Probability
Year 9
The probability scale
Complementary event
If there is an event A, the complementary
event of A is event A not happening
P(winning) + P(not winning) = 1
That means
P(not winning) = 1 – P(winning)
Examples of complementary events
Complement of an Event: All outcomes
that are NOT the event.
When the event is Heads,
the complement is Tails
Other examples of
complementary events
When the event is Jokers
the complement is {Spades,
Clubs, Diamonds, Hearts}
Other examples of
complementary events
When the event is {Monday, Wednesday}
the complement is {Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
Sunday}
What is mutually
exclusive?
When two events are Mutually Exclusive it is
impossible for them to happen together
Example
If a bag contained 3 black, 2 yellow and 5 white
balls and only 1 ball is allowed to be taken at
random from the bag.
What is the probability of:
P(black ball)
P(yellow ball)
P(white ball)
Also the probability of choosing a black
or a yellow is =
The events ‘picking a Y ball’ and ‘picking a B ball’ can never happen
at the same time when one ball is taken out: that is, a ball can be
either B or Y.
Such events are called mutually
exclusive.
Other examples of mutually
exclusive events
Flipping a head or a tail with a coin
Throwing an even or an odd
number on a dice.
Other examples of
mutually exclusive events
Example
An ordinary dice is thrown
a) What is the probability of throwing :
i) an even number? ii) an odd number?
P(even) = P(odd) =
b) What is the total of the answer to part a?
This event is mutually exclusive because they can never
happen at the same time.
A spinner has four sections coloured green, red,
yellow and white. The probabilities of the spinner stops
on each of the sections are:
Colour Green Red Yellow White
Probability 0.2 0.1 0.25
What is the probability that the spinner stops on white? 0,45
Why? Because mututally exclusive outcomes must
total 1
What is the probability that the spinner stops on green or red?
0,3. Because the probability of multiple mutually exclusive events
can be found by summation
What is the probability that the spinner does not stop on white?
P(not white)= 1- P(white)
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Events are ‘independent’ if the outcome of one event does not
affect the outcome of the other event.
Dependent (the
Independent
outcome of one
(the outcome of
event does
Events one event does not
affect the
affect the outcome
outcome of the
of the other event)
other event)
I throw a die and flip a
coin.
I get stopped at traffic
lights and I am late to
school.
I choose a marble
from a box, do not
replace it and then
choose a second
marble from the box.
I flip a coin and then
flip the coin again.
…
COMBINED EVENTS
If two events are independent, you can find the probability
that both events will happen by multiplying the separate
probabilities. Suppose you flip a coin and roll a fair dice.
• The probability of a head on the coin, P(head) =
• The probability of more than 2 on the dice, P(more than 2) = =
• The probability of both, P(head and more than 2) = x = =
When you have two independent events, you can use a tree
diagram to show the outcomes and to calculate the
probabilities.
What are Tree Diagrams
• A way of showing the possibilities of two or
more events
• Simple diagram we use to calculate the
probabilities of two or more events
For example – a fair coin is spun twice
1st 2nd
H HH
T HT Possible
Outcomes
H TH
T
T TT
CHANCE EXPERIMENTS
If you roll a die 12 times how many of each number would
you expect to roll?
× 12 = 2
This is the theoretical probability.
If we try This expriment. Do you think that you will roll the
expected number of each?
A chance experiment is an action or process that leads to
one or more possible outcomes, where the result cannot
be predicted with certainty.
Key Features of a Chance Experiment:
•The outcome is uncertain before the experiment is
performed.
•There may be multiple possible outcomes.
•It is often repeated under similar conditions.
Examples:
•Tossing a coin (possible outcomes: heads or tails)
•Rolling a die (possible outcomes: 1 to 6)
•Spinning a spinner
Example:
Zara rolls a dice 50 times. The top row shows the first
She is looking for sixes. ten rolls. The frequency of a
Here are the results: 6 in the top row is 2.
The relative frequency of a 6
after the first ten rolls is =
0.2. After 20 rolls, the
frequency of a 6 is 5 and the
relative frequency is = 0.25.
The theoretical probability of getting a 6 when you roll a dice is =
0.167 to 3 d.p. The relative frequency will keep changing as Zara
rolls the dice more times.
RELATIVE FREQUENCY
If an action is repeated, the relative frequency of a
particular outcome is the fraction of times when that
outcome occurs.
Quick recap
Which is the most likely totals to be rolled?