MATERIALS

MANAGEMENT
Chapter-Two
Materials Demand Forecasting

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

OVERVIEW OF
FORECASTING
 Planning is a fundamental activity of
management. Forecasting forms the basis
of planning. Be it planning for sales and
marketing, production planning, or
manpower planning, forecasts are
extremely important. Before making plans,
an estimate must be made of what
conditions will exist over some future
period. How estimates are made, and with
what accuracy, is another matter, but little
can be done without some form of
estimation. Forecasting is also a basic tool
to help managerial decision-making.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Managerial decisions are seldom made in
the absence of some form of forecasting.
This is because managers’ have to take
decisions in the face of uncertainty every
day, i.e., without knowing what would
happen in the future.
 Forecasting can be understood as a
scientifically calculated guess. “My salesman
looks out of the window and gives me the
sales forecast for the next year” said one
senior manager. This salesman may be quite
effective in his job, but he is only predicting
and not forecasting.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 The scientific basis for More precisely,
forecasting is defined as the process of
estimating future demand in terms of the
quantity, timing, quality, and location for
desired products and services. In a stable
environment with little or a predictable rate of
change, the need for a forecast is non-
existent. As the environment becomes more
complex and dynamic, however, a forecast of
future conditions becomes indispensable.
Simply put it is a prediction of what will occur
in the future. They are usually concerned with
timing, magnitude, or effects of events that
are beyond immediate control.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING

 There are many circumstances and

reasons why forecasting is important for
predicting future demand of materials in
organizations. It, for instance, is
inevitable in developing plans to satisfy
future demand. Most firms cannot wait
until orders are actually received before
they start to plan what to produce.
Customers usually demand delivery in
reasonable time, and manufacturers
must anticipate future demand for
products or services and plan to provide
the capacity and resources to meet that
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Therefore, forecasting is expected to
provide relevant information concerning the
future to marketing, finance, production,
and others that require it for planning
purposes. Before a forecast can be used for
production planning, we must translate
demand for output into requirements for
various production inputs. Hence, an
estimate in physical units of future demand
for a product or service must be converted
into a set of requirements for materials,
labor hours of desired skills, machine hours,
energy and others.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Moreover, forecasting provides the
following benefits to firms: improved
employee relations, improved
materials management, better use
of capital and facilities, improved
customer service, and etc. By
making reasonable forecasts, firms can
minimize short term fluctuations in
production and balance workloads. This
lessens the hiring, firing, and overtime
activities and results in improved labor
relations.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
DEMAND FORECASTING
AND ITS CHARACTERSTCS
Before we discuss the patterns of
demand, it is important to have a clear
understanding of the term demand
management and then followed by the
characteristics of demand.
A. Demand management: Demand
management is defined as the function
of recognizing and managing all
demands for products. It occurs in the
short, medium, and long-term. In the
long-term, demand projections are
needed for strategic business planning
of such things as facilities.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
Demand management includes four major
activities:
 Forecasting- a prediction of future events
used for planning purposes.
 Order processing- this occurs when a
customer’s order is received. The product
may be delivered from finished goods
inventory or it may be made or assembled
to order.
 Making delivery promises
 Interfacing between manufacturing
planning and control and the market
place.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
B. Demand Forecasting; Forecasts depend
up on what is to be done. They must be
made for the strategic business plan, the
production plan, and the master production
schedule. The purpose, planning horizons,
and level of detail vary for each.
 The strategic business plan is concerned
with overall markets and the direction of
the economy over the next two to ten years
or more. Its purpose is to provide time to
plan for those things that take long to
change.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Production planning is concerned with
manufacturing activity for the next one to
three years. For manufacturing, it means
forecasting those items needed for production
planning, such as budgets, labor planning, long
lead time, procurement items, and overall
inventory levels.
 Production planning is concerned with
manufacturing activity for the next one to
three years. For manufacturing, it means
forecasting those items needed for production
planning, such as budgets, labor planning, long
lead time, procurement items, and overall
inventory levels.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Master production scheduling is
concerned with production activity from
the present to a few months ahead.
Forecasts are made for individual items,
as found on a master production
schedule, individual item inventory
levels, raw materials and component
parts, labor planning, and so forth.
Forecasts and plans will probably be
reviewed weekly.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

C. Characteristics of demand; In this chapter,
the term “demand” is used rather than “sales”.
The difference is that sales imply what is actually
sold whereas demand shows the need for the
item. Sometimes demand cannot be satisfied,
and sales will be less than demand
 Before discussing forecasting principles and
techniques, it is best to look at some
characteristics of demand that influence the
forecast and the particular techniques used.
 Demand patterns; If historical data for demand
are plotted against a time scale, they will show
any shapes or consistent patterns that exist. A
pattern is the general shape of a time series.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
There are four reasons for this: trend,
seasonality, random variation, and cycle.
 Trend- : is a long term movement of the item
being forecast. For example, the demand for
personal computers has shown an upward
trend during the last several years without
any long downward movement in the market.
 Seasonality – the demand pattern in figure
2-2 shows each year’s demand fluctuating
depending on the time of year. This
fluctuation may be the result of the weather,
holiday seasons, or particular events that
take place on a seasonal basis.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Random Variations: are movements
that are not predictable and follow no
pattern (and thus are virtually
unpredictable).
 Cycle- A Cycle is an undulating
movement in demand, up and down,
that repeats itself over a lengthy time
span (i.e., more than a year). Cyclical
factors are more difficult to determine
because the time span may be unknown
or the cause of the cycle may not be
considered.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 HISTORICAL PRODUCT DEMAND PATTERN
Seasonal Trend
Unit
s
Dem
ande
d

Years

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

STABLE VERSUS DYNAMIC DEMAND

 The shape of the demand patterns for some

products or services change over time
whereas others do not. Those that retain
the same general shape are called stable
and those that do not are called dynamic.
Dynamic changes can affect the trend,
seasonality, or randomness of the actual
demand. The more stable the demand; the
easier it is to forecast. Usually the average
demand is the forecast for both demand
that exhibit stable and dynamic patterns.


By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

NATURE OF DEMAND

 There are two types of demand:

independent and dependent. Independent
demand is not related to the demand for
any other product. For example, if a
company makes wooden tables, the
demand for the tables is independent.
 The demand for the sides’ ends, legs, and
tops depend on the demand for the tables,
and these are dependent demand items.
 Requirements for dependent demand items
need not be forecast but are calculated
from that of the independent demand item.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Only independent demand items need
be forecast. These are usually end items
or finished goods but should also
include service parts and items supplied
to other plants in the same company
(inter-company transfers).

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING

The following shows pre-requisites to good

forecasts:
 Determine the purpose of the forecast.
This will generally govern the amount of
resources that can be justified for
developing and maintaining the forecast.
 Determine the time horizon. Some
techniques work better in the short term,
others are for intermediate range
applications, and still others work best for
the long range.
 Select an appropriate technique.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Identify the necessary data, and
gather it if necessary. Special
purpose forecasts may require special
collection efforts, whereas more
repetitive forecasting requires ongoing,
routine data collection.
 Make the forecast.
 Monitor forecast errors in order to
determine if the forecast is
performing adequately. If it is not,
take appropriate corrective action.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

In a more general sense, there are four
major characteristics and principles of
forecasts that you have to understand
to make more effective use of
forecasts.
A. Forecasts are usually wrong.
Forecasts attempt to look into the
unknown future and, except by sheer
luck, will be wrong to some degree.
Errors are inevitable and must be
expected.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

B. Every forecast should include an
estimate of error. Since forecasts are
expected to be wrong, the real question
is, “by how much?” every forecast
should include an estimate of error often
expressed as a percentage of (plus and
minus) of the forecast or as a range
between maximum and minimum
values. Estimates of the error can be
made statistically by studying the
variability of demand about the average
demand.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
C. Forecasts are more accurate for
families or groups. The behavior of
individual item in a group is random
even when the group has very stable
characteristics. For example, the marks
for individual students in a class are
more difficult to forecast accurately than
the class average.
D. Forecasts are more appropriate
for nearer time periods. The near
future holds less uncertainty than the
far future
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 The existing forecasting techniques fall into

two major categories: Qualitative models
and quantitative models/methods. The
qualitative models use personal judgment
and involve qualities like intuition and
experience as the basis of forecasts, and are
subjective by their very nature. These
estimates are judgmental and are based on
intuition, estimates, and opinions. Techniques
under this category include Delphi technique,
market research, historical analogy, panel
consensus, grass root estimate sales force
composite and consumer panel survey.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 The quantitative models include time
series analysis, causal and
Simulation models. Time series is a
category of statistical techniques that
uses historical data to predict future
behavior.
 Time series is a category of statistical
techniques that uses historical data to
predict future behavior. In such models,
the demand forecast is done on the
basis of the past demand values.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 They hold the future to be a continuum
of the past and are based on the
premise that what would happen in the
future is a function of what has
happened in the past. Simple moving
average, weighted moving average,
exponential smoothing, linear regression
(particularly least square method) etc
are some of the methods of time series
analysis

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS

A. GRASS ROOTS
 Grass root builds the forecast by adding
successively from the bottom. The
assumption here is the person closest to
the customer or end use of the product
knows its future needs best. Though this
is not always true, in many instances it
is a valid assumption and it is the basis
for this method. Forecasts at this bottom
level are summed and given to the next
higher level.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

B. MARKET RESEARCH
 Firms often hire outside companies
which specialized in marketing research
to conduct this type of forecasting. They
can also do their own market research.
It involves collecting customer data in
variety of ways such as survey,
interviews etc to test hypotheses about
the market. This information is then
used to typically to forecast long-range
and new-product sales.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

C. PANEL CONSENSUS
 In this method, the idea that two heads
are better than one is extrapolated to
the idea that a panel of people from
variety of positions can develop a more
reliable forecast that a narrow group.
Panel forecast are developed through an
open meeting with free exchange of
ideas from al levels management and
individuals.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

D. HISTORICAL ANALOGY
 In trying to forecast a demand for a new
product, an ideal situation would be
where an existing or a generic product
could be used as a model. There are
many ways to classify such an analogy-
for example, contemporary products,
substitutable or competitive products
and products as a function of demand.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

E. DELPHI METHOD
 The method is an iterative group process
and it employs a group of experts, not an
oracle, to obtain the forecasts. Delphi
technique overcomes the problem of panel
consensus where since it conceals the
identity of the participants. As discussed
above the opinion of higher level
individuals will weigh more than that of the
lower level people. The worst case is when
the lower level employee s are threatened
and do not contribute their true feeling.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

F. SALES FORCE COMPOSITE
 In this method of demand forecasting,
each of the members comprising sales
force of a company are asked to
estimate the likely sales in their
respective areas. The estimates are
then reviewed to ensure that they are
realistic. After this, the estimates are
combined at the district, regional and
national level to obtain the overall
forecast

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

G. CONSUMER PANEL SURVEY
 Some marketing research methods
employ consumer panels for making
forecasts. Here, a consumer panel is
maintained and consumers on such a
panel are questioned about their
purchase plans. The goal here is to
forecast demand for products and
services on the basis of the subjective
judgments of the subjects involved.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS
 Time series forecasting models attempt
to predict the future based on past data.
For example, sales figures collected for
each of the past six weeks can be used
to forecast sales for the seventh week.
 Time series forecasting models include
(a) simple moving average, (b)
weighted moving average, (c)
exponential smoothing and (d) Least
square method. In order to determine
which model is most appropriate to use,
the data should be first plotted on the
graph
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
A. SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES
A moving average forecast uses a number of the most
recent actual data values in generating a forecast.
The simple moving average forecast can be computed
using the following equation:

At  1  At  2  At  3  ....  At  n
Ft 
Where, F = Forecast for n the coming period
t

n = Number of periods to be averaged

At-1 = Actual occurrence in the past period
At-2, At-3, and At-n = Actual occurrences two periods
ago, three periods ago, and so on up to n periods
ago.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

  Example 1: The demand for an item
is observed for 15 months and
recorded below:
nth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
6
mand 280 288 266 295 302 310 303 328 309 315 320 332 310 308 320

Required: Calculate (i) 3- monthly and (ii) 4-

monthly moving averages. What is the forecast for
month 16 for each one?

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

Answer: The given data are reproduced
in Table 2-2. The three-monthly moving
averages and four-monthly moving
averages are shown in the third and the
fourth columns of the table. From the
third column, the forecast for month 16
is about 313 units, while a 4-monthly
moving average, in the fourth column,
yields a forecast of about 318 units for
this month.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Table 2-Forecasting Using Moving

MonthAverages
Demand (y) 3-Mohthly Moving Average 4-Monthely Moving Average
1 280
2 288
3 266
4 295 278.0
5 302 283.0 282.3
6 310 287.7 287.8
7 303 302.3 293.3
8 328 305.0 302.5
9 309 313.7 310.8
10 315 313.3 312.5
11 320 317.3 313.8
12 332 314.7 318.0
13 310 322.3 319.0
14 308 320.7 319.3
15 320 316.7 317.5
16 312.7 317.5

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Example 2: Demand over the past
three months has been 120,135, 114,
and 129 units. Using a three month
moving average,
Calculate the forecast for the fourth
month.
Calculate the forecast for  135 fifth
120 the
 month.
114 369
123
3 3
Answer:
 Forecast for month 4 = 135  114  129
126
3
 Forecast for month 5 =
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
B. WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
In this method, weights are assigned to the most
recent data according to the following formula:
F1 = W1 At-1 + W2At-2 + . . . + Wn At-n
Where; W1 = Weight to be given to the actual
occurrence for the period t – 1
W2 = Weight to be given to the actual occurrence
for the period t – 2
Wn = Weight to be given to the actual occurrence
for the period t – n
n = Total number of periods in the forecast
 the sum of all the weights must equal 1.
n

w
i t
i 1
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Example 3: A department store may
find that in a four-month period, the
best forecast is derived by using 40
percent of the actual sales for the most
recent month, 30 percent of two months
ago, 20 percent of three months ago,
and 10 percent of four months ago. The
actual sales experience and the
associated weights are given as follows:

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

Month 1 2 3 4 5
Demand 100 90 105 95 ?

Weights 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

Required: Determine the forecast demand for the fifth

month.
Solution: The forecast for month 5 would be
F5 = 0.40(95) + 0.30(105) + 0.20(90) +
0.10(100)4: Suppose sales for month 5 of the above
Example
example is actually = 38turned + 31.5out + 18
to +
be10 = 97.5
110. Then the forecast
for month 6 would be
F6 = 0.40(110) + 0.30(95) + 0.20(105) + 0.10(90) = 44 +
28.5 + 21 +9 =102.5
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
C. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
 It is a type of moving average forecasting
technique, which weights past data in an
exponential manner so that the most recent
data carry more weight in the moving average.
The formal for exponential smoothing model is

Ft = Ft-1 + α (At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = Forecasted demand for period t.
Ft-1 = Forecasted demand for previous period
α =Smoothing constant
At-1 =Actual demand for previous period.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Example 4: A from uses simple
exponential smoothing with α = 0.1 to
forecast demand. The forecast for the week
of February 1 was 500 units, whereas
actual demand turned out to be 450 units.
a. Forecast the demand for the week of February
8.
b. Assume that the actual demand during the
week of February 8 turned out to be 505 units.
Forecast the demand for the week of February
15. Continue on forecasting though March is
assuming that subsequent demands were
actually 516 and 488 for Feb, 15 and Feb, 22
respectively.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
a. For February 8
Ft = Ft-1 + α (At-1 - Ft-1)
= 500 + 0.1 (450 -500)
= 495 units

b. For February 15
Ft = 495 + 0.1 (505 - 495)
= 496

c. For February 22
Ft = 496 + 0.1 (516 - 496) = 498
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
d. For March, 1
Ft = 498 + 0.1 (488 - 498)
= 497

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

D. TREND PROJECTIONS
In essence, the trend line is drawn on the basis of
the principle of least squares, such a line, like any
other straight line, is represented by the equation:

Where Y1 = the trend values (which is to be

predicted)
a = the Y-axis intercept
b = slope of the trend lien
X= the independent variable, the time
Parameter a and b of the trend line drawn on the
principle of least squares are obtained using the
following pair of normal equations:
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 Y na  bX
 Alternatively XY aX  bX 2
XY  n X Y
b 2
2
X  n X

AND a Y  b X
Here,
Y summation of the values of the dependent variable (the
variable whose values are to be forecasted
X 
Summation of the values of the independent variable (time in
this case)
XY  Summation of the products of the x and corresponding Y
values
X2 
Summation of the squares of values of the independent
variable
n = number of data points
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
  Example 5: The demand of a particular
material that is used to make a product,
in millions of birr, are given below
Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Deman 82 80 90 92 83 94 99 92
d

Using the principle of least squares fit a straight line trend equation to the
above data. Show that the sum of deviations is equal to zero. Also determine
the sum of squares of deviations. Forecast the sales for the years 2001 and
2002.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Solution: The given data are
reproduced in table 2-3. Also shown in
the table is the calculation about the
inputs for obtaining the values of a and
b. notice that the years have been
replaced by time scale with values 0, 1,
2, 3 and so on.
 Table 3 Calculation of Trend
Equation Parameters, and
deviations

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

Year X Sales,Y XY X2 Y1 Y-Yt (Y-Yt)2
1993 0 82 0 0 82 0 0
1994 1 80 80 1 84 -4 16
1995 2 90 180 4 86 4 16
1996 3 92 276 9 88 4 16
1997 4 83 332 16 90 -7 49
1998 5 94 470 25 92 2 4
1999 6 99 594 36 94 5 25
2000 7 92 644 49 96 -4 16
Total 28 712 2576 140 0 142

X 28 Y 712
X   3.5, Y   89
We have, n 8 n 8
XY  n X Y 2576  8 X 3.5 X 89
b 2
 2
2
2
X  n X 140  8(3.5)
a Y  b X 89  2 X 3.5 82
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
Accordingly, the trend equation is:
Y1=82+2X, with origin in 1993.
Forecasting for year 2001 and 2002 are
98 and 100 million birr, respectively as
indicated below:
Y2001 = 82 + 2 X 8 = Birr 98 million (for
year 2001, X = 2001 – 1993 = 8)
Y2002= 82 + 2 X 9 = Birr 100 million

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

  Example 6: Refer the sales data of the
three companies: XYZ Co, ABC Co and
DXL
Year Co XYZ Co. ABC Co. DXL Co.
1987 20 15 13
1988 20 16 17
1989 20 17 16
1990 20 18 16
1991 20 19 21
1992 20 20 20
1993 20 21 20
1994 20 22 23
1995 20 23 25
1996 20 24 24
1997 20 25 25
1998 ? ? ?

Required: Determine the forecasted demand for materials for DXL Co. in year 1998.
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
Solution: In examining the past demand record of XYZ,
it would be reasonable to predict demand for
materials at 20,000 units for year the year1996, based
on the observation that for eleven years demand have
been always 20,000 units. For ABC, the forecasted
demand would be 26,000 units since its demand have
increased at the rate of 1,000 units per year.
 The prediction for XYZ and ABC can be made
intuitively based on the past data. However, DXL Co.
presents a situation which calls for the application of
the least squares regression technique.
 The equation of the line for trend projections and the
mechanisms of determining the parameters such as a
and b indicated above are reproduced here again:
Yt a  bX
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
 If, Yt a  bX , and b , a Y  X

 XY  n XY
b
X
2 2
 nX
 Where: Y= dependent variable; a= fixed
variable (intercept)
 b = slope (m); X = independent
variable
 Table 4: Calculation of Trend Equation
Parameters, and deviations to forecast
the demand for materials for DXL Co. in
year 1998
By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU
YXY
Y 2
0
XX20220
128
110
 Table 4: Calculation of Trend Equation
Parameters, and deviations to forecast
the demand for materials for DXL Co. in
year 1998
Y X X(X) XY YEAR
13 -5 25 -65 1987
17 -4 16 -68 1988
16 -3 9 -48 1989
16 -2 4 -32 1990
21 -1 1 -21 1991
20 0 0 0 1992
20 1 1 20 1993
23 2 4 46 1994
25 3 9 75 1995
24 4 16 96 1996
25 5 25 125 1997
220 0 110 128 1998

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

X

Yt a  bX
 If, a Y  bX
 , and
XY  n X Y 128  11 X 0 X 20 128  0
b 2
 2
 1.163
2
X  n X 110  11(0) 110  0
a Y  b X 20  (1.163)(0) 20
Yt 20  1.163 X
Forecast for year 1998 E.C (6 years ahead from the base year) will be:
Y6=20 +1.163(6) =20 + 6.978 =26.978
Y6= 26.978(1000) =26,978 units.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

CAUSAL METHOD OF FORECASTING (REGRESSION
ANALYSIS)

A. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

The linear regression analysis is used to
define a functional relationship between
two or more correlated variables
B. MULTIPLE REGRESSIONS: The
multiple regressions are an extension of
the simple regression analysis and it
allows building a model with more than
one independent variable.

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU

 Thank You

By Dr. Girma N([Link].), Mgt Dep't HU