Conflict Analysis

Framework

Lecturer Fatima Binte Zahid

Department of International Relations
FSSS, BUP
Lesson Objective
• To understand the purpose of conflict analysis.
• To identify and explain the key components of a conflict.
Lesson Outline
• Introduction
• Focus and elements of conflict analysis
Introduction
Introduction
• Multidimensional frameworks of analysis are necessary to examine
conflicts comprising diverse types of parties and issues.
• Reflecting differing degrees of complexity, each conflict is most likely
to have a varied temporal process and outcomes.
• The profile of conflict situations emerges from investigating the
context and dynamics of adversarial relationships.
• Mapping methods provide a system for illustrating the scope of a
conflict by assessing- the goals of the parties, the type of their
relationship, and the issues in contention.
Importance of conflict mapping
• Conflict management becomes easier since you have a clear picture
of the origin of the conflict.
• It reveals the main obstacles working against a peaceful solution and
the internal and external factors behind prolonging the conflict.
• It helps opposing parties distinguish their existing positions from
their true interests and needs,
• Gives options for solutions
• Mapping gives us the essential information that is fundamental in
planning a constructive response.
Focus and Elements of
Conflict Analysis
1. Indicators
• Even though each conflict situation may be unique, indicators can be developed
to show the relationship dynamics in different contexts.
• Indicators are needed to reduce a complex reality to a few concrete dimensions
and to denote valuable pointers against which to monitor any changes.
• Each party most often has its own perceptions of adversaries’ goals, attitudes,
and behaviour that differ from those of the adversaries themselves.
• In the exchange of each other’s experiences and perceptions, separate cognitive
maps of the same situation represent different viewpoints.
• Thus, it is imperative to have a mix of perception-based indicators (embodying
the meaning of conflict as held by the parties themselves) and objective
indicators (corresponding to existing realities as defined by outsiders).
2. Parties
• Conflict parties can be individuals or groups with the ability to
influence conflict dynamics—either by escalating or reducing
tensions.
• It’s important to also consider those who may be affected by the
conflict but haven’t yet taken an active role.
• Power alignments among conflict parties can shift, especially as new
allies join and influence the conflict’s direction and outcomes.
• Each party has different capacities, values, and needs, which shape
how they pursue goals, raise issues, and express interests.
2. Parties
• Parties differ in their attitudes, legitimacy, goals, and resource
mobilization, especially ideologically driven groups that resist
compromise.
• In prolonged conflicts, allies or sympathizers can significantly increase
a party’s resources and influence the trajectory of the conflict.
• Intermediaries (e.g. mediators or arbitrators) play a key role in finding
mutual interests and helping parties reach settlements.
• Parties can emerge or evolve during conflict, and their goals,
motivations, and ability to manage relationships determine their
expectations and impact on outcomes.
3. Goals
• In conflict, goals are the desired future outcomes that motivate parties
to engage in struggle.
• Goals can be tangible (e.g., land, political power, economic resources) or
intangible (e.g., prestige, respect, honour).
• Achieving these goals often involves costs, especially when there is
resistance from the other side.
• The more important a goal is to a party, the more willing they are to
endure costs to achieve it.
• Goals are not fixed—their importance may change over time as the
conflict becomes more costly or less beneficial.
• Goal incompatibility arises when two or more parties compete for the
same objective, making compromise difficult.
4. Issues
• Issues are the specific points of disagreement that define what the
conflict is about and need to be resolved.
• They can be tied to interests, values, or historical grievances, and new
issues often arise from mistreatment during the conflict.
• The more issues involved (especially with different meanings for each
party), the more complex the conflict becomes.
4. Issues
 Issues can be grouped like a tree:
• Root issues: deep, long-standing causes
• Trunk issues: core problems
• Branch issues: symptoms or surface-level disputes
 Issues may fall into different categories:
• Factual (based on data or truth)
• Interest-based (resources, money, roles)
• Value-based (honor, identity, meaning)
• Emotional/Relational (mistrust, disrespect)
4. Issues
• Sometimes, small issues (e.g., police brutality) reflect larger identity or
justice concerns in society.
• The same issue can have different meanings at local and national levels
(e.g., cultural tradition vs. political power-sharing).
• Multiple interpretations of the same issue often exist, and conflict
resolution depends on finding a shared understanding.
• Intangible issues (like respect, justice, or security) are often tied up with
material concerns (like land or resources).
• Some issues are distributive (zero-sum – one side wins, the other loses),
while others are integrative (mutual gains possible); solutions depend on
how the issues are framed.
5. Interests
• Interests are the political, economic, social, or occupational goals that
individuals or groups aim to achieve.
• They represent the motivations behind a party’s actions in a conflict.
• Conflicting interests often arise in competitive situations, especially
where outcomes are seen as win–lose.
• Economic interests are usually easier to negotiate or compromise on
compared to conflicts based on values or identity.
6. Values
• Values are shared beliefs about what is important and how people
should behave; they guide social expectations and actions.
• People use values to interpret others' behavior and judge what is
acceptable or unacceptable in society.
• Value differences arise when groups or individuals have different
belief systems, ideologies, or ways of life.
• Values influence how resources are distributed, and help justify or
challenge the behavior of other groups.
• Our values are shaped by cultural and social identities (e.g., religion,
ethnicity, language, class).
6. Values
• In conflict, one group may try to suppress or convert the values of another,
especially marginalized communities.
• Cultural values can become a tool of resistance in situations of oppression
and inequality.
• Conflicts can emerge when minority values or practices are rejected or
banned, such as religious expression or language rights.
• Leadership often arises to defend community values and cultural
autonomy, turning value defense into political mobilization.
• Modern value conflicts (e.g., abortion, migration, globalization) are deeply
connected to religion, gender roles, and national politics, making them hard
to resolve.
7. Human Needs
• Human needs are universal and essential for survival, self-esteem, identity,
and autonomy.
• Needs such as security, recognition, and development are non-negotiable
and cannot be suppressed by force or authoritarian control.
• Intractable conflicts often arise where these basic needs are denied, as seen
in places like Northern Ireland, Palestine, Chechnya, Nepal, Tibet, and
Muslim regions of China.
• When people are denied identity or dignity, it creates the foundation for
long-term conflict.
• Temporary agreements that ignore underlying needs may offer short-term
peace but fail to resolve the conflict in the long run.
7. Human Needs
• Scholars like John Burton and Herbert Kelman emphasize that
meeting human needs is essential for true conflict resolution.
• Identity groups often form in response to the need for dignity,
security, and recognition.
• Oppression and inequality pose existential threats and fuel deep
grievances.
• Lasting peace requires addressing social, economic, and political
conditions that prevent people from meeting their basic needs.
• From a human needs' perspective, conflict resolution must go beyond
compromise and aim for justice and fulfillment of fundamental rights.
8. Strategies, Tactics and Culture
• Strategy serves as an overall plan for responding to a given situation.
• Tactic = a specific observable action that moves a conflict in a particular
direction in line with the strategy.
• The adoption of particular strategies is influenced by different styles and
attitudes toward conflict.
• Suppression= threats, harassment, physical violence etc.
• Non-violent resistance= sabotage, hunger strike, blockade etc.
• Confrontational Strategy can be mild or intense.
• For example- formal complaints, protests, economic boycott, threats,
retaliation by military action, cutting of diplomatic relations etc.
8. Strategies, Tactics and Culture
• Preferred conflict behaviour can vary among cultural perspectives
and value systems that affect human action and communication.
• Hight context culture vs Low context culture
•A high-context culture is a culture or society that communicates
dominantly through the use of contextual elements, such as specific
forms of body language, the status of an individual, and the tone of
voice employed during speech. Rules are not directly or explicitly
written or stated.
8. Strategies, Tactics and Culture
•By contrast, a low-context culture enjoys communications that take
place most often through written or spoken (verbal) speech and rules
are directly and explicitly stated.
•High-context cultures include close-knit groups of people, while low-
context cultures are generally more diverse.
9. Conflict-coping styles and
orientations
• Behavioural orientations to conflict can be defined as a preferred
mode of managing adversarial situations.
• The adoption of a particular style and its changes over the course of
conflict have different behavioural implications for adversaries.
• One party’s style choice may induce the other’s behaviour to become
either more aggressive or more compromising.
• Communication patterns has an influence on coping style.
• Cultural interpretation and Gender orientation
 Avoidance Contending Yielding Accommodating
Inaction/Ignorance Focuses on scoring One party offers All parties search for
of uncomfortable victory and unilateral shared interests
issues. defeating the other. concessions
Conflict-coping

Less direct Unilateral pursuit of Fastest way to settle Integrative

interaction with one’s own interest differences bargaining strategies
enemy and attempts to are used.
force it on another

Decreased Used by the stronger Done with the Preferred to avoid

commitment to side. expectation of violent
conflict reciprocity confrontations
styles

High Costs, Low Parties have fewer An invitation to No absolute win or

chance of winning shared interests collaborate loss
‘Buy Time’, Cooling Tactics- pressure and Lowering one’s own Search for
Down intimidation aspirations alternatives
9. Conflict-coping styles
• Decisions on choice of strategy depend on:
o Actors’ motivation and situation
o Power relations
o Salience of Issues
o Will and commitment to the conflict
o Probability of achieving goal
o Price of the conflict
o Alternatives available
o Mutual Dependence
10. Condition for Conflict
• In order to understand a conflict, it is necessary to identify the
existing conditions that increases the hostile interactions.
• For example-
o Discontent from social injustice and growing inequity
o Triggers- violation of a ceasefire, street demonstrations, assassination
of a key leader, violent revolts, economic crisis, military defeat
o Differences in values, norms, status, class division
o Denial of legitimacy to certain groups
• The necessary conditions for a conflict are often structural.
11. Phases of a Conflict
• Stages of a conflict:

De-
Initiation Escalation Cessation
escalation

• It is necessary to identify the patterns of interaction between

adversaries at different stages of the conflict.
• Conflict goes through transformation
12. Conflict Context
•The context of a conflict can be illustrated in light of historical events
or incidents within which it is embedded.
•One conflict is connected to another by means of geographic
boundary, political structure, or diplomatic relations.
•The history of a conflict, and its physical and organizational settings,
constitute the context of an ongoing conflict.
•Conflict does not emerge in a vacuum.
13. Conflict Intervention
• The control of violent escalation is a main focus of conflict
intervention.
• Constant monitoring of potential flash points.
• Immediate actions to remove the conditions that facilitate the
outbreak of violence.
• Block a crisis from spilling into an openly violent conflict.
• There are many models and techniques of intervention.
14. The Principles of Conflict
Resolution
•History, perceptions, and identity can be utilized in managing conflict
and contributing to a sustainable peace.
•Some of the most powerful tools for peace building entail
acknowledging past harm, developing empathy toward the other’s
suffering, and remedying the necessity to remove the fear of victims.
•Conflict management is designed to control violent and costly struggle
in order to minimize the negative impacts of unrestrained forces.
14. The Principles of Conflict
Resolution
•The promotion of harmonious relationships in the wider social
environment is often viewed as the goal of conflict resolution.
•Yet, the outcomes of agreements would not be sustainable if
settlement process were not to address injustice and other types of
structural violence that oppress human conditions.
•The ignorance of long-term, underlying issues needs to be tackled by
overcoming power asymmetry with the empowerment of marginalized
parties.
14. The Principles of Conflict
Resolution
•Conflict analysis should reach, beyond the treatment of symptoms to
highlight their root causes.
•Introducing a new social and political formula that meets the essential
security needs of all sides can change the status quo.
•Lasting peace is most likely to be achieved by eliminating those
conditions that have led to violence in the first place.
Suggested Reading
• Jeong, H.W., (2008), Conflict Analysis Framework, Understanding
Conflict and Conflict Analysis, Sage Publications ltd.