Navigating Global
Steel Imbalances
Challenges & Opportunities for the
MENA Region
Arab Steel Summit 2025
Global Steel Imbalances & Overcapacity
2900
2500
• Global steel capacity reached 2,432 mmt in 2023, while
mmt
demand was only about 1,889 mmt (543 mmt excess).
2100
• Excess capacity is projected to rise to ~721 mmt by
2027 as capacity additions outpace demand.
1700 • Planned additions of 165 mmt (6.7%) between 2025–
2023 2027 (proj) 27; demand growth is only ~0.7% per year.
Year
Capacity Demand
[1][2][3]
Trade Distortions & Market Pressures
80
60 • 81 anti-dumping investigations were launched in 2024 — nearly
Number of cases
five times the 2023 level.
40 • Chinese subsidies are ten times higher than OECD economies,
fuelling exports that more than doubled since 2020 (118 mmt in
20 2024).
• Persistent oversupply and price pressures have driven industry
profitability towards historic lows, threatening decarbonisation
0
efforts as 40% of new capacity relies on BF/BOF.
2023 2024
Year
[4][5][6][2]
MENA Steel Industry: Growth & DRI Hub
150
Index (2018=100)
130
MENA
110
Rest of world
90
2018 2023 2026 (proj)
Year
• MENA is the world’s leading hub for gas ‑based DRI: 61 Mt produced in 2023, representing ~45% of global output.
• Despite accounting for <4% of global steel production, MENA steelmaking capacity grew 25.6% between 2018–23 and is projected to
rise another 12–19% by 2026.
• Dominant DRI‑EAF route provides lower emissions and flexibility for green hydrogen; renewables and hydrogen projects in the
pipeline exceed 200 GW.
[7][8][9]
Challenges & Risks for MENA
• Uncoordinated capacity expansions risk creating a regional steel
surplus without an outlet.
• Domestic markets remain limited and highly sensitive to imports of
cheaper steel, depressing prices and threatening viability.
• Heavy reliance on imported iron ore and pellets exposes producers to
geopolitical, logistical and cost disruptions.
• Mounting trade protectionism worldwide makes exports more difficult
and heightens competitive pressures.
[10][11][4]
Strategies for Sustainable Competitiveness
Regional Coordination Market Alignment
Match production with demand; diversify export
Develop joint strategies to align capacity expansions,
markets; leverage trade agreements and avoid
share market intelligence and avoid duplication.
dumping.
Green Steel & Innovation Fair Trade & Resilience
Accelerate adoption of DRI‑EAF, green hydrogen and Strengthen trade remedies, improve supply ‑chain
renewable energy; invest in R&D and workforce logistics, secure raw material supplies and encourage
skills. cross‑border partnerships.
[8][9][10]