Introduction to
Simulation Modeling
Jason R. W. Merrick
Systems
System – facility or process, actual or
planned
Examples abound …
Manufacturing facility Freeway system
Bank or other personal- Business process (insurance
service operation office)
Transportation/logistics/ Criminal justice system
distribution operation Chemical plant
Hospital facilities (emergency Fast-food restaurant
room, operating room, Supermarket
admissions)
Theme park
Computer network
Emergency-response system
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Work With the System?
Study the system – measure, improve,
design, control
Maybe just play with the actual system
Advantage — unquestionably looking at the right
thing
But it’s often impossible to do so in reality with
the actual system
System doesn’t exist
Would be disruptive, expensive, or dangerous
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Models
Model – set of assumptions/approximations about how the
system works
Study the model instead of the real system … usually much
easier, faster, cheaper, safer
Can try wide-ranging ideas with the model
Make your mistakes on the computer where they don’t count,
rather than for real where they do count
Often, just building the model is instructive – regardless of
results
Model validity (any kind of model … not just simulation)
Care in building to mimic reality faithfully
Level of detail
Get same conclusions from the model as you would from
system
More in Chapter 12
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Computer Simulation
Broadly interpreted, computer simulation refers to
methods for studying a wide variety of models of
systems
Numerically evaluate on a computer
Use software to imitate the system’s operations and
characteristics, often over time
Can be used to study simple models but should not
use it if an analytical solution is available
Real power of simulation is in studying complex
models
Simulation can tolerate complex models since we
don’t even aspire to an analytical solution
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Advantages of Simulation
Flexibility to model things as they are (even if messy and complicated)
Avoid looking where the light is (a morality play):
You’re walking along in the dark and see someone on hands and
knees searching the ground under a street light.
You: “What’s wrong? Can I help you?”
Mr. X: “I dropped my car keys and can’t find them.”
You: “Oh, so you dropped them around here, huh?”
Mr. X : “No, I dropped them over there.” (Points into the
darkness.)
You: “Then why are you looking here?”
Mr. X : “Because this is where the light is.”
Allows uncertainty, nonstationarity in modeling
The only thing that’s for sure: nothing is for sure
Danger of ignoring system variability
Model validity
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System vs. Its Model
• Simplification Model
Real System
• Abstraction
• Assumptions
Understanding
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Model Classification
Physical (prototypes) Descriptive
Analytical (performance
analysis)
(mathematical)
Computer
Prescriptive
(Monte Carlo (optimization)
Simulation)
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Physical (Prototypes)
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Analytical (Mathematical)
Single Stage Queuing Model
1 1
W Wq W
2
n P( N n ) L W Lq Wq
1
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Computer (Monte Carlo Simulation)
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Descriptive (Performance analysis)
Simulation
vs.
Real World
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Prescriptive (Optimization)
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Typical Uses of Simulation
Estimating a set of productivity measures in production systems,
inventory systems, manufacturing processes, materials handling
and logistics operations.
Designing and planning the capacity of computer systems and
communication networks so as to minimize response times.
Conducting war games to train military personnel or to evaluate
the efficacy of proposed military operations
Evaluating and improving maritime port operations, such as
container ports or bulk-material marine terminals (coal, oil or
minerals), so as to find ways of reducing vessel port times.
Improving health care operations, financial and banking
operations, transportation systems and airports, among many
others.
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