Topic 4

Basic Probability
Concepts of Probability

• Random Experiment

• Sample Space

• Event Types
 Concepts of Probability –
Random Experiment
• Random Experiment is an Experiment is called a random experiment
if when conducted repeatedly under essentially homogenous
conditions, the result is not unique but may be one of the various
possible outcomes.
• An experiment is a process that produces an outcome.
Concepts of Probability - Random
Experiment
• Few examples of experiments are as follows:
(i) Tossing a coin and observing the face that appears.
(ii) Measuring blood pressure of a group of individuals,
(ii) checking an automobile’s petrol mileage,
(iii) Throwing a dice
(iv) Testing a product to determine whether it is defective or an
acceptable product.
(v) Measuring daily rainfall, and so on.
Concepts of Probability – Sample Space
• The set of all possible distinct outcomes (events) for a random
experiment is called the sample space (or event space) provided.
(i) no two or more of these outcomes can occur simultaneously;
(ii) exactly one of the outcomes must occur, whenever the experiment is
performed.

• Sample space is denoted by the capital letter .

Concepts of Probability – Sample
Space
• Consider the experiment of tossing two coins. The four possible
outcomes are the following sample events
• E1 : HH E2 = HT E3 : TH E4 : TT
• The sample space is S = {E1, E2, E3, E4}.
• The sample events can be displayed in a tree diagram shown in Fig.
Concepts of Probability – Sample
Space
• Consider the experiment of recording a person’s blood type. The four possible
outcomes are the following simple events:
• E1 : Blood type A E2 : Blood type B E3 : Blood type AB E4 : Blood type
O
• The sample space is S = {E1, E2, E3, E4}.
• Some experiments can be generated in stages and sample space can be displayed in
a tree diagram. Each successive level of branching on the tree corresponds to a step
required to generate the final outcome as shown in Fig. The sample events in the
tree diagram form the sample space S = {E1, E2, E3, . . ., E8}.
Concepts of Probability – Event Type
• A single possible outcome (or result) of an experiment is called a
simple (or elementary) event.
• An event is the set (or collection) of one or more simple events of an
experiment in the sample space and having a specific common
characteristic.
• For example, for the above-defined sample space S, the collection (H,
T), (T, H) is the event containing simple event as: H or T.
Concepts of Probability – Event Type
1. Mutually Exclusive Events: If two or more events cannot occur
simultaneously in a single trial of an experiment, then such events
are called mutually exclusive events or disjoint events. For example,
the numbers 2 and 3 cannot occur simultaneously on the roll of a
dice.

2. Collectively Exhaustive Events: The total number of possible

outcomes of a random experiment is called the exhaustive cases for
the experiment.
Concepts of Probability – Event Type
3. Independent and Dependent Events :
• Outcome of one event does not affect, and is not affected by, the other event.
Example: The outcomes of successive tosses of a coin are independent of its
preceding toss.
• However, two or more events are said to be dependent if information about
one tells something about the other. booking a ticket early and power cut in
theatre
• For example, drawing of a card (say a queen) from a pack of playing cards
without replacement reduces the chances of drawing a queen in the
subsequent draws.
Concepts of Probability – Event Type
4. Equally Likely Events:
• Two or more events are said to be equally likely if each has an equal chance
to occur.
• For example, each number may be expected to occur on the uppermost
face of a rolling die the same number of times in the long run.

5. Complementary Events: Two events are said to

be complementary when one event occurs if and only if the other
does not. In tossing of coin, head and tail are complementary
events. Similarly in rolling a die, occurrence of odd and even
numbers are complementary events.
Concepts of Probability – Event Type
5. Compound Events: When two or more events occur in connection
with each other, then their simultaneous occurrence is called a
compound event. For example, in rolling of a die getting an even
number which is less than 5 or in a deck of cards, getting a king of
spade.
 Probability: Concepts and Terminologies

• Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

• Probability values are always assigned on a scale of 0 to 1.

• A probability near zero indicates an event is quite unlikely to occur.

• A probability near one indicates an event is almost certain to occur.

Probability – Classical Approach
If a random experiment results in exhaustive, mutually exclusive
and equally likely outcomes out of which are favourable to the
happening of an event , then the probability of occurrence of ,
usually denoted by is given by

• The sum of probabilities of all the events of an experiment is equal to 1.

• If P(A) is the probability of any event any event A, then P()is the
probability of its complementary event andP(A)+P() = 1 .
Probability – Classical Approach
Remark 1: Probability of non occurrence of is given by :
Remark 2:
Remark 3: is known as probability of success can be written as and is
known as probability of failure, and can be written as :
 Classical Method of Assigning Probability: Examples
Example-1: In tossing of two coins, find the probability of
(i) one head,
(ii) at least one head,
(iii) no heads.

Example-2: Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining:
(a) all heads
(b) two heads
(c) one head
(d) at least one head
(e) at least two heads,
(f) all tails
 Classical Method of Assigning Probability: Examples

Example-3: In rolling of a die, find the probability of getting (i) an even number, (ii) a
prime number, (ii) a perfect square.

Example-4: In rolling of two dice, find the probability that sum of both the upper faces is
(i) equal to 10, (ii) at least 10, (iii) more than 10.

Example-5: In a single throw of two dice, find the probability of getting (a) a total of 11,
(b) a total of 9 and (c) same number on both the dice.

Example-6: What is the probability that a leap year, selected at random, will contain 53
Sundays?
Glossary of Probability Terms
 Laws of Probability
 Additive Law: If A and B are two events, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), if they are mutually exclusive
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B), if they are not mutually exclusive

Example-1:

Find probability that no of persons either 2 or 3.

 Laws of Probability
Additive Law: Examples
Example-2: In a bank, 50% of the accounts are current accounts, 30% are savings account
and rest are loan accounts. What is the probability that a randomly selected customer is
having either a current account or a savings account?

Example-3: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, find the probability that it is either a
queen or a heart.

Example-4: The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the
probability that he will not get an electrical contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at
least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both?
 Laws of Probability
Additive Law: Examples
 Laws of Probability
Multiplicative Law

Multiplicative Law: If A and B are two events, then

a. P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B), if they are independent
b. P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B given A) if they are not independent, or
c. P(A and B) = P(B)*P(A given B) if they are not independent
 Laws of Probability
Multiplicative Law: Examples

Example-1: A store has a Rayban, Fastrack and Armani sunglasses. It

also has a Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Louis Philippe and UCB shirts. If you
choose one sunglass and one shirt at random, what is the probability
that you choose the Rayban and the UCB shirt?

Example-2: The odds against student X solving a Business Statistics

problem are 8 to 6, and odds in favour of student Y solving the problem
are 14 to 16.
a) What is the chance that the problem will be solved if they both try
independently of each other?
b) What is the probability that none of them is able to solve the
problem?
Examples
Example-3: A husband and wife appear in an interview for two
vacancies in the same post. The probability of husband’s selection is
1/7 and that of wife’s selection is 1/5. What is the probability that
(a) both of them will be selected,
(b) none of them will be selected.

Example-4: A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50

persons, 20 of them women and 30 men, 10 of them knowing Hindi
and 40 not, 15 of them being teachers and the remaining 35 not. What
is the probability of the university selecting a Hindi-knowing woman
teacher?
Examples
Example-5: A retail store has 40 packets of biscuits out of which 10
packets are of brand ‘X’. Two customers come, one after the other and
buy a packet of biscuit. What is the probability that both of them will
buy brand ‘X’ biscuits?
Marginal, Joint, Conditional
Probability
A leading hair salon obtained the data about the age and
marital status of its customers. According to their survey 120
single customers are below 30 years of age and 30 single
customers are more than 30 years of age. Out of married
customers 35 are less than 30 years of age and 75 are more
than 30 years of age. Based on the given data formulate a
contingency table and find out the following probabilities.
1. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is aged below 30 years?
2. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is aged above 30 years?
3. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is single?
4. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is married?
5. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he is aged below 30 years and
single?
6. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he is aged below 30 years and
married?
7. If a customer is selected at random, what is the probability that he is aged above 30 years and
married?
8. Given that the customer selected at random is single what is the probability that he/she is
above 30 years of age?
9. Given that the customer selected at random is married what is the probability that he/she is
above 30 years of age?
10. Given that the customer selected at random is above 30 years of age what is the probability
that he/she is married?
Bayes Theorem
• The Bayes’ theorem is useful in revising the original probability estimates of
known outcomes as we gain additional information about these outcomes. The
prior probabilities, when changed in the light of new information, are called
revised or posterior probabilities
• Suppose A1, A2,…. An represent n mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
events with prior marginal probabilities P(A1), P(A2), . . ., P(An)
• Let B be an arbitrary event with conditional probabilities P(B | A1), P(B | A2), . . .,
P(B | An) are also known.
• Given the information that outcome B has occured, the revised (or posterior)
probabilities P(Ai | B) are determined with the help of Bayes’ theorem using the
formula:
Examples
Example-1: A bag 1 contains 4 white and 6 black balls while another
Bag 2 contains 4 white and 3 black balls. One ball is drawn at random
from one of the bags, and it is found to be black. Find the probability
that it was drawn from Bag I.

Example-2: Three pots contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black, and 5 red,
5 black balls respectively. One of the pots is selected at random and a
ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is red, find the probability that it
is drawn from the first pot.