SESSION-6
PROF. KIRIT GHOSH
RANDOM VARIABLES
• A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment
• Discrete and continuous
RANDOM VARIABLES
Example: JSL Appliances
Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day, where
x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
Example: JSL Appliances
Let x = number of customers arriving in one day, where x
can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .
Illustration Random Variable x Type
Family size x = Number of dependents reported on Discrete
tax return
Distance from home to stores x = Distance in miles from home Continuous
on a highway to the store site
Own dog or cat x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
= 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph,
or formula
• The probability distribution is defined by a probability function,
denoted by f(x), that provides the probability for each value of the
random variable.
• The required conditions for a discrete probability function are
DISCRETE PROBABILITY FUNCTION
DISCRETE UNIFORM
• The discrete uniform probability distribution is the simplest example of
a discrete probability distribution given by a formula.
• The discrete uniform probability function is
EXPECTED VALUE
• The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of its
central location.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
• The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random
variable.
BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS
• A bivariate probability distribution is a probability distribution involving
two random variables.
• For example, here are the daily sales at the DiCarlo Motors automobile
dealership in Saratoga, New York and DiCarlo, another dealership in
Geneva, New York. The table shows the number of cars sold at each of
the dealerships over a 300-day period.
COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION
Range?
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical
trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on each
trial.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not
change from trial to trial. (This is referred to as the
stationarity assumption.)
4. The trials are independent.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY FUNCTION
• Our interest is in the number of successes occurring
in the n trials.
• Let x denote the number of successes occurring in
the n trials.
• Binomial Probability Function:
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on
one trial
n = the number of trials
BINOMIAL
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate for its
employees. In recent years, management has seen a turnover of 10%
of the hourly employees annually.
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random, management
estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the
company next year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that
1 of them will leave the company this year?
BINOMIAL
• The expected value is:
• The variance
is:
• The standard
deviation is:
QUESTION:
• A company manufactures light bulbs, and each bulb produced has a
95% chance of passing quality control. Suppose the company tests a
random sample of 20 bulbs from a day’s production.
• Let X be the number of bulbs that pass quality control.
• (a) What is the expected number (mean) of bulbs that will pass?
(b) What is the variance of the number of bulbs that will pass?
(c) What is the standard deviation?
(d) What do these values tell you about the distribution of XXX?
Q1
• A factory produces screws, and the probability that a screw is defective
is 0.02. If 10 screws are selected at random, what is the probability that
exactly one is defective?
Q2
• In a multiple-choice quiz, each question has 4 options and only one
correct answer. A student guesses on 6 questions.
• What is the probability that the student gets at most 2 questions
correct?
Q3
• A call center receives customer complaints. The probability that any
given call is a complaint is 0.1. If 50 calls are received in a day:
• (a) What is the expected number of complaint calls?
(b) What is the variance?
(c) What is the standard deviation?
Q4
• A product team estimates that 70% of users who try their app will
return the next day. If 12 users try the app today, what is the
probability that at least 10 return tomorrow?
Q5
• A hospital tests a new vaccine and finds that 95% of people build
immunity. In a batch of 30 people:
• (a) What is the probability that fewer than 28 build immunity?
(b) Should the hospital be concerned if fewer than 28 do, assuming a
threshold of 90%?
POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
• A Poisson distributed random variable is often useful in estimating
the number of occurrences over a specified interval of time or space.
• It is a discrete random variable that may assume an infinite sequence
of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).
• Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:
• number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of pine board
• number of vehicles arriving at a toll booth in one hour
• Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model the arrival of phone
calls.
POISSON
Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment
[Link] probability of an occurrence is the same for any two
intervals of equal length.
[Link] occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is
independent of the occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
other interval.
3. Poisson Probability Function:
POISSON
Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average
rate of 6 per hour on weekend evenings.
What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening?
Q1
• A call center receives an average of 5 calls per hour. You want to
know the probability that exactly 3 calls will come in during the next
hour.
Q2
• A small town library finds that on average 2 people per hour come
to borrow books.
Q: What is the probability that no one will come in the next hour?
Q3
On average, 3 accidents occur per month at a certain
intersection.
Q: What's the probability of observing exactly 5 accidents
next month?
Q4
A neighborhood experiences 1 power failure every 4 months on average.
Q: What's the probability of 2 power failures occurring in 4 months?
Q5
You receive an average of 10 emails per day.
Q: What is the probability you receive exactly 7 emails tomorrow?
Q8
A football team scores an average of 2 goals per match.
Q: What’s the probability they score exactly 3 goals in a match?