Chapter 7: Quantitative Process Analysis

Contents
1. Flow Analysis
2. Simulation
3. Recap

SEITE 1
Process Analysis in the BPM Lifecycle

Process
Management Processes

Define Vision Develop Strategy Implement Manage Risk

Strategy

identification Core Processes

Procure Procure Market Deliver

Manage
Customer
Materials Products Products Products
Service

Support Processes

Process architecture Manage Personnel

Manage
Information Manage Assets

Conformance and Process As-is process

performance discovery model
insights

Process Process
monitoring analysis

Executable Insights on
process weaknesses and
model their impact

Process Process
implementation To-be process redesign
model
Chapter 7: Quantitative Process Analysis

Contents
1. Flow Analysis
2. Simulation
3. Recap

SEITE 3
Flow analysis

Process
model

Process
performance

Performance
of each
activity

4
Refresher: Process performance measures

Time

Process
performance

Quality Cost
Common time-related measures
Time taken by
value-adding
Processing activities
time Time between start

Cycl and completion of a

process instance

e
Waiting
time
time
Time taken by
non-value-adding
activities
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Cycle time efficiency

Cycle
Processing Cycle
Time
Time Time
Efficiency

7
Flow analysis of cycle time

1 day 1 day

1 day 3 days

3 days 2 days

Cycle time = ??? days

8
Sequence – Example

• What is the average cycle time?

Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30

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Example: Alternative Paths

• What is the average cycle time?

50
90
%

50
10
%

Cycletime
Cycle time==10
10++0.9*20+0.1*10
(20+10)/2 = 25
=
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Example: Parallel paths

• What is the average cycle time?

Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Example: Rework loop

• What is the average cycle time?

80%
100%
1%

0%
99%
20%

Cycle time = 10 + 20/1.00 = 30 days

Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.01 = 2010 days
Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.80 = 35 days
Flow analysis equations for cycle time

CT = T1+T2+…+ TN

CT = p1*T1+p2*T2+…+ pn*TN

CT = max(T1, T2,…, TN)

CT = T / (1-r)
Flow analysis of cycle time

1 day 1 day
20% 60
%

80%
1 day 3 days 40
%
3 days 2 days

1/0.8 max(1,3) 3 0.6*1+0.4*2

Cycle time = 1.25 + 3 + 3 + 1.4 =

8.65 days
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Flow analysis of cycle time

1 day 1 day
20% 60%

80%
1 day 3 days 40%

3 days 2 days

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Flow analysis of processing time

0.5 hour 2 hours

20% 60
%

80%
2 hours 2 hours 40
%
3 hours 0.5 hour

2/0.8 max(0.5,3) 2 0.6*2+0.4*0.5

Processing time = 2.5 + 3 + 2 + 1.4 = 8.9 hours

Cycle time efficiency = 8.9 hours / 8.65 days = 12.9%
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Flow analysis of processing time

0.5 hour 2 hours

20% 60
%

80%
2 hours 2 hours 40
%
3 hours 0.5 hour

2/0.8 max(0.5,3) 2 0.6*2+0.4*0.5

Processing time = 2.5 + 3 + 2 + 1.4 = 8.9 hours

Cycle time efficiency = 8.9 hours / 8.65 days = 12.9%
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Flow analysis: scope and limitations

 We have seen how to use flow analysis for processing & cycle time calculation
 Flow analysis can also be applied to calculate:
 The average cost of process instances (assuming we know the cost of each activity)
 Cf. Section 7.1.6
 The number of times on average each activity is executed
 Can be used to calculate the “unit load” of each task, the resource utilization of each
resource pool, and the theoretical capacity of an “as is” process
 Cf. Section 7.1.5

 But flow analysis has some fundamental limitations…

Limitation 1: Not all Models are Structured
Limitation 2: Fixed arrival rate capacity

 Cycle time analysis does not consider:

 The rate at which new process instances are created (arrival rate)
 The number of available resources
 Higher arrival rate at fixed resource capacity
 high resource contention
 higher activity waiting times (longer queues)
 higher activity cycle time
 higher overall cycle time
 The slower you are, the more people have to queue up…
 and vice-versa
Resource utilization

Time
Time spent available
per resource per Resource
on process resource for utilization
work process
work

Resource utilization = 60%

 on average resources are idle 40% of their
allocated time

21
Resource utilization vs. waiting time

Resource
utilizatio Waiting
n time

Typically, when resource utilization > 90%

 Waiting time increases steeply

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Interlude:
Cycle Time & Work-In-Progress
 WIP = (average) Work-In-Process
 Number of cases that are running (started but not yet completed)
 E.g. # of active and unfilled orders in an order-to-cash process
 WIP is a form of waste (cf. 7+1 sources of waste)
 Little’s Formula: WIP = ·CT
  = arrival rate (number of new cases per time unit)
 CT = cycle time
Exercise 7.1

A fast-food restaurant receives on average 1200 customers per day

(between 10:00 and 22:00). During peak times (12:00-15:00 and
18:00-21:00), the restaurant receives around 900 customers in total,
and 90 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a
given point in time. At non-peak times, the restaurant receives 300
customers in total, and 30 customers can be found in the restaurant
(on average) at a given point in time.
a) What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant
during peak times?
b) What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant
during non-peak times?
c) The restaurant plans to launch a marketing campaign to attract
more customers. However, the restaurant’s capacity is limited and
becomes too full during peak times. What can the restaurant do to
address this issue without investing in extending its building?
 Solution to Exercise 7.1 (a)

 900 customers per day during peak times

 6 hours peak time (12.00pm-3.00pm) + (6.00pm-9.00pm)
 900 customers / 6 hours peak time = 150 customers/hour
 Then , the arrival rate () = 150 customers/hour
 Given, (WIP) = 90 customers during peak times
 Then, the cycle time (CT) = 90/150 = 0.6 hour
 (i.e., the average time to serve a customer
during peak times = CT = 0.6*60 = 36 minutes)
 Solution to Exercise 7.1 (b)

 300 customers per day during non-peak times

 6 hours other than (12.00pm-3.00pm) + (6.00pm-9.00pm)
 300 customers / 6 hours peak time = 50 customers/hour
 Then , the arrival rate () = 50 customers/hour
 Given, (WIP) = 30 customers during peak times
 Then, the cycle time (CT) = 30/50 = 0.6 hour
 (i.e., the average time to serve a customer
during non-peak times = CT = 0.6*60 = 36 minutes)
 Solution to Exercise 7.1 (c)

 Improving menu order taking process by introducing

self-service ordering method that reduces the time to order as
compared to waiting for the waiter/waitress to take the order or
pre-order menu booking over phone or email.

 Improving the payment method process also helps the restaurant

to achieve maximum numbers of customers by introducing a tap-
to-pay payment method or acceptance of mobile payment method

 Improving the cooking methods or technique by the chef so the

time prepared to cook the dishes/menus can be shortened and
improved.
Chapter 7: Quantitative Process Analysis

Contents
1. Value-Added Analysis
2. Simulation
3. Recap

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 Process Simulation

Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario

Repeat for Analyze the

alternative simulation
scenarios outputs

29
Example

30
Example

31
 Elements of a simulation scenario
1. Processing times of activities
 Fixed value
 Probability distribution

32
 Exponential Distribution

33
Normal Distribution

34
Choice of probability distribution

 Fixed
 Rare, can be used to approximate case where the activity
processing time varies very little
 Example: a task performed by a software application
 Normal
 Repetitive activities
 Example: “Check completeness of an application”
 Exponential
 Complex activities that may involve analysis or decisions
 Example: “Assess an application”

35
Simulation Example

Normal(10m, 2m)
Normal(10m, 2m)

0m

Exp(20m)

Normal(20m, 4m) Normal(10m, 2m)

36
 Elements of a simulation model
1. Processing times of activities
 Fixed value
 Probability distribution
2. Conditional branching probabilities
3. Arrival rate of process instances and probability distribution
 Typically exponential distribution with a given mean inter-arrival time
 Arrival calendar, e.g. Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm, or 24/7

37
Branching probability and arrival rate
Arrival rate = 2 applications per hour
Inter-arrival time = 0.5 hour
Exponential distribution
From Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm

0.3

0.7

0.3

35m 55m

9:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00

38
10:00
 Elements of a simulation model
1. Processing times of activities
 Fixed value
 Probability distribution
2. Conditional branching probabilities
3. Arrival rate of process instances
 Typically exponential distribution with a given mean inter-arrival time
 Arrival calendar, e.g. Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm, or 24/7
4. Resource pools

39
 Resource pools
 Name
 Size of the resource pool
 Cost per time unit of a resource in the pool
 Availability of the pool (working calendar)
 Examples
 Clerk Credit Officer
 € 25 per hour € 25 per hour
 Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm
 In some tools, it is possible to define cost and calendar per resource,
rather than for entire resource pool

40
 Elements of a simulation model
1. Processing times of activities
 Fixed value
 Probability distribution
2. Conditional branching probabilities
3. Arrival rate of process instances and probability distribution
 Typically exponential distribution with a given mean inter-arrival time
 Arrival calendar, e.g. Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm, or 24/7
4. Resource pools
5. Assignment of tasks to resource pools

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Resource pool assignment

Clerk Officer

Syste
m
Officer

Clerk Officer

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 Process Simulation

✔ ✔ ✔
Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario

Repeat for Analyze the

alternative simulation
scenarios outputs

43
 Output: Performance measures & histograms

44
 Process Simulation

✔ ✔ ✔
Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario

✔
Repeat for Analyze the
alternative simulation
scenarios outputs

45
Tools for Process Simulation

 ARIS
 Bizagi Process Modeler
 ITP Commerce Process Modeler for Visio
 Logizian
 Oracle BPA
 Progress Savvion Process Modeler
 ProSim
 Signavio + BIMP

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BIMP – [Link]

 Accepts standard BPMN 2.0 as input

 Simple form-based interface to enter simulation scenario
 Produces KPIs + simulation logs in MXML format
 Simulation logs can be imported to the ProM process mining tool

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BIMP Demo

[Link]

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