CONTINGENCY PLAN
Developing Scenarios
What is a Scenario
Anaccount or synopsis of a possible
course of events that could occur, which
forms the basis for planning
assumptions (for example, a blackout
onboard a tanker near the coast line can
lead to drifting then grounding that can
lead to a potential damage to the tanks
spreading oil over the coast line)
Developing scenarios for the
planning process
Scenarios provide the underlying
planning assumptions used to estimate
likely needs in terms of both response
capacity and needs of resources.
Contingency plans can then be
developed based on scenarios
To define a scenario process, it is
essential to consider the following
Probability
or likelihood
Consequence of the risk or the disaster
and;.
Considering the capacity and resources
available
Probability or likelihood
Can be determined by experts, or
brainstorming between the involved
parties
Consequence
Predicting the impact of the disaster and
its consequence can help to develop an
Appropriate reaction
Using the “what if” question can help to
know the impact of a disaster or;
Depending on another accidents
scenarios that occurred at the past.
capacity and resources
Keeping in mind capacity and resources
when developing the scenario, yes it
controls the response that is done in the
scenario but it must not limit the
thinking of predicting.
FinallyPlan for the worst scenario and
think the unthinkable to form an
effective scenario that helps in a
contingency plan