INTELLIGENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
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Group Members
Obaira Khan (451) Mehwish Sidiq (452) Dure Nayab (453) Mohsin Mushtaq (454) Fahad Firdous (455) Faizan peer (456) Farhana nazir (457) Abeera Kakroo (458) Huzaifa hassan (459) Jibran Khan (460)
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Learning Objectives
Describe the basic concepts in artificial intelligence. Understand the framework in I.D.S.S. Learn the working of expert systems. Understand the benefits and limitations of systems for
decision support. Identify proper applications of expert systems. Future trends and techniques.
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INTRODUCTION TO I.D.S.S.
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Intelligent Decision Support System
Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) is a term
that describes decision support systems that make extensive use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Use of AI techniques in management information systems has a long history. Terms such as Knowledge-based systems (KBS) and intelligent systems have been used since the early 1980s to describe components of management systems, but the term "Intelligent decision support system" is thought to originate with Clyde Holsapple and Andrew Whinston in the late 1970s.
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Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) , intelligent
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marketing decision support systems and medical diagnosis systems can also be considered examples of intelligent decision support systems
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Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the intelligence of machines
and the branch of computer science that aims to create it. it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines
John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956,[3] defines
Artificial Intelligence adapts characteristics of human
problem-solving skills and then applies them as algorithms easily comprehended by computer systems. Such systems are routinely and widely used today by hospitals, corporations, militaries and homes around the world
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Artificial Intelligence Characteristics
The characteristics include the following abilities:
The ability to act intelligently, as a human. The ability to behave following "general intelligent action." The ability to artificially simulate the human brain. The ability to actively learn and adapt as a human. The ability to process language and symbols. Artificial Intelligence primarily concerns the 88
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Artificial Intelligence Concepts
Expert systems In artificial intelligence, an expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert. The first expert systems were created in the 1970s and then proliferated in the 1980s. Sensory systems Vision, tactile, and signal processing systems
Natural language processing NLP is a field of computer science, artificial intelligence and linguistics concerned with the interactions between computers and human (natural) languages
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Artificial Intelligence Concepts
Robotics Sensory systems combine with programmable electromechanical device to perform manual labor Speech recognition Artificial intelligence (AI) for speech recognition involves two basic ideas. First, it involves studying the thought processes of human beings. Second, it deals with representing those processes via machines (like computers, robots, etc
Vision and scene recognition
Computer intelligence applied to digital information from
machine
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Artificial Intelligence Concepts
Neural computing
Mathematical models simulating functional human brain
Intelligent computer-aided instruction
Intelligent computer-assisted instruction (ICAI) uses artificial
intelligence techniques to imitate in computer form the power of human tutorial processes
Game playing
Game AI refers to techniques used in computer and video
games to produce the illusion of intelligence in the behavior of non-player [Link] in a game is any character not controlled by a player
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Artificial Intelligence Concepts
Language translation
Programs that translate sentences from one language to
another without human interaction
Genetic algorithms
sets of data
Computers simulate natural evolution to identify patterns in
Intelligent agents
In artificial intelligence, an intelligent agent (IA) is an
autonomous entity which observes through sensors and acts upon an environment and directs its activity towards achieving goals .
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FRAMEWORK OF I.D.S.S
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FRAMEWORK Of I.D.S.S
Decision support framework categorized decision into three types: Structured, Semistructured Unstructured. Each category is practical at different types of controls: Operational, managerial and strategic planning. Unstructured type of decision and control at the strategic planning typically required advance supporting technology such as expert system and neural networks.
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FRAMEWORK Of I.D.S.S
The intelligent system provides intelligent capability
that will enhance DSS. The capabilities include exhibit adaptive goal-oriented behavior, learn from experience, use vast amounts of knowledge, exhibit self-awareness, interact with humans, tolerate error and ambiguity in communication, and respond in real time. These capabilities are expected to be integrated in DSS to improve its efficiency and effectiveness in terms of capability to reason, make judgments, and even learn. Utilizing these capabilities will create an intelligence assistance that can be used to ease the burden of the expert routine tasks.
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FRAMEWORK Of I.D.S.S
Intelligent Decision Support System is an integration of
DSS and artificial intelligence (AI) technology combining the basic function of DSS and reasoning capabilities of AI techniques. AI is viewed as a system that has the ability to think and act. Based on discussion in Russell and Norvig, AI definitions can be viewed into two dimensions.
In the first dimension, AI can be regarded as a system
that think like humans or that thinks rationally. In the second dimension, AI is viewed as a system that acts like humans or that act rationally.
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FRAMEWORK Of I.D.S.S
The efficacy of AI in DSS depends on AI techniques that
is embedded in DSS. Expert System, Fuzzy Logic, Neural Network, and Genetic Algorithm are among AI techniques that have been popularized in DSS. Expert System utilized human expert knowledge in its knowledge-base, capable to mimic the decision capability of human expert to assist them on their routine tasks or replace them during their unavailability.
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FRAMEWORK Of I.D.S.S
Guerlain et al has identified six characteristics of successful IDSS; Interactivity Representation aiding Event and change detection Error detection and recovery Information extraction Predictive capabilities.
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGIES
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) could be defined as the ability of computer software and hardware to do those things that we, as humans, recognize as intelligent behavior. Traditionally those things include such activities as:
Searching Surmounting constraints Recognizing patterns Making logical inferences
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Data Mining
Data Mining is a term used to describe the process
whereby software tools examine a company data base in order to locate information which may have complex parameter connectivity. Such information would normally be inaccessible to the human expert due to the enormous quantity of data and combinatorial tests which would have to be performed.
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Intelligent User Interfaces
Systems which rely on an AI approach are intended to
interact with the learner to provide a learning environment which suites the individual. This area relies on many other areas of AI but has become an area of active research following the greater availability of appropriate technology.
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Knowledge Based Systems
Knowledge Based System allows a user to interact with
a computer program in much the same way that the user would interact with a domain expert. The Expert System or Knowledge Based System (KBS) contains a well defined area of knowledge associated with a specific area of human expertise.
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Knowledge Management
Knowledge Management is the process by which a
company values its knowledge resource and seeks to manage it effectively within the main stream of company activities. Knowledge Management is primarily focused on knowledge possessed by people.
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Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence The purpose of
fuzzy rule bases is to formalize and implement a human beings method of reasoning. As such it can be classed in the field of artificial intelligence. The tool most commonly used in fuzzy logic applications is the fuzzy rule base. A fuzzy rule base is made of rules which are normally used in parallel but which can also be concatenated in some applications.
This rule is of the type: IF predicate THEN
conclusion. A fuzzy rule comprises three functional parts.
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Artificial Neural Network
The word network in the term 'artificial neural network'
refers to the interconnections between the neurons in the different layers of each system. This system has three layers. The first layer has input neurons, which send data via synapses to the second layer of neurons, and then via more synapses to the third layer of output neurons. More complex systems will have more layers of neurons with some having increased layers of input neurons and output neurons. The synapses store parameters called "weights" that manipulate the data in the calculations.
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Artificial Neural Network
An ANN is typically defined by three types of parameters: The interconnection pattern between different layers of neurons The learning process for updating the weights of the interconnections The activation function that converts a neuron's weighted input to its output activation.
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Interconnected Groups of Nodes in A.N.N.
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Case Based Reasoning
Case-based reasoning (CBR), broadly construed, is the process of
solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems. An auto mechanic who fixes an engine by recalling another car that exhibited similar symptoms is using case-based reasoning. A lawyer who advocates a particular outcome in a trial based on legal precedents or a judge who creates case law is using case-based reasoning. So, too, an engineer copying working elements of nature ,is treating nature as a database of solutions to problems. Case-based reasoning is a prominent kind of analogy making.
It has been argued that case-based reasoning is not only a
powerful method for computer reasoning, but also a pervasive behavior in everyday human problem solving; or, more radically, that all reasoning is based on past cases personally experienced. This view is related to prototype theory, which is most deeply explored in cognitive science.
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Case Based Reasoning
Case-based reasoning has been formalized for purposes of computer reasoning as a four-step process:
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Retrieve: Given a target problem, retrieve from memory cases relevant to solving it. A case consists of a problem, its solution, and, typically, annotations about how the solution was derived. For example, suppose Fred wants to prepare blueberry pancakes. Being a novice cook, the most relevant experience he can recall is one in which he successfully made plain pancakes. The procedure he followed for making the plain pancakes, together with justifications for decisions made along the way, constitutes Fred's retrieved case. Reuse: Map the solution from the previous case to the target problem. This may involve adapting the solution as needed to fit the new situation. In the pancake example, Fred must adapt his retrieved solution to include the addition of blueberries.
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Case Based Reasoning
3.
4.
Revise: Having mapped the previous solution to the target situation, test the new solution in the real world (or a simulation) and, if necessary, revise. Suppose Fred adapted his pancake solution by adding blueberries to the batter. After mixing, he discovers that the batter has turned blue an undesired effect. This suggests the following revision: delay the addition of blueberries until after the batter has been ladled into the pan. Retain: After the solution has been successfully adapted to the target problem, store the resulting experience as a new case in memory. Fred, accordingly, records his new-found procedure for making blueberry pancakes, thereby enriching his set of stored experiences, and better preparing him for future pancakemaking demands.
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Genetic Algorithms
Genetic algorithms (GAs) are general purpose, search
algorithms for solving complex problems. Based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics, GAs work by repeatedly modifying a population of artificial structures through the application of genetic operators.
Fitness information, instead of Gradient information, is
the only requirement for GAs.
GAs can be applied in optimization or classification.
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Genetic Algorithms
The advantages of GAs over conventional parameter
optimization techniques are that they are appropriate for the illbehaved problem, highly non-linear spaces for global optima and adaptive algorithm . The parameters we are searching for are binary coded. These binary numbers are combined together as a string, or structure. It is called a chromosome and each bit of the chromosome is treated as a gene. Next, the GA starts with a population of n randomly generated structures, where each structure encodes a solution to the task at hand.
The GA further processes a fixed number of generations, or
until it satisfies some stopping criterion, by using three operators, selection, crossover, and mutation sequentially. The structure with the optimum, or largest, fitness value of the last population is selected.
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Model Management System
Model Management System is a model based system,
which store constructed model, existing simulation model and related models that can be used in appropriate decision making process. In fact, before using predictive model, the model must be evaluated and tested in model analysis and evaluation process.
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EXPERT subtitle style SYSTEMS Click to edit Master
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Development of Expert System
Primitive solutions Development of general
purpose methods Applications targeted at specific domain
Expert systems
Advanced problem-solving Integration of multiple techniques Multiple domains
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Basic Concepts Of Expert System
q Experts Have special knowledge, judgment, and experience Can apply these to solve problems
Higher performance level than average person Relative Faster solutions Recognize patterns
q Expertise Task specific knowledge of experts
Acquired from reading, training, practice
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Expert Systems Features
q Expertise Capable of making expert level decisions q Symbolic reasoning Knowledge represented symbolically Reasoning mechanism symbolic q Deep knowledge Knowledge base contains complex knowledge q Self-knowledge Able to examine own reasoning Explain why conclusion reached
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Applications
Experts in the company may retire or leave. E.S. are an excellent
tool for preserving professional knowledge crucial to a co.s competitiveness. Certain knowledge needs to be documented or examined. An E.S. is an excellent tool for documenting professional knowledge for examination or improvement. Education & Training is an important but difficult task. An E.S. is a good tool for training new employees & disseminating knowledge in an organization. Experts are often rare & expensive. E.S. allow knowledge to be transferred more easily at a lower cost. E.S. can also be useful tools for knowledge storage & transfer in organizations.
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Areas for Expert System Applications
q Finance
Insurance evaluation, credit analysis, tax planning, financial planning
and reporting, performance evaluation
q Data processing
Systems planning, equipment maintenance, vendor evaluation, network
management
q Marketing
Customer-relationship management, market analysis, product planning
q Human resources
HR planning, performance evaluation, scheduling, pension
management, legal advising
q Manufacturing
Production planning, quality management, product design, plant site
selection, equipment maintenance and repair
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Environments
Consultation (runtime) Development
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Major Components of Expert Systems
Major components Knowledge base Facts Special heuristics to direct use of knowledge Inference engine Brain Control structure Rule interpreter User interface Language processor
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Additional Components of Expert Systems
q Knowledge acquisition subsystem
Accumulates, transfers, and transforms expertise to computer
q Workplace
Blackboard Area of working memory Decisions:- Plan, agenda, solution
q Justifier
Explanation subsystem:- Traces responsibility for conclusions
q Knowledge refinement system
Analyzes knowledge and use for learning and improvements
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HOW EXPERT SYSTEM WORKS
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Knowledge Presentation
q Production rules IF-THEN rules combine with conditions to produce conclusions Easy to understand New rules easily added Uncertainty q Semantic networks q Logic statements
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Inference Engine
q Forward chaining Looks for the IF part of rule first Selects path based upon meeting all of the IF requirements q Backward chaining Starts from conclusion and hypothesizes that it is true Identifies IF conditions and tests their veracity If they are all true, it accepts conclusion If they fail, then discards conclusion
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Types of Expert Systems
Rule-based Systems:-
Knowledge represented by series of rules
Frame-based Systems:-
Knowledge represented by frames
Hybrid Systems:-
Several approaches are combined, usually rules and frames
Model-based Systems:-
Models simulate structure and functions of systems
Off-the-shelf Systems:-
Ready made packages for general use
Custom-made Systems:-
Meet specific need
Real-time Systems:-
Strict limits set on system response times
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Benefits of Expert Systems
Increased outputs Increased productivity Decreased decision-making time Increased process and product quality Reduced downtime Capture of scarce expertise Flexibility Ease of complex equipment operation Elimination of expensive monitoring equipment Operation in hazardous environments Access to knowledge and help desks
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Benefits of Expert Systems
Ability to work with incomplete, imprecise, uncertain data Provides training Enhanced problem solving and decision-making Rapid feedback Facilitate communications Reliable decision quality Ability to solve complex problems Ease of knowledge transfer to remote locations Provides intelligent capabilities to other information systems
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Limitations
Knowledge not always readily available. Difficult to extract expertise from humans. Difficult even for a highly skilled expert. Users have natural cognitive limits. Works well within a narrow domain of knowledge Have no independent means of checking
Vocabulary used is often limited and not understandable
by others Help is required from engineers who are rare and expensive Lack of end user trust Perceptual and judgmental biases Is not able to arrive at conclusions in some cases Sometimes produce incorrect recommendations Intelligent Decision Support
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Ability to work with incomplete, imprecise, uncertain data Provides training Enhanced problem solving and decision-making Reliable decision quality Ability to solve complex problems Ease of knowledge transfer to remote locations Provides intelligent capabilities to other information
systems
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Success Factors
Management champion User involvement Training Expertise from cooperative experts Qualitative, not quantitative, problem User-friendly interface Experts level of knowledge must be high
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Future Trends for use of A.I based Decision Support System
Decision Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence Technologies
in Aid of Information Systems Based Marketing Artificial intelligence-based decision support system to manage Quality of wheat products Artificial Intelligence in Radiology: Decision Support Systems Designing Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems with a better end-use involvement: A promising approach Intelligent Decision Support System for Personalized E-Services Agent-Based Intelligent Decision Support Systems to Support Clinical Management and Research
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Decision Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence Technologies in Aid of Information Systems Based Marketing The primary goal of this study is to predict the next logical and
practical approach in the use of advanced Decision Support Systems (DSS) and Artificial Intelligence to find and evaluate markets for prospective products.
In addition to determining these markets, DSS will then be used
to predict the success of the market and other product lines that can be brought to those markets, making companies more successful in the structuring of marketing models and product lines.
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Artificial intelligence-based decision support system to manage quality of wheat products
The long term competitiveness of food companies as well as the general health and wellness of citizens depend on the availability of products meeting the demands of safe, healthy and tasty foods. Therefore there is a need to merge heterogeneous data in order to develop the necessary decision support systems. Aims The objective of this paper is to propose an approach for durum wheat chain analysis based on a knowledge management system in order to help prediction. Material and Methods The approach is based on an information system allowing for experimental data and expert knowledge representation as well as reasoning mechanisms, including the decision tree learning method. Results The results include the structure of the knowledge management system for durum wheat process data, statistics and prediction results using decision trees. The use of expert rules for decision support is introduced and a method for confronting expert knowledge with experimental data is proposed. Different case studies from the durum wheat process are given. Discussion Our specific original contributions are: the design of a hybrid system combining both data and knowledge, the advantage of not requiring an a priori model, and therefore, an increased generosity, and the potential use for both risk and benefit analysis. Conclusion The approach can be reused for other purposes within the chain, and can also be transferred to other domains. Such a project is a starting point to integrate new knowledge from multidisciplinary fields, and constitutes a tool for structuring the international cereal research 59 community. Intelligent Decision Support
Artificial Intelligence in Radiology: Decision Support Systems
To decide what tests to order, what diagnoses to consider, and what treatments to administer ,physicians draw on a large, rapidly growing body of knowledge. To help organize and apply this knowledge, physicians have turned to the field of artificial intelligence (AI) an amalgam of disciplines such as computer science, mathematics, philosophy, and psychology. Computer-based systems that incorporate AI techniques can recall medical knowledge and integrate it with patient specific clinical data to help physicians make decisions about their patients care. This article reviews the techniques and applications of AI for decision support systems in radiology.
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Due to the rapid advancement of electronic commerce and web technologies in recent years, the concepts and applications of decision support systems have been significantly extended. One quickly emerging research topic is the consumer-oriented decision support system that provides functional supports to consumers for efficiently and effectively making personalized decisions. In this paper we present an integrated framework for developing web based consumer-oriented intelligent decision support systems to facilitate all phases of consumer decision-making process in business-toconsumer e-services applications. Major application Intelligent Decision Support functional modules comprised in the system framework 61
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Agent-Based Intelligent Decision Support Systems to Support Clinical Management and Research
The research into agent-based intelligent decision support systems is important to the medical industry because these systems can be used to improve the quality of healthcare in many ways. The areas these systems can be used in are diverse from the storage of medical records to the examination and evaluation of real-time data gathered from monitors. These systems are helpful to doctors and nurses in the diagnosis and treatment of patient with all kinds of conditions. This paper is a survey of the current research into agent based intelligent decision support systems to support Clinical 62 Intelligent Decision Support Management and Research, in order to first
FUTURE OF I.D.S.S
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Change of Views on IDSS
The range of views of IDSS has increased over the recent years, in response to the expansion of the market for IDSS and the applications to which it has been applied.
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Related Applications
Medicine Epidemiology Education Archeology Law Traffic
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Trends in IDSS
The general trend of IDSS development seems to indicate that it will continue to become: easier to use more intuitive more analytic more embedded within a variety of technologies
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Trends in IDSS
q Trends in IDSS application: IDSS are used everyday for routine operations (planning, development, navigation, scheduling, etc.). IDSS and other areas of science are beginning to merge (graphics, visualization, geometrics, civil engineering, statistics, probability theory, cognitive science, computational geometry, simulation and modeling). Beyond the original decision-support and problem-solving role, IDSS are being viewed as tools for generating ideas. q Cooperation between vendors continues. q Emphasizing the information and finding new ways for
data representation.
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Automated Decision-Making Framework
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Future Trends
Integration (multiple formats, multiple databases) Accessibility (anytime, anywhere) Reliability (no data loss) Proper display of data (advanced graphics methods) Real-time decision support Tracking IDSS development on-line
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Future of IDSS
Evolution of IDSS into Business Intelligence Use of IDSS moved from specialist to managers, and then whomever, whenever, wherever Enabling tools like OLAP, data warehousing, data mining, intelligent systems, delivered via Web technology have collectively led to the term business intelligence (BI) and business analytics
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The Evolution of BI Capabilities
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A High-Level Architecture of BI
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CONCLUSION
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An intelligent decision support system should behave like a human consultant; supporting decision makers by: Gathering and analyzing evidence Identifying and diagnosing problems. Proposing possible course of action. Evaluating the proposed action. The aim of AI techniques embedded in an IDSS is to enable these tasks to be performed by a computer, whilst emulating human capabilities as closely as possible. Many IDSS implementations are based on expert systems, a well established type of IDSS that encode the cognitive behaviors of human experts using predicate logic rules & have been shown to perform better than the original human experts in some circumstances.
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Some research in AI, focused in enabling systems to respond to novelty & uncertainty in more flexible ways is starting to be used in IDSS. For example, intelligent agents that perform complex cognitive tasks without any need for human intervention have been used in a range of decision support applications. Capabilities of these intelligent agents include: Knowledge sharing Machine learning Data mining Automated interference
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INTERACTIVITY- the system works well with other databases and
with the human users who work with it and allows those agents to explore the space of possibilities in a constraint based way, instead of just providing the one optimal solution. EVENT & CHANGE DETECTION- The system recognizes and effectively communicates important changes & events. ERROR DETECTION & RECOVERY- The system checks for typical reasoning errors made by people. Further, the system has some knowledge of its own limitations and checks for situations for which it may not be as fully capable. INFORMATION OUT OF DATA- The system used intelligent algorithmic techniques to massage data & generate information. PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES- The system can predict the effect of actions on future performance. this means predicting both the future environmental state in addition to the change in states caused by different actions.
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Algorithm work generated out of systems engineering
research, such as data mining, data fusion, decision analysis have also contributed greatly for making computer systems to exhibit intelligent behavior.
Beyond being able to act intelligently in isolation, it is
necessary for a system to be able to communicate with others, detect and correct mistakes, and take advantage of others abilities, so that overall intelligence or effectiveness, may be an emergent property of all the smart agents working on the problem in a relatively coordinated fashion.
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SOME SUCCESSFUL IDSS
1.
2.
3.
The Antibody Identification (AIDA) also adapted as the Transfusion Medicine Tutor (TMT)- an IDSS that uses an expert knowledge base to critique blood bank practitioner as they perform a medical laboratory analysis task. This system is currently in use as an intelligent tutor for medical technologists throughout the country. The Regional Crime Analysis Program (RECAP)- An IDSS that mines large crimes databases & uses intelligent clustering techniques to help crime analysts to discover patterns in data. This system is in use by law enforcement in several cities. A River Flooding Forecast System- An IDSS that uses probabilistic (Bayesian) reasoning to predict the likelihood of river flooding based on weather forecasts. This system is in use by the National Weather Service
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THAT WAS ALL FROM US
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