The Science of

Climate Change
What is Long term
climate variations
in
change? weather
patterns.
 Causes of
Climate
Change
•NATURAL CAUSES

•MAN MADE CAUSES

NATURAL Can you
CAUSES think of
some
OF natural
CLIMATE causes?

CHANGE
NATURAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE

•volcanic eruptions
•ocean current
•the earth’s orbital
changes
•solar variations
Volcanic
Eruptions
The explosion of gases
and molten lava within
the earth.

How does this

happen?
Earth has four main layers.

• innermost layer is a
solid core made from
iron.
• outer core is a
molten mixture of
iron and nickel.
• Mantle - a mushy
layer of molten rock -
feeds the volcanoes
• upper mantle and
crust - lithosphere
 The moving Earth
These tectonic plates travel
in all directions a few
inches per year.
(due to convection currents
under the Earth's crust)

•As the plates move, they

spread apart, collide, or slide
past each other.
•Volcanoes most often form
where tectonic plates meet.
There are two major plate motions that can happen at the plate
boundaries:
At divergent plate boundaries:
Plates move away from each other.
At convergent plate boundaries:
One tectonic plate slides beneath
another.

This will cause the rock to melt. This

molten rock begins to melt the rock
above it. This molten rock is called
Since
[Link] magma is less dense than the
hard rock around it, magma rises.

The explosivity of an eruption depends on the composition of the magma. If

magma is thin and runny, gases can escape easily from it. When this type
of magma erupts, it flows out of the volcano.
Magma, once it erupts, it’s called lava.
How does this
affect climate
change?
The volcanic eruptions emit
large volumes of toxic
gases

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
• Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S)
• Hydrogen Flouride (HF)
• Hydrogen Chloride (HCl) Can you find
• Hydrogen Bromide (HBr) out the
• Carbon Monoxide (CO)
• Ammonia (NH3)
impacts of
• Methane (CH4) these toxic
• Silicon Tetrafluroide (SiF4) gases on the
atmosphere?
 12
2/1/20XX

HE PHYSICS OF
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Ocean
Current
Subtitle
Sample Footer Text
 Ocean currents are produced by gravity, wind friction, and water
density variation (due to salt concentration in different parts of the ocean)
The speed and direction of the ocean currents depend on
• Coastal and seafloor features
• Coriolis effect due to earth’s rotation

This
deflection is
called the
Coriolis
effect.
If the Earth did not rotate and because the Earth rotates, circulating
[Link]
remained stationary, the air is deflected. Instead of circulating education/tutorial_currents/
[Link]#:~:text=Becau
atmosphere would circulate in a straight pattern, the air deflects se%20the%20Earth%20rotates
%20on,are%20affected%20by
between the poles (high pressure toward the right in the Northern %20local%20winds.

areas) and the equator (a low Hemisphere and toward the left in the
Ocean currents transfer significant amounts of heat across
the planet.
The annual mean net
heat flux from the
ocean surface to the
atmosphere at five
major western
boundary currents
Alfred Wegener Institute/Hu Yang

the western boundary current

(with the exception of the Gulf
Stream) are becoming stronger
due to climate change.

The oceans also play an important role in determining the

atmospheric concentration of CO2.
Changes in ocean circulation may affect the climate through the
movement of CO into or out of the atmosphere.
Dynamics of Ocean Curren
 Dynamics of Ocean
Currents
The general circulation of the ocean current is governed by one of the
fundamental laws of mechanics - Newtons second law

F = ma
F – the net force acting on the body
m – mass
a – acceleration of the body

Rearranging we can write;

The net force per unit mass = acceleration of the body

In 3D we can write this equation , ,

 Dynamics of Ocean
Currents
but, when dealing with a fluid, we need to consider
not only the equations of motion, but also the equation of continuity and
the boundary conditions.

So we can write the hydrodynamic equations of motion developed by

Euler.

these equations are used

to study many types of
fluid motion.

external force acting on a unit mass,

total pressure gradient per unit mass.

The earth’s

Earth’s orbital
changes

Orbital
Change
s
 There are three main orbital
variations:
Eccentricity - changes in the shape of the Earth’s
orbit

Obliquity - changes in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational

axis

Precession – wobbles in the Erath’s rotational axis

These are collectively called ‘Milankovitch cycles’

These changes combine to affect the amount of energy our planet receives
from the sun.
This will lead to cooling or warming of the Earth’s climate
Eccentricity

The Earth’s orbit around the

Sun is an ellipse but it isn’t
always the same shape of
ellipse

When the Earth is

closer to the Sun, it
is warmer
 Obliquit
y
The earth is tilted
at an
angle ranging from
22° to 24.5° to the
perpendicular
plane of its
orbital path.
When the angle
increases the summers
become warmer and the
winters become colder.
 Precessio
n
The Earth wobbles on
its axis, much like a
spinning top. North
pole keeps changing
its direction.
Precession is due to
the gravitational pull
of the Moon and the
Sun upon the Earth

This has affected the timing

of the seasons.
 Milankovitch’s
theory
According to Milankovitch’s theory
These orbital changes combine to affect the
amount of energy our planet receives from
the sun.

This will lead to cooling or warming of the

Milutin Milankovitch,
Earth’s climate
Serbian mathematician
Combined effect of all three cycles on solar
radiation reaching the Earth

Data: Milankovitch Orbital Data Viewer, Colorado State University. Figure by Ingrid Zabel for
PRI's Earth@Home project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license).

The effect of this changing solar input over time has

been significant: it has pushed the Earth’s climate in
and out of cold and warm phases.
 Solar
Variatio
ns
Life on Earth depends on energy received from the sun.
The energy output of the sun varies
over
So time.
it is reasonable to assume that this
would contribute to climate change.
The graph shows;
The solar fluctuations since 1870
have contributed a maximum of
0.1 °C to temperature changes.
- A very small role in Earth's climate

- So current global warming cannot be

explained by solar variations.

The reason for the current rise in

temperatures is due to the Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of
greenhouse gasses capturing heat temperature (thick dark red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar
Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark blue).
in the lower atmosphere. TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Krivova et al 2007. TSI from 1979 to 2015 from the
World Radiation Center
MAN MADE
CAUSES OF
CLIMATE
CHANGE
 Do
human What
activitie do you
s think?
contribu
te to
• Burning Fossil
Fuels

• Deforestation
and Farming.
The climate is changing due to man-made
greenhouse gases.
What are greenhouse
gases?

Figure from: [Link]

 Why is it called greenhouse They act like glass walls of a
gases? greenhouse.
Greenhouse gases allow sunlight to pass
through the atmosphere and stop the heat
from reflecting back into the atmosphere.
Infrared radiation – longer
wavelengths in the electromagnetic
spectrum
Some of the infrared radiation from the
Sun passes through the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases absorb infrared
radiation and reflect back into the
atmosphere.
This is called the greenhouse effect

Without this greenhouse effect, the The increased emissions of greenhouse

earth would be too cold to live in gases lock up the heat in the gas molecules.

This has caused global warming and

Worldwide Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas -
1990–2018
The figure
shows
Net emissions of
carbon dioxide
increased by 51%.
(carbon dioxide
accounts for about
three-fourths of total
global emissions)
Methane emissions
increased the least—
17 %

Emissions of nitrous
oxide increased by 24
%

[Link] Emissions of
Worldwide Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector - 1990–
2018

The figure
shows
43%
increase in
greenhous
e gas
emissions
due to
human
activities

[Link]
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region - 1990–2018

The majority of
CO2 emissions
come from East
Asia and Pacific,
Europe and
Central Asia, and
the United States

These regions
contributed 74 %
of total global
emissions in
2018.

[Link]
emissions
2/1/20XX

Mathematical Proof of
the Greenhouse Effect
 Energy Balance
Models
S – Solar Irradiance (solar constant) -The amount of light energy
hitting per unit area per second
A– Albedo-The fraction of solar radiation reflected by the Earth (due t
clouds, aerosols and snow)
F – Flux of Longwave Energy emitted by
the planet

Earth is approximated as a disc of surface area

A = πR2
where R – Radius of Earth
 Energy Balance
Models
S – Solar Irradiance (solar constant) -The amount of light energy
hitting per unit area per second
A– Albedo-The fraction of solar radiation reflected by the Earth (due t
clouds, aerosols and snow)
F – Flux of Longwave Energy emitted by
the planet

Energy balance = Energy in =

Energy out
π R2 S (1-A) = 4π R2
F
Earth is approximated as a disc of surface area
A = πR2
where R – Radius of Earth
 Energy Balance
Models
Assuming Earth is a perfect black body
radiation falling onto it.)
(A body that absorbs all the EM

Where T – absolute temperature and σ - Stefan’s

Using Stefan’s Law: constants

π R 2
S (1-A) = 4π
Substituting in the energy balance equation
R2 F

Rearranging to find
TE - the absolute
temperature on earth
 By substituting the values we can calculate the surface
temperature on earth
S – Solar Irradiance (solar constant) -The amount S = 1361 W
of light energy hitting per unit area per second m-2

A – Albedo-The fraction of solar radiation A = 0.3

reflected by the Earth
σ – The Stefan constant σ = 5.67 x 10 -8
W m-2 K-2

T (calculated) = 255 K OR -18 oC

T (actual) = 288 K OR +15 oC

Is Physics
wrong?
 Why is the
observed
temperature higher
than the calculated
temperature?

Greenhouse
Effect
In this calculation, we assumed that Earth is a perfect black body.
i.e it absorbs all the EM radiation falling onto it.

But earth is not a perfect blackbody. Part of the energy is absorbed

by the atmosphere.

So we introduce a factor called emissivity (ε) – fraction of energy

radiated

Now we can re-write the Stefan’s equation

The energy emitted

substituting
σ = 5.67 x 10 -8
W m-2 K-2 The surface temperature of earth

ε = 0.61 (average emissivity of earth)

T (calculated) ~ 288 K OR +15
o
C
T (actual) = 288 K OR +15 oC
This model can be used to study the effects of solar irradiance, albedo and emissivity on
 significant
damage to
both human
and natural
systems

Its
time to
Act
NOW