probability

Submitted to: Mam Amber

Sialkot institute of science and Technology

Group members

• Zoha Sabir
• Aleesha Imran
• Zahra Batool
• Ainy Zohra
• Romeena Zahra
• Almas Sajjid
Binomial probability
• Binomial probability models the probability of exactly k successes in
n independent trials, where each trial has:
• Two outcomes: success (probability p ) or failure (probability 1-p ).
• A fixed number of trials (n ).
• A constant probability of success ( p ) across all trials .
• The binomial distribution describes the probabilities for all possible
numbers of successes (from 0 to n ).
Binomial probability formula
• The probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by the binomial probability mass function:

• P(X = k)=

• Where:
• P(X = k) : Probability of exactly k successes.
• : Binomial coefficient, the number of ways to choose K successes from n trials:

• =

• p : Probability of success.
• 1-p : Probability of failure.
• k : Number of successes (integer from 0 to n ).
• n : Total number of trials.
Assumptions
• The binomial distribution relies on the following conditions:
• Fixed Trials: The number of trials n is fixed.
• Binary Outcomes: Each trial has exactly two outcomes (success or
failure).
• Constant Probability: The probability of success p is constant for
each trial .
• Independence: Trials are independent; the outcome of one trial does
not affect others.
Applications
Binomial probability is used in:
• Quality Control: Probability of defective items in a sample.
• Medical Research: Probability of patients responding to treatment.
• Finance: Likelihood of successful investments.
• Surveys: Estimating opinions in a sample.
• Sports: Probability of winning a specific number of games.
Properties
• Mean: Expected number of successes: u = n . p
• Variance: Variability in the number of successes:
= n . p . (1-p)
• Standard Deviation: σ=
• Shape: The distribution’s shape depends on p :
• Symmetric if p = 0.5 .
• Right-skewed if p < 0.5 .
• Left-skewed if p > 0.5 .
• Approximates a normal distribution for large n .
Binomial coefficient
• The binomial coefficient represents the number of ways to choose k
successes from n trials:
• =
• Example: For n = 5 , k = 2 :
• = = = 10
Example: A fair coin p = 0.5 is flipped 5 times .
Find the probability of exactly 3 heads
• p = 0.5 n=5 k=3.
P(X = 3) = ( (
• = 10
• (= 0.125
• (= 0.25
• P(X = 3) = 10 ×0.125 ×0.25 = 0.3125
Result: The probability is 0.3125 (31.25%).
A factory has a 2% defect rate p = 0.02. For 10
bulbs , find the probability of exactly 1 defective
bulb
• P=0.02 n=10 k=1
• P(X = 1) = ( (
• = 10
• ( = 0.02
• ( ≈ 0.8336
• P(X = 1) = 10×0.02 ×0.8336 ≈ 0.1667
Result: The probability is approximately 0.1667 (16.67%).
Cumulative probability
• To find the probability of at most k successes:

P(X ≤ k)

• Example: For the defective bulbs, find P(X ≤ 1) :

P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
P(X = 0) = ( (
• P(X = 0) ≈0.8171
• P(X = 1) ≈0.1667
• P(X ≤1) ≈0.8171 + 0.1667 = 0.9838
• Result: The probability is ≈ 0.9838 (98.38%).
Poisson probability
• The Poisson probability distribution models the probability of
observing k events (where k is a non-negative integer) in a fixed
interval of time, space, or another continuous domain. It is
characterized by:
• A constant average rate of occurrence λ.
• Events occurring independently.
• The probability of more than one event occurring in a very small
interval being negligible.
• The Poisson distribution is often used for counting rare events, such as
customer arrivals, defects in manufacturing, or radioactive decays.
Poisson probability formula
• The probability of observing exactly k events in a given interval is given
by the Poisson probability mass function:

• P(X = k) =

• Where: P(X = k) : Probability of exactly k events occurring.

• λ: Average rate of occurrence (mean number of events in the interval).
• k: Number of events (a non-negative integer, k = 0, 1, 2, …).
• e : Base of the natural logarithm e≈ 2.71828 .
• k!: Factorial of k(e.g., 3! = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6 )
Assumption
• The Poisson distribution relies on the following conditions:
• Constant Average Rate: Events occur at a constant average rate ( λ)
over the interval.
• Independence: The occurrence of one event does not affect the
probability of another event.
• Rare Events in Small Intervals: The probability of two or more events
occurring in an infinitesimally small interval is negligible.
• Fixed Interval: The interval of time or space is fixed and well-defined.
Properties
• Mean: The expected number of events in the interval: u = λ
• Variance: The variance equals the mean: = λ
• Standard Deviation: σ =
• Shape: The Poisson distribution is typically right-skewed, especially
for small λ . As λ increases, it approximates a normal distribution.
• Additivity: If X ~ Poisson( and Y~ Poisson() are independent, then X
+ Y ~Poisson(+ ).
Example : A coffee shop averages 4 customer arrivals per
10-minute interval . What is the probability of exactly 3
customers arriving in a 10-minute period
• P(X = 3) =
•λ=4 k=3
• = = 64
• = ≈ 0.01832
• 3! = 6
• P(X = 3) = ≈ ≈ 0.1954
• Result: The probability is approximately 0.1954 (19.54%).
factory produces items with an average of 0.5 defects
per unit. What is the probability of finding no
defects in a randomly selected unit
• P(X = 0) =
• λ = 0.5
• k=0
• =1
• = ≈ 0.60653
• 0! = 1
• P(X = 0) = ≈ 0.6065
• Result: The probability is approximately 0.6065 (60.65%).
Cumulative Poisson Probability

• To find the probability of at most

k events:

• P(X ≤ k) =
Normal probability distribution
• The normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution
characterized by
• :A bell-shaped curve that is symmetric about the mean.
• Two parameters: the mean µ , which determines the center, and the
standard deviation σ , which determines the spread.
• Applicability to many natural phenomena (e.g., heights, test scores) due
to the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the sum or average of
many independent random variables approximates a normal distribution.
• The normal distribution is used for continuous random variables, unlike
the binomial or Poisson distributions, which are for discrete variables.
Normal Probability Density function
• The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution is;

• f(x) =

• Where :f(x): The probability density at value x .

• µ: Mean of the distribution (center of the curve).
• σ: Standard deviation (spread of the curve).
• π :3.14159 : Mathematical constant.
• e ≈ 2.71828 : Base of the natural logarithm.
• x : The value of the continuous random variable .
• The PDF gives the relative likelihood of x , but probabilities for intervals are calculated by
integrating the PDF over the desired range.
Assumptions
• The normal distribution assumes:
• Continuity: The random variable is continuous, taking any real value.
• Symmetry: The distribution is symmetric about the mean.
• Fixed Parameters: The mean µ and standard deviation σ are constant
for a given distribution .
• Independence: When applied to real-world data, observations are often
assumed independent.
Properties
• Mean: The mean u is the center of the distribution, where the peak occurs.
• Variance: The variance is , and the standard deviation is σ .
• Symmetry: The distribution is symmetric, so
• P(X <µ - a) = P(X >µ + a) .
• Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule):
• Approximately 68% of data lies within 1 standard deviation (µ±σ).
• Approximately 95% lies within 2 standard deviations (µ ± 2σ).
• Approximately 99.7% lies within 3 standard deviations (µ± 3σ ).
• Total Area: The area under the curve equals 1, representing the total probability.
• Standard Normal Distribution: A special case with µ = 0 and σ = 1, used for
standardization.
Standard Normal Distribution
• To simplify calculations, any normal distribution can be converted to the
standard normal distribution using the z-score
• z=
• Where:
• z : Standardized value (z-score).
• x: Original value.
• µ : Mean.
• σ: Standard deviation.
• The standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of
1. Probabilities are found using the standard normal table (z-table) or software.
Probability Calculations
• Since the normal distribution is continuous, probabilities are calculated for
intervals (not specific values) by integrating the PDF. For a range [a, b]
𝑏

∫ f ( x ) dx
• P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = 𝑎

• In practice, we use z-scores and the standard normal distribution:

• Convert a and b to z-scores:
• =
• =
• Find P( ≤Z ≤ ) using a z-table or software, where Z is the standard normal
variable.
Applications
• The normal distribution is used in:
• Statistics: Modeling sample means and testing hypotheses (due to the
Central Limit Theorem).
• Quality Control: Analyzing product measurements (e.g., lengths,
weights).
• Finance: Modeling stock returns or risk assessments.
• Natural Sciences: Describing biological measurements (e.g., heights,
blood pressure).
• Social Sciences: Analyzing test scores, survey responses, or behavioral
data.
Example:The heights of adult males in a population are normally
distributed with a mean of 70 inches (u = 70) and a standard
deviation of 3 inches (σ = 3 ). What is the probability that a
randomly selected male is between 67 and 73 inches tall?
• Solution: We need P(67≤ X≤ 73) .
• Convert to z-scores:
• For x = 67 : z = = -1
• For x = 73 : z = = 1
• Find the probability using the standard normal distribution:
• P(67≤ X ≤ 73) = P(-1≤ Z ≤ 1)
• From a z-table,
• P(Z ≤ 1) ≈ 0.8413 , and
• P(Z ≤ -1) = 1 - P(Z≤ 1) ≈ 1 - 0.8413 = 0.1587 .
• P(-1≤ Z ≤ 1) = P(Z≤ 1) - P(Z≤ -1) ≈ 0.8413 - 0.1587 = 0.6826
• Result: The probability is approximately 0.6826 (68.26%), consistent with the empirical rule.
Test scores are normally distributed with a mean of 80 (u =
80) and a standard deviation of 10 (σ= 10). What is the
probability that a student scores at least 90?
• Solution: We need P(X ≥ 90) .
• Convert to z-score:
• For x = 90 : z = = 1
• Find the probability: P(X ≥ 90) = P(Z ≥ 1) = 1 - P(Z ≤ 1)
• From a z-table,
• P(Z≤ 1) ≈ 0.8413
• P(Z≥ 1) = 1 - 0.8413 = 0.1587
• Result: The probability is approximately 0.1587 (15.87%).