CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Students will be able to:
find the conditional probability of an event.
Key Vocabulary:
• Independent events
• Dependent events
• Conditional Probability
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Two events, and, are INDEPENDENT EVENTS if the fact that event
occurs does not affect the probability of occurring.
• Rolling a die and getting a 4, and then rolling a second die and
getting a 5.
• Drawing a card from a deck and getting a jack, replacing it, and
then drawing a second card and getting an ace.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed, the events are said to be DEPENDENT
EVENTS.
• Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a
second card.
• Having a high grades and getting a scholarship.
• Selecting a ball from a jar, not replacing it, and then selecting a
second ball.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY of an event is used when the
probability is affected by the knowledge of other circumstances. It
can only occur to dependent events.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY of an event is used when the
probability is affected by the knowledge of other circumstances. It
can only occur to dependent events.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of that the second event occurs given
that the first event has occurred can be found by dividing the
probability that both events occurred by the probability that the
first event has occurred. It is denoted by , and is given by
where .
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 1: Black and white chips are placed in a box. Jack
selects two chips without replacing the first one. If the probability of
selecting a black chip and white chip is 30/67, and the probability of
selecting a white chip on the first draw is 6/11, find the probability
of selecting a black chip on the second draw, given that the first chip
is white.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 1: Black and white chips are placed in a box. Jack
selects two chips without replacing the first one. If the probability of
selecting a black chip and white chip is 30/67, and the probability of
selecting a white chip on the first draw is 6/11, find the probability
of selecting a black chip on the second draw, given that the first chip
is white.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 2: 9 red balls and 3 green marbles are place in a
bag. Find the probability of randomly selecting a red marble on the
first draw and a green marble on the second draw.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 2: 9 red balls and 3 green marbles are place in a
bag. Find the probability of randomly selecting a red marble on the
first draw and a green marble on the second draw.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 3: The probability Nathan buys butter is 0.10, and
the probability that he buys bread and butter is 0.20. Find the
probability that he will buy butter, given that he already bought
bread.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem 3: The probability Nathan buys butter is 0.10, and
the probability that he buys bread and butter is 0.20. Find the
probability that he will buy butter, given that he already bought
bread.