Petrel 2014 Uncertainty Analysis and
Assisted History Matching
Module 3: Basic statistics
Course layout
Introduction to sub- Overview of history Basic statistics concept Uncertainty assessment
surface uncertainty matching approaches and definition
analysis
4000 [psi]
Pressure
5500
5000
4500
3500
3000
2500
Workflow creation and Handling of tabular Assisted history
modification Variables matching approach in
Petrel
rate [STB/d]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
[STB/STB]
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
production
02/01/2004
Oilcut
Water
Pressure [psi]
2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
The Workflow editor
The Uncertainty and
optimization process 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Oil production rate [STB/d]
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Water cut [STB/STB]
Oil production rate Case_4_TM vs Observed 1 Pressure Case_4_TM vs Observed 1
Water cut Case_4_TM vs Observed 1 Oil production rate Case_4_TM_82 vs Observed 1
Pressure Case_4_TM_82 vs Observed 1 Water cut Case_4_TM_82 vs Observed 1
Learning objectives
After completing this module, you will be able to:
explain the different terminologies used to express
uncertainty and risk such as expected value, standard
deviation, mean, cumulative distribution function, probability
density function, distribution and ranges
explain what cumulative distribution function (CDF) is and
how it is related to the probability density function (PDF)
use a CDF curve to present the probabilistic estimate of a
reserves (P10, P50, and P90)
Basic terminologies used to express uncertainty
Sampling
Distribution
Probability density function (PDF)
Mean, Variance/standard deviation
Cumulative distribution functions (CDF)
Complementary cumulative distribution
function (CCDF)
Conventions for reporting probabilistic
reserves
Basic definition: Sampling from a distribution
Sampling is selecting a representative subset.
When working with large amounts of data, it is
not possible to investigate each data point.
Example:
If well logs suggest that residual water
saturation is somewhere between 0.17 and
0.2, you would have to select one or several
values in the interval to make your reservoir
models.
Sampling from a distribution
When the value of an input parameter is not exactly known, it is
customary to represent it by a distribution.
Important features of a distribution:
Range: The minimum and maximum value.
Expected value: The average value, if you make many samples.
Probability Density Function (PDF): Defines the likelihood for
different values to occur within the define distribution.
Distribution: Range
Range is the minimum and maximum values in the distribution.
Distribution of X: Expected value
The expected value of a discrete variable x is the same as the
arithmetic mean.
Probability Density Function (PDF)
A statistical function that depict all the possible values and
likelihoods that a random variable can take within a given range.
Probability Density Function: Standard deviation
A standard deviation is a measure of how much the sampled values
differ on average from the mean value.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
CDF at given value x1 shows the probability that any sample from
given probability distribution will have a value less than or equal to x1.
Example: Standard deviation variation for different
normal distribution
( x )2
1 2
2
p( x; , ) e
2
Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF)
CCDF is used to depict how often a randomly picked variable is above a
given value, example X1.
PDF
Probability
X min X1 X max
100
CCDF curve
Probability
0
Basic definitions: Convention for reporting probabilistic
reserves
100 Proven (low case) P 90 (1P)
90
Probability, %
Proven + Probable P 50 (2P)
50
Proven + Probable + Possible P 10 (3P)
10
Reserves
Types of CCDF: Expectation curves
1 Well defined discovery curve
100
1 2
Poorly defined discovery
curve, broad slope
2 3 Exploration curve, low risk,
low reward prospect
Probability, %
4 Exploration curve, high
50 risk, high reward prospect
3
0 100 200 300 400
STOIIP
Exercises
In this exercise, you learn how to apply basic statistics for the uncertainty
analysis using Petrel.
1. Open the settings of an existing continuous property to review its
mean and make histogram plot of the distribution.
2. Plot the CCD and asses the probability that porosity (x) from given
probability distribution will have a value less than or equal to 0.2.
3. Using a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curve, find the
probabilistic estimate of reserves (P10, P50, and P90).