Cricket and Time: A
Mathematical Analysis of
Player Performance
Rumman 9-A
Introduction
• This project explores how time
and probability can be used to
evaluate and predict individual
player performance in cricket
matches. Using l math, we
analyze real data from a
batsman to calculate
probabilities based on past
performances.
Player Profile:
Virat Kohli
• • Matches Considered: 10
recent T20 matches
• • Average Strike Rate: 135.4
• • Total Balls Faced: 248
• • Total Runs: 336
• • Total Boundaries: 30
fours, 8 sixes
Time Analysis
• Overs = Time in Cricket (1 over = 6 balls)
• Let’s break down Kohli’s average scoring pattern per over:
• • Average balls per innings: 24.8 (4 overs and 5 balls)
• • Average runs per over = 336 / (248 / 6) = 8.13 runs
• • So, in 5 overs, expected runs = 5 × 8.13 = 40.65
Probability: Scoring
a Boundary
• • Total boundaries = 30 (fours) +
8 (sixes) = 38
• • Total balls = 248
• • Probability (Boundary per ball)
= 38 / 248 = 0.153
• • So, in a 6-ball over, Expected
Boundaries = 6 × 0.153 = 0.92
• Kohli hits ~1 boundary per over.
• • Total sixes = 8
Probability: •
•
• Total balls = 248
• Probability (Six per ball) = 8 / 248 = 0.032
Hitting a Six • • In 20 balls, Expected Sixes = 20 × 0.032 = 0.64
• → About 1 six every 3 innings.
Match Scenario Calculation
• Match Scenario:
• • 12 balls left, Kohli on strike, team needs 20 runs.
• • From past data: Avg runs/ball = 336 / 248 = 1.35
• • Expected runs = 12 × 1.35 = 16.2
• → Probability of success:
• P(success) = P(score ≥ 20)
• Estimate from past 10 games: scored 20+ in 4 of last
10 such situations
• → P(success) = 4/10 = 0.4 or 40%
Conclusion
• Using basic probability and time
calculations, we can estimate
player impact in specific match
situations.
• Virat Kohli’s performance shows:
• • Consistent strike rate ~135
• • ~1 boundary per over
• • 40% chance to chase 20 in 12
balls
• Mathematics helps coaches,
analysts, and even fans make
informed predictions.