Chapter
3
Collecting
Information
and
Forecasting
Demand
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Forecasting and Demand
Measurement
• Market demand measures
– Potential market
– Available market
– Target market
– Penetrated market
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Definition of markets for cryptocurrencies:
[Link]: People with savings (cash,
building, ….)
[Link]: People who are traders
(excluded nonmonetary savings,
investments)
[Link] market: People who have / had
coins
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Market demand vocabulary
• Market share
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• Estimate market size (2020) for adult shampoo in
Turkey
• Population 84 million
• Population children: 22 million
• Population adult: 84-22=62 million
• Population male:31 million use 1.5 units per year
• Population female: 31 million use 3 units per year
• Total units of shampoo used by male: 31x1,5= 47 million
• Total units of shampoo used by female: 31 x 3=93 million
• Total units of shampoo used per year= 93+47= 140 million
• Total value= 140 million x 2 $ = 280 mil $
• Total volume= 140 million x 500 ml.= 70 million liters
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ESTIMATE MARKET SIZE OF MOVIE
THEATRES IN VALUE FOR 2021 IN
TURKEY
• Market size in value: 2 billion $
• Number of movies: 567 (sinema)
• Number of movie theaters : 2.093
(salon)
• Number of chairs 268,000
*source: Google Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. 3-7
Estimating Current Demand
• Total market potential
– Chain-ratio method
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• I am opening a döner shop in Haliç campus. Open from 8.30-
17.30 (target market: students)
• Number of Haliç students: 11,000
• Number of undergraduate students: x80%
• Number of non vegetarian students x 95%
• Number of students who prefer “fast” meal: x35%
• 11.000x0.80x0.95x0.35 = 2900 students
• 1000 students are coming to campus everyday
• 20% 200 students
• Sales forecast / day = 200 sandwiches
• Assumption 1: ramadan sales will decrease by 70%
• Assumption 2: no summer sales. We will be closed
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Estimating Current Demand
• Industry sales and market share
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Estimating future demand
• Survey of buyers’ intentions
– Forecasting and purchase probability scale
• Composite of sales force opinions
• Expert opinion
• Past-sales analysis
• Market-test method
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