Probability
Probability
In mathematics, the change of an event occuring is assigned a number
between 0 and 1. We call this number a probability.
An impossible event has 0% chance of happening, and is assigned the
probability 0
A certain event has 100% of happening, and is assigned the probability
1.
Experimental Probability
In Experiments involving chance, we use the following terms to talk
about what we are doing and the results we obtain.
The number of trials is the total number of times the experiment is
repeated.
The outcomes are the different results possible for one trial of the
experiement
The frequency of a particular outcome is the number of times that this
outcome is observed.
The relative frequency of an outcome is the frequency of that outcome
expressed as a fraction or percentage of the total number of trials.
Example
When a small plastic cone was tossed into the air 279 times, it fell on its
side 183 times and on its base 96 times.
The number of trials is
The outcomes are
The frequencies are
The relative frequencies
Two-Way Tables
Two way tables are tables which compare two categorical variables.
Example: the teachers at a school were asked which mode of transport they used to
travel to school.
Car Bicycle Bus
Male 37 10 10
Female 30 5 13
P(Bicycle) Hint: you need to
create a total
column and row
P(if they are male, they took a car)
People exiting a new ride at a theme park were asked whether
they liked or disliked the ride. The results are shown in a two-way
table.
Child Adult
Liked the ride 55 28
Disliked the ride 17 30
Find the probability that a randomly chose person who went on the ride:
a. Liked the ride
b. Is a child and disliked the ride
c. Is an adult or disliked the ride
Sample Space and Events
The Sample Space is the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment.
An event is a set of outcomes in the sample space that have a particular
property
Sample Space = Universal Set
Outcomes = Elements
Events – subsets of the sample space
A six sided die is rolled once. Let A be
the event that a prime number is rolled.
a. Use set notation to list the outcomes of
b. Draw a Venn Diagram
Illustrate the possible outcomes when
two coins are tossed using:
a. 2-dimensional Grid b. A tree
diagram
Illustrate the possible outcomes when
tossing a coin and rolling a six sided die:
a. 2-dimensional Grid b. A
tree diagram
Consider rolling a die and tossing
a coin. Determine the sample
space for the combined events.
Let D be the sample space for rolling a die: D={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
Let C be the sample space for tossing a coin: C={H,T}.
S={(1,H),(1,T),(2,H),(2,T),(3,H),(3,T),(4,H),(4,T),(5,H),(5,T),(6,H),(6,T)}
You roll a fair six-sided die and toss a fair coin.
Find the probability of getting a prime number
on the die and getting Tails in the coin toss.
Hint use the multiplication Theorem
You roll a fair six-sided die and toss a fair coin.
Find the probability of getting a prime number
on the die and getting Tails in the coin toss.
Let A be the event of getting a prime number on the die, and B be the event of getting Tails in the
coin toss.
A={2,3,5}
B={Tails}
P(A and B) : P(A)xP(B)
P(A) = (Number of outcomes in A/Total number of outcomes on the die) = 3/6 = 1/2
P(B) = 1/2 (it is a fair coin)
P(A and B) = (1/2)x(1/2) = 1/4
Therefore: P(A and B) = 1/4
You roll a fair six-sided die and toss a fair
coin. What is the probability of getting
Heads or getting an even number?
Let C be the event of rolling an even number, and D be the event of getting Heads.
C = {2,4,6}
D = {Heads}
The probability of either event occurring is given by:
P(C or D) = P(C)+P(D) - P(C and D)
P(C) = 3/6 = 1/2
P(D) = 1/2
P(C and D) = 1/6(the outcome (2,heads))
P(C or D) = 1/2+1/2-1/6 = 5/6
Therefore, the probability of rolling an even number or getting Heads is P(C or D)
= 5/6
Answers
Use a tree diagram to illustrate the
outcomes when this spinner is spun 3 times
Theoretical Probabilty
You have a six sided dice
We expect that each side has an equal chance of happening. Each outcome is
equally likely
The theoretical probability of any outcome occuring is 1 in 6, or
A ticket is randomly selected from a basket
containing 3 green, 4 yellow, and 5 blue tickets.
Determine the probability of
a. A green ticket
b. Green or yellow ticket
c. Orange
d. Green, yellow, or blue
In a class of 30 students, 19 study physics,
17 study chemistry, and 15 study both.
a. Show on a Venn Diagram
b. Determine the probability of a randomly chosen student who studies
i. Both subjects
ii. At least one subject
iii. Physics but not chemistry
iv. Exactly one subject
v. Neither subject
The Addition Law
For two events A and B
If A and B are disjoint or mutually exclusive events, , so the addition law
becomes
If
. Find P(B)
A class of 30 students was given a History test. 7
Students scored an A and 11 students scored a B
A student is randomly selected
a. Are A and B mutually exclusive?
b. Find
i. P(A)
ii. P(B)
Independent Events
Independent events are when two events do not effect the outcome of
each other
If A and B are independent events, then
If A, B, and C are independent events, then
Flipping a coin and rolling a dice
a. What is the probability of getting a Heads and a 5
b. What is the probability of getting a Heads and an Odd Number
Carl is not having much luck lately. His care will only start 80% of
the time, and his motorbike will only start 60% of the time,
independently of each other.
a. Draw a tree diagram b.
Event A is rolling a dice. Event B is picking a
marble from a bag with 4 red, 3 blue and 8 green
marbles.
Find
P(4 and a blue)
P(even number and not green)
P(4 and not green)
Mr. Manderville’s class has 8 girls and 7 boys.
Ms Karin’s class has 7 girls and 6 boys. A name
is drawn from each class to get a prize. What’s
the probability that
a. Both names are boys
b. At least one name is a girl
Multiplication Rule
Dependent Events
Two or more events are dependent if the occurance of one of the events
affects the occurance of the other events.
If events are independent replacement
If events are dependent without replacement
If a bag has 3 blue marbles and 4 red marbles and
we choose 2 marbles. Draw tree diagrams for
Independent
Dependent
In a math class, there are 4 boys and 6 girls. They
will draw two names to get a homework pass. The
events are dependent of each other.
Find the probability that the two names are drawn
a. Are 2 boys
b. Boy and a girl
c. 2 girls
Conditional Probability
It is read as: What is the probability of A given B
Example
What’s the probabilty of A given B
U
A B
(8) (7)
(14)
(1
)
Urn A contains 2 red marbles and 3 blue marbles,
and Urn B contains 4 red marbles and 1 blue
marble.
Peter selects an urn by tossing a coin, and takes a marble from that urn.
Draw the tree diagram
Find