Mitigating Validation
Risk with FIR (Forge
Innovation Rubric)
What is Validation Risk?
• Validation risk: The chance that your idea, product, or
solution does NOT solve a real problem or is unwanted
by customers.
• If you skip checking with real users, you might build
something nobody wants.
What is FIR?
• FIR = Forge Innovation Rubric.
The Forge Innovation Rubric (FIR) is a powerful tool designed to
systematically assess and mitigate risks inherent in product innovation,
especially for startups and new ventures in the industrial technology
space.
It’s a checklist or scoring system to help innovators:
• Test ideas
• Reduce risk of failure
• Make sure their solution is valuable
Example: Google Glass failed to assess the necessity and significance
effectively.
Steps to Mitigate Validation Risk
Using FIR
1. Define the problem and the customer
2. Check the problem’s importance
3. Test if customers want a solution
4. Show your solution and get feedback
5. Identify and address adoption barriers
1. Define the Problem and Customer
• Be clear about the problem you
want to solve.
• Talk to real potential users.
• Make sure the problem is real
and important.
2. Check the Problem’s Importance
• Is the problem big
enough?
• Do enough people care?
• Validate through user
interviews or research.
3. Test Customer Motivation
• Do people try to solve this
problem already?
• Will they switch to your
solution?
• Find evidence from
customer behaviors.
4. Show Value & Get Feedback
• Create a simple prototype
or minimum usable
product.
• Let real users try it.
• Collect honest feedback—
does it work for them?
5. Identify Adoption Barriers
• What might stop people from
using your solution?
• Examples: cost, habits,
complexity, regulations.
• Plan how to fix or reduce
these barriers.
Why This Matters
• High validation risk = higher
chance of failure.
• FIR helps you spot and fix risky
assumptions early.
• Increases chances your innovation
will succeed.
Summary
• Use FIR to test ideas with real
customers at every step.
• Get feedback early and often.
• Fix weak spots before investing
heavily.
• Leads to more successful
innovations.