Geometric

A geometric distribution is defined as a discrete probability distribution of a random variable “x” which
satisfies some of the conditions. The geometric distribution conditions are
•A phenomenon that has a series of trials
•Each trial has only two possible outcomes – either success or failure
•The probability of success is the same for each trial

1. If the probability that a target is destroyed on any one shot is 0·5, what is the Probability that it
would be destroyed on 6th attempt?
2. A couple decides to have children until they have a male child. What is the probability
distribution of the number of children they would have ? If the probability of a male child' in
their community is 1/3, how many children are they expected to have before the first male child
is born ?
Memory-less Property:

A random variable X is said to have memory-less property if :

P(X> s+t | X >s) = P(X > t)

• The memoryless property (also called the forgetfulness property) means that a given probability distribution is
independent of its history. Any time may be marked down as time zero.
• If a probability distribution has the memoryless property the likelihood of something happening in the future
has no relation to whether or not it has happened in the past. The history of the function is irrelevant to the

• future.
For a real life example, consider independent failures of computer hardware. When figuring the probability of
a (new, independent) hardware failure it doesn’t matter how frequently or when your hardware failed in the
past. The probability it will fail five minutes from now is independent of the fact that it hasn’t failed for three
months. The probability distribution can be modeled by the exponential distribution or Weibull distribution,
and it’s memoryless.
 Hypergeometric Distribution
• Sampling without replacement from a finite population
• The number of objects in the population is denoted N.
• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes, success and failure.
• Trials are not independent
• X (k) is the number of successes in the n trials
• The binomial is an acceptable approximation,
if n < 5% N. Otherwise it is not.
 Hypergeometric Distribution
Consider an urn with N balls, M of which are white and N - M are red. Suppose that we draw a sample of n balls at random
(without replacement) from the urn, then the probability of getting k white balls out of n,

(k < n) is
( )(
𝑀
𝑘 ) 𝑁−𝑀
𝑛 −𝑘

( ) 𝑁
𝑛
Definition: A discrete random variable X is said to follow the hypergeometric distribution if it assumes
only non-negative values and its probability mass function is given by

= 0 , otherwise

N, M and n are known as the three parameters of hypergeometric distribution.

Mean = E 𝑉 ( 𝑋 )=
𝑛𝑀 ( 𝑁 − 𝑀 )( 𝑁 − 𝑛)
( 𝑁 −1) 𝑁 2
 Problem..
1. A taxi cab company has 12 Ambassadors and 8 Fiats. If 5 of these taxi cabs are in the shop for repairs and
Ambassador is as likely to in for repairs as a fiat. what is the-probability that;
i) 3 of them are Ambassadors and 2 are fiats ?
ii) At least 3 of them are ambassadors? And
iii) All 5 of them are of the same make? N = size of the population
n = sample size

i¿
( )(
3 )
12 2 0 − 12
5 −3 ¿
( 12
3 )( 8
2 ) M (A) = number of successes in the population
K (x) = number of successes in the sample; sampling is done

(5) 20 ( 2 0
5 ) without replacement

ii ¿ ∑
5( )( 12
𝑘
2 0 − 12
5−𝑘 )
𝑘=3
(5)
20

2. Explain how you will use hypergeomelric model to estimate the number of fish in a lake.

[Link]
2. Suppose 18 major computer companies operate in the United States and that 12 are located in California’s
Silicon Valley. If three computer companies are selected randomly from the entire list, what is the probability
that one or more of the selected companies are located in the Silicon Valley?

N = 18, n = 3, M (A) = 12, and x(k) ≥ 1

( )(
12
1 ) +¿ ( )(
1 8 − 12
3−1 ) +¿ = 0.9755
12
2
1 8 − 12
3−2

(3)
18
(3)
18

= 0.9755
1 - P (k = 0 ƒN = 18, n = 3, M = 12)
 Problem..
3. Shown here are the top 19 companies in the world in terms of oil refining capacity. Some of the companies are
privately owned and others are state owned. Suppose six companies are randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that exactly one company is privately owned?
b. What is the probability that exactly four companies are privately owned?
c. What is the probability that all six companies are privately owned?
d. What is the probability that none of the companies is privately owned?
N = 19 n = 6
b)
a) P(k = 1 P(k= 4 private)
private) ; M = 12
C1 8 C5 (11)(56) C 4 8 C 2 (330)(28)
11
 .0227 11
 .3406
19 C 6 27,132 19 C 6 27 ,132
c) P(k
= 6 private) d) P(k = 0
private)

C6 8 C0 (462)(1)
11
 .0170 C 0 8 C6 (1)( 28)
C6 27,132
11
 .0010
19 C 6 27,132
19
Hypergeometric Distribution
In a population of 8 males and 16 females, what is the chance of choosing 3 males
and 2 females?

Population Sample
Size 24 (N) 5 (n)
P( x 3) 
ACx N  ACn  x 
Males 8 (A) 3 (x)
N Cn
X P(X)

8C 3 24  8C 5  3 
0 0.103
1 0.343
C5
24

2 0.369

56 120
3 0.158 42,504
4 0.026
5 0.001
.158
Excel’s Hypergeometric Function
N = 24
A= 8
n= 5

X P(X)
0 =HYPGEOMDIST(A6,B$3,B$2,B$1)
1 =HYPGEOMDIST(A7,B$3,B$2,B$1)
2 =HYPGEOMDIST(A8,B$3,B$2,B$1)
3 =HYPGEOMDIST(A9,B$3,B$2,B$1)
=HYPGEOMDIST(A10,B$3,B$2,B$
4 1)
=HYPGEOMDIST(A11,B$3,B$2,B$
5 1)

=SUM(B6:B11)