Concepts of Probability
Definition of Probability
• It is the measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur.
• It expresses uncertainty in terms of numbers, ranging from 0 to 1 (or
0% to 100%).
• 0 → the event is impossible.
• 1 → the event is certain.
• Values between 0 and 1 represent varying degrees of likelihood.
Basic terms in Probability
• Experiment → A process that produces an outcome.
Example: tossing a coin, rolling a die, drawing a card.
• Sample Space (S) → The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Example: Tossing a coin → S = {Head, Tail}.
• Event (E) → A specific outcome or group of outcomes from the
sample space.
Example: Getting an even number when rolling a die
E = {2, 4, 6}.
• Favorable Outcomes → The outcomes that satisfy the event.
Formula of Probability
Types of Probability
1 Theoretical (Classical) Probability
.
• Based on reasoning or known possible outcomes.
• Based on the assumption that all outcomes are equally likely.
Example: The probability of getting face in a standard deck of card is
or .
Types of Probability (cont.)
2. Experimental (Empirical) Probability
• Based on observations and experiments.
Example: Toss a coin 100 times, if Head appears 55 times → P(Head) = 55/100
= 0.55. or 55%
Types of Probability (cont.)
• Subjective Probability
• Based on intuition, personal judgment, or experience rather than exact data.
• Example: A doctor estimating the chance of a patient’s recovery, or a
businessman predicting success in a new venture.
Rules in Probability
1. Rule of Probability Values
• The probability of any event EEE is always between 0 and 1.
0≤P(E)≤1
P(E)=0 means the event is impossible.
P(E)=1 means the event is certain.
2. Rule of Complementary Events
• The probability that an event does not occur is:
P(E′)=1−P(E)
Example: If the probability of raining today is 0.3, then the probability of not
raining is 0.7.
Rules in Probability (cont.)
• Addition Rule
• For mutually exclusive events (cannot happen at the same time):
• For mutually inclusive events (can overlap):
Rules in Probability (cont.)
4. Multiplication Rule
• For independent events (one does not affect the other):
• For dependent events (outcome of one affects the other):
Rules in Probability (cont.)
5. Rule of Total Probability
Summary
• Probabilities are always between 0 and 1.
• Complements add up to 1.
• "OR" → use addition rule.
• "AND" → use multiplication rule.
• The total probability of all possible outcomes = 1.
Exercises
Theoretical (Classical) Probability
Exercises on Theoretical (Classical) Probability
• A die will be casted, find the
probability that the outcome is: Answer Key
1. 1/6
1. 4 2. ½
3. 1/3
2. Even number 4. 2/3
3. Multiples of 3 5. 0
6. 0
4. Less than 5
5. More than 6
6. Less than 1
Exercises on Theoretical (Classical) Probability
• In a standard deck of card (52 cards), if you pick
a card randomly, find the probability that the
card drawn is: Answer key
1. An ace 1. 1/13
2. A face 2. 3/13
3. A red card 3. ½
4. A spade 4. ¼
5. A one-eye face card 5. 3/52
6. A black- faced card 6. 3/26
7. A black king 7. 1/26
8. A queen of hearts 8. 1/52
Exercises on Theoretical (Classical) Probability
• Inside the box, there are 5 green, 10 red, 8
blue and 2 yellow marbles. If you randomly
draw 1 marble, find the probability of getting Answer key
the following: 1. 1/5
1. A green marble 2. 2/25
2. A yellow marble 3. 8/25
3. A blue marble 4. 23/25
4. Not a yellow marble 5. 4/5
5. Not a green marble 6. 3/5
6. Not a red marble
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
• Addition Rule
• For mutually exclusive events (cannot happen at the same time):
• For mutually inclusive events (can overlap):
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
(Mutually Exclusive)
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
(Mutually Exclusive)
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
(Mutually Inclusive)
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability (Mutually Inclusive)
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
• A die will be casted, find the
probability that the outcome is:
1. 4 or 5 Answer Key
1. 1/3
2. Less than 2 or even number 2. 2/3
3. 2/3
3. Multiples of 2 or multiples of 3 4. 1/2
5. 2/3
4. 3 or less than 4
6. 1/3
5. Even number or less than 4
6. Less than 1 or greater than 4
Exercises on Addition Rules in Probability
• In a standard deck of card (52 cards), if you pick
a card randomly, find the probability that the
card drawn is: Answer key
1. An ace or a king 1. 2/13
2. A face or five 2. 4/13
3. A red card or a face 3. 19/52
4. A spade or a face 4. 11/26
5. An ace or a face 5. 3/52
6. A black card or a diamond 6. 3/4
7. A black king or a club 7. 7/26
8. A queen of hearts or a face 8. 3/13
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
4. Multiplication Rule
• For independent events (one does not affect the other):
• For dependent events (outcome of one affects the other):
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(independent events)
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(independent events)
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability (independent
events)
1. Two dice were tossed, find the probability that the
outcomes were both five. Answer Key
1. 1/36
2. A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of 2. 1/8
getting three heads?
3. 1/12
3. A coin and a die are tossed. Find the probability that 4. 1/36
both outcomes were 2? 5. 1/4
4. A die is tossed twice, what is the probability that that
outcomes are 3 and 5?
5. Two coins were tossed, find the probability that one is
head and the other one is tail?
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(independent events)
• A company interviews candidates. The probability that an
applicant passes the written exam is 0.6, and the probability
that the same applicant passes the interview is 0.5. If the two
events are independent, what is the probability that an applicant
passes both the written exam and the interview?
Answer: 0.30 or 30%
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(dependent events)
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(dependent events)
Exercises on Multiplication Rules in Probability
(dependent events)
Please answer the given exercises in 1 whole. Pass it
next meeting.
1. A die is rolled once. What is the probability of getting a 3 or a 5?
2. From a standard 52-card deck, what is the probability of drawing a king or a queen?
3. A coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting a head or a tail?
4. A die is rolled once. What is the probability of getting a number greater than 3 or an even
number?
5. From a standard 52-card deck, what is the probability of drawing a king or a spade?
6. Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting a head on the first coin or at least
one tail?
7. A die is rolled twice. What is the probability of getting a 4 on the first roll and a 6 on the second roll?
8. A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of getting three heads?
9. A family is expecting two children. Assuming equal chance for boys and girls, what is the probability
that both are girls?
10. A box contains 6 red balls and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement. What is the
probability that both are red?
11. From a deck of 52 cards, two cards are drawn without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing a king then a queen?
12. A jar contains 8 black marbles and 2 white marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement.
What is the probability that both are white?
Thank you!