Mortality
■ Crude death rate - Number of deaths per 1,000 of the mid year
population
CDR = Number of Deaths X 1000
Mid Year Population
■ Age Specific Death Rate - Number of deaths per year in a
specific age (group) per 1000 persons in the age group
ASDR = Da X1000
Pa
Where Da= Number of deaths in age (group) a
Pa = Midyear population in age (group) a
■ Infant Mortality Rate - number of deaths of infants under age of
1 in a year per 1000 live births in the same year
IMR = Do X1000 21
Measurements of Mortality
Where Do = Number of infant (< 1 year) deaths
B = Number of live births in a year
■ The IMR is a good indicator of the overall health status of a
population
■ It is a major determinant of life expectancy at birth
■ The IMR is sensitive to levels and changes in socio-economic
conditions of a population
22
Measurements of Mortality
■ Maternal Mortality - Death of a woman while pregnant or within
42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the
duration or site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or
aggravated by the pregnancy or its management but not from
accidental causes (WHO)
Let
Dmc= Number of deaths due to maternal causes
W15-49 = Number of women of reproductive age
B = Total live births
■ Maternal Mortality Ratio - Number of women who die as a
result of complications of pregnancy or childbearing in a given
year per 100,000 live births in that year
Maternal Mortality Ratio = Dmc X100,000
Bi
23
Measurements of Mortality
● Represents the risk associated with each pregnancy, i.e., the
obstetric risk
■ Maternal Mortality Rate - Number of women who die as a
result of complications of pregnancy or childbearing in a given
year per 1000 women of childbearing age in the population
Maternal Mortality Rate = Dmc X 1000
W15-49
Note: Maternal mortality ratio is more widely used
● Represents both the obstetric risk and the frequency with which
women are exposed to this risk
24
Determinants of Variations in Mortality
■ Proximate determinants: Factors that directly influence the risk
of disease and the outcomes of disease processes in
individuals.
■ Distal (underlying) determinants: Social, economic, and
cultural factors that influence the health status of a population
by operating through one or more of the proximate causes
Proximate Determinants of Mortality
Personal behaviors: Diet, hygiene, alcohol and tobacco use,
sexual behavior, etc.
Environmental exposures: Exposure to infectious or chemical or
physical agents, occupational hazards, etc.
Nutrition: Under nutrition, micronutrient deficiency, over
nutrition/obesity etc.
Injuries: Intentional or accidental injuries.
Personal illness control: Specific preventive and sickness care
actions.
25
25
Determinants of Variations in Mortality
Underlying Determinants Mortality
Socio-economic factors: Household wealth, community
development, women’s education and employment, etc.
Institutional factors: Health systems, health regulations,
technological developments, information programs,
environmental interventions, etc.
Cultural factors: Traditional beliefs about health and disease,
religious values, role and status of women etc.
Broader context: Ecological setting, political economy,
transportation and communication systems, agricultural
development, markets, urbanization, etc.
26
Migration
Definitions and Measurement
Migration: Geographic movement of people across a specified
boundary for the purpose of establishing a new permanent or
semi-permanent residence (refugees are not considered as
migrants!)
Or it is the spatial mobility of individuals from one area (origin) to
another (destination) by crossing boundaries either because
of pull or push factors and/or an amalgam of the two
It can be broadly categorized in to two:
1. International Migration - it is migration between and
among countries of the world
Immigration :move into a new country
Immigrant: An international migrant who enters the area from a
place outside the country
27
Migration
Emigration: moving out of home country
Emigrant: An international migrant departing to another country
by crossing the international boundary
2. Internal migration: it refers to movement of people within one
country itself
In-Migration: movement into a new politically /geographically /
administratively defined area within the same country
In-Migrant : A person who moves into a new area within the same
country
Out-Migration : movement out of a politically/geographically/
administratively defined area within the same country.
Out-Migrant: a person who moves out of a area within the same
country
28
Measurements of Migration
■ Immigration Rate : refers to the number of migrants arriving at
a destination per 1000 population at that destination in a
given year.
Number of Immigrants X1000
Total Population at Destination
■ Emigration Rate : refers to the number of emigrants departing
an area of origin per 1,000 population at the area of origin in
a given year
Number of Emigrants X1000
Total Population at Origin
29
Measurements of Migration…Cont,d
■ Net Migration Rate : refers to the difference between the
number of immigrants and emigrants, expressed as increase
or decrease per 1,000 population of the area in a given year
Number of immigrants - Number of Emigrants X 1000
Total Population
30
Population Projection
■ Population projection indicates the future population trends
based on assumptions about future courses of fertility,
mortality and migration
■ Population projection deals not only with the size of population
but also with structure, composition, distribution and etc
■ But the major emphasis is on size of population
■ Population projections are not exact predictions of future
population size
■ They are strictly speaking statements about what the age
composition of the population would be at a given future date, if
the fertility, mortality and migration were to follow certain
specified trends
31
Importance of Population Projection
1. For Socio-economic development Planning
■ For setting employment targets
■ For man power planning
■ For opening schools
■ For expansion of hospitals
■ For supply of goods and services of various types
■ For providing inputs to agriculture and industry
■ For calculating future food requirement
■ For planning flouring construction
■ For conducting and planning elections etc
2. For policy Formulation and Implementation
32
Population Projection…Cont’d
► Methods of population projection
1. Arithmetic growth model
Pt = Po (1+rt)
Where Pt = projected population for time ‘t’.
Po = Initial population size.
t = No of years of projection.
r = growth rate.
r = 1/t ((Pt/ Po) -1)
2. Geometric Growth Model
Pt = Po (1+r) t
Where r = growth rate
t = No of years of projection
Po = Initial population
Pt = Projected population at time “t”
r = (Pt / Po) 1/ t -1 33
Population Projection…Cont’d
3. Exponential growth method
Pt = Poe rt
Where
Pt = Projected population number for time ‘t’.
Po = Initial population number.
e = Natural logarithm.
r = growth rate.
t = No of years of projection
r = 1/t ln Pt/ Po
34
Doubling Times
■ Doubling time refers to the number of years that population
takes to double itself
Dt = 70 / r
Where Dt = doubling time
r = growth rate
Examples
1. According to the 1994 Ethiopian census, the population size
was 53.5 million. Project the population size of Ethiopia for
the year 2014 by assuming the constant growth rate of (r)
0.036. (Use any of the methods).
2. The population of Addis Ababa city was 1,423,111 and
2,112,737 for 1984 and 1994 censuses respectively.
Calculate the growth rate of the population of Addis Ababa by
using any the methods for respective years and project the
population figure for 2014 35
Examples…Cont,d
3. The population size of Ethiopia was 42.6 million and 53.5
million in 1984 and 1994 censuses respectively. Based on
this information estimate the population figure for the year
1990 and project the population number for the year 2014 by
using any of the methods.
36
Population Composition
Sex and Age Composition
■ Sex Composition
● Separate data for males and females are important for the
analysis of other types of data and for the evaluation of the
completeness and accuracy of population counts
■ Sex Ratio : refers to proportion of males relative to females in a
population
Sex Ratio = Number of Males X100
Number of Female
■ Sex ratio has Pattern by age
- Higher at very young ages
- Gap narrows with increasing age
- Goes below 100 by middle age
Sex ratio varies from one population to the other as well 37
37
Population Composition…Cont’d
■ Sex Ratio of Births – refers to the number of male births per
100 female births
Sex Ratio of Births = Number of male births X100
Number of Female births
Sex Ratio < 100 → More female than male births
= 100 → Same number of male and female births
> 100 → More male than female births
■ In human populations, there are more male births than female
births, with ratio generally between 104 and 107
■ Important characteristics which distinguish births with respect to
their sex ratio are age of mother, order of birth, or race
38
Population Composition…Cont’d
■ Age Composition
● Demographers’ definition of age is completed age, i.e. age of an
individual at last birthday.
● It is Most important variable in demographic analyses.
Data on age may be secured by :-
- Asking a direct question on age
- Asking a question on date of birth, or month and year
of birth
- Or a combination of these
■ The population of any nation can be Broadly categorized in to three
based on age data
P0-14=Proportion of children under 15
P65+ = Proportion of aged persons
P15-64 = Proportion of persons of
“working age”
39
Population Composition…Cont’d
Age Dependency Ratio
● Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependant population to the
working age population
Age dependency ratio is of three types:
■ Overall Age-Dependency Ratio: refers to the proportion of
children less than15 and elderly 65+ relative to the population
of “working ages”
= P0-14 + P65+ X 100
P15-64
■ Child-Dependency Ratio - refers to the proportion of children
less than 15 relative to the population of “working ages”
= P0-14 X 100
P15-64
40
Population Composition…Cont’d
■ Old-Age Dependency Ratio: refers to the proportion of adults
over age 65 relative to the population of “working ages”
= P65+ X 100
P15-64
■ Age Pyramid
- Gives a detailed picture of the age-sex structure of a population
- Consists of bars representing age groups in ascending order
from lowest to highest pyramided on one another
- Bars are generally by single or 5-year age groups
- Number (or percentage) of persons in an age group is indicated
by length of its bar from central axis
- Males on left side; females on right side
41
Population Composition…Cont’d
- Pyramids with absolute numbers show differences in overall
sizes of total populations and in number at each age
- Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at
each age-sex group
42
Age Pyramid
43
Three patterns of population pyramid
44