Islamic Banking Market Risk Management
Islamic Banking Market Risk Management
Financial Markets
Module 7 (Continued)
Risk Management in Islamic Banking
Dr. Mustafa Disli
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Market risk
Rate of Return
General Market Risk
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Market risk
The Murabaha
potential Arises from price
Murabaha The Murabaha
risk arising TheMudaraba
risk arising
impact on the volatility in
from the change from entering into
returnsIjarah
caused by commodities
Salam Musharaka
in priceIjarah
of one partnership of
unexpected (e.g., oil, metals,
currency against participating in a
changeSalam
in the rate agricultural
Istisna Salam
another. business activity.
of returns products).
Istisna Istisna
Mudaraba
The risk that financial institutions face commercial pressure to
Displaced
provide returns to investmentMusharaka
account holders that exceed actual
commercial risk
earnings on assets. 3
Difference between Rate of Return Risk and
Displaced Commercial Risk?
• Rate of Return Risk
– Involves the uncertainty in returns Islamic banks earn on their financing assets due
to external factors like market fluctuations, economic conditions, and inflation.
– Arises when actual returns on financing activities differ from expected returns,
impacting profitability.
– Unlike displaced commercial risk, this focuses on direct external influences on
financing outcomes rather than customer-driven pressures.
• Displaced Commercial Risk
– Occurs when investment account holders’ (PSIA) return expectations exceed the
actual returns generated by the bank’s assets.
– This difference may lead to pressure on the bank to cover the gap, often by using
its own funds, to meet depositor expectations.
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Sources of funds
ISLAMIC BANKS CONVENTIONAL BANKS
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Sources of funds
ISLAMIC BANK CONVENTIONAL BANK
Current accounts Current accounts
Banks in both cases use shareholders’ equity to protect these deposits
Profit Equalization Reserve (PER): An amount set aside by the bank from gross income,
before distributing the mudarib (bank’s) share, to maintain a stable return for Investment
Account Holders (IAHs).
– Purpose: Aims to smooth out returns over time, ensuring consistent and competitive returns
for IAHs, even during periods of fluctuating profits.
– Use: Functions as a buffer to stabilize ROI (return on investment) by absorbing periods of
lower returns, thus maintaining investor confidence and satisfaction.
Investment Risk Reserve (IRR): A reserve created from the IAHs' net income, after the
bank’s share has been allocated, to provide a cushion against potential future losses that
may directly affect IAHs.
– Purpose: Primarily a risk management tool, IRR protects IAHs from financial losses by
mitigating investment risks associated with the bank’s assets.
– Use: Unlike PER, which stabilizes returns, IRR is meant to absorb potential investment losses,
enhancing the bank’s financial resilience on behalf of IAHs.
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Difference between PER & IRR: example
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Case study
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Case study 1. Liquid assets
– Cash & equivalents: Direct cash holdings.
– Commodity Murabaha (Tawarruq): Short-term
liquidity management tool.
• Process: Purchase commodity on credit →
Sell for cash.
• Example: Commonly conducted via the
London Metal Exchange (LME).
2. Financing assets
– Receivables through financing modes:
– Mudaraba, Murabaha, Ijara, Istisna’a, and
Salam.
– Excludes Musharaka (similar risk profile to
Mudaraba).
3. Investment & other assets
– Long-term investments categorized as:
• Available-for-Sale: Fair-value reserves.
• Held-to-Maturity: Bonds or fixed securities.
4. Fixed Assets
– Infrastructure: Computers, furniture, land,
premises.
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Case study
1. Current accounts
– Nature: Safekeeping deposits (Qard Hassan); No
returns; principal is guaranteed; Purpose: Meets
clients' transactional needs.
2. Profit-Sharing Investment Accounts (PSIA)
– Structure: Based on Mudaraba agreement (bank-
client partnership); Types: Saving Investment
Accounts: No fixed maturity; open access; Fixed
Investment Accounts (F-PSIA): Fixed terms (e.g.,
3, 6, 12 months); Open-Maturity F-PSIA: Terms >1
year; Implication: Differentiation in account types
impacts risk analysis.
3. Other liabilities
– Unpaid depositors’ share of profits: Includes
previous PER allocations.
– Deferred Profit: Classified by AAOIFI as neither
liability nor equity.
4. Total equity
– Components: Share capital, reserves, retained
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earnings.
Case study 1. Operating income
– Financing income: From sale-based and Profit
& Loss Sharing (PLS) financing.
– Investment income: Generated from
investment assets (e.g., properties, associates).
– Service income: Includes fees, commissions,
and foreign exchange income from services
(e.g., fund management, advisory).
– Other income: Gains/losses on asset
revaluation and other miscellaneous income.
2. Operating expenditures
– G&A expenses: General & administrative
expenses (rent, utilities, professional fees,
insurance)
– Provisions for Impairment: Key item related to
credit risk from financing and investment
activities.
3. Deductions
– PER (Profit Equalization Reserve) & IRR
(Investment Risk Reserve): Deductions before
distributions to PSIA holders. 12
Case study
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Value at Risk – Historical method
2.9
2 3
Obs#
-12.644%
-12.658%
-12.791%
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Value at Risk – Historical method
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Expected Shortfall
Limitations of VaR:
• Non-additivity: Value at Risk (VaR) is not an
additive measure, making it challenging to assess
combined risks across different portfolios or risk
factors.
• Tail risk overlooked: VaR only indicates the
minimum loss at a specific confidence level,
without capturing potential extreme losses
beyond this threshold, leading to a possible false
sense of security.
• “Fat tails” Concern: If the distribution has a “fat
tail,” extreme losses become more likely,
suggesting that the actual risk may be higher than
indicated by VaR alone.
Expected Shortfall
ES as a solution:
• Captures tail losses: Expected Shortfall (ES), also known as
Conditional VaR, goes beyond VaR by measuring the average loss
when the loss exceeds the VaR threshold, offering a clearer picture of
tail risk.
– Calculation beyond VaR threshold.
• Improved risk management: ES provides a more robust measure for
managing risks in portfolios prone to extreme events or “black swan”
scenarios.
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Expected shortfall
Step 1: Gather data and determine VaR
– Suppose we have 100 daily returns for a portfolio, sorted from
worst to best.
– At a 95% confidence level, VaR corresponds to the worst 5% of
losses (i.e., the bottom 5 values in our sorted list of returns).
Step 2: Identify the VaR level
– Let’s say the returns for the bottom 5 days (the worst 5%) are: -
$2.5 million, -$2.2 million, -$1.8 million, -$1.7 million, and -$1.5
million.
– The VaR at a 95% confidence level is the smallest value in this
bottom 5% tail, which is -$1.5 million. So, there is a 5%
probability of a loss equal to or worse than $1.5 million.
Step 3: Calculate Expected Shortfall
– Expected Shortfall at the 95% confidence level is the average loss
in this worst 5% tail.
– We calculate the average of these 5 worst losses:
GAP Analysis
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GAP Analysis
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GAP Analysis
Conventional banks
Operational Risk is the risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate
or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events
Islamic banks
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Scope of operational risk
The risk that the irresponsible actions or behavior of management will damage the
Reputational risk trust of the bank’s clients.
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Scope of operational risk
Management
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Scope of operational risk
Shariah compliance The risk that the terms agreed in a contract do not effectively comply with Islamic
risk jurisprudence and thus are not valid under Islamic law
Scope of operational risk
The risk that the irresponsible actions or behavior of management will damage the
Reputational risk trust of the bank’s clients
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Sources of operational risk
External Internal
• Internal Fraud
• External Fraud
• Circumvention of
• Cyber crime
regulations
• Pandemic
• Technology risk
• Changes in regulations
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Measuring operational risk
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Measuring operational risk
• Defining and categorizing loss events:
– Banks start by identifying and defining both potential loss events and actual loss events.
– This involves categorizing events based on type (e.g., human error, fraud, system malfunction) and
business impact, enabling a clearer view of risk patterns.
• Data collection and analysis:
– Loss event databases: Banks develop comprehensive databases to track and monitor operational loss
events, supporting data-driven decision-making and compliance with regulatory standards.
– Constructing risk indicators: Metrics known as Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) are developed to measure the
likelihood and impact of operational risks. KRIs allow early detection of potential risks and help assess
trends over time.
• Modeling and quantitative analysis:
– Using statistical models, banks can estimate the frequency and severity of operational loss events. For
example, Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) uses historical data to predict losses and set capital
requirements.
– Scenario analysis: Evaluating hypothetical scenarios, such as cyberattacks or natural disasters, allows banks
to understand extreme risk events and their impact on operational resilience.
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Operational risk map Potential losses can be
categorized broadly as arising
from “high frequency, low
Impact
Exposure
One simple calculation All risk event types for each Internal Models ex.
for all risk event types Basel-defined business line Operational Loss
and all business lines distribution and scenario
Scenarios based models
Insurance Fixed percentage Based upon gross income, Firms determine their own
(currently 15%) of gross but divided along Basel II- capital charge based upon
income defined business lines and internal model
Industry
loss Gross income = 1mio respective beta charges
15% = 150K
KRI
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Basic indicator approach – capital charge
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Standardized approach – Capital charge
‒ To determine the total capital Standardized
required under the standardized
approach: All risk event types for each
Basel-defined business line
• A bank’s activities are classified into
eight distinct business lines.
• The average gross income for each Based upon gross income,
but divided along Basel II-
business line is then multiplied by the defined business lines and
respective beta charges
line’s beta factor.
• After that, the capital results from all
eight business lines are summed up.
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Standardized approach
The Basel Committee specifies eight business lines within the SA whereby regulatory capital
is calculated by means of multiplying a beta factor (β) with the average gross income for the
last three years for each business line. The loss data used in this example is extracted from the
retail division and thus falls under the “retail banking” business line for which the Basel Committee
proposes (β = 12%).
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Standardized approach – capital charge
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Advanced measurement approach – capital
charge
‒ The Basel Committee on Bank Supervision has identified seven categories of
operational risk:
1. Internal fraud
2. External fraud
3. Clients, products and business practices
4. Employment practices and work safety
5. Damage to physical assets
6. Business disruption and system failures
7. Execution, delivery, and process management
‒ Combining the seven categories of risk with the eight business lines gives a total of 7 x
8 = 56 potential sources of operational risk for a bank.
‒ Bank must estimate one-year 99.9% VaRs for each combination and then aggregate
them to determine a single one year 99.9% operational risk VaR measure.
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Market risk – Unhedged FX position
Assets Liabilities
EQUITY
DEPOSITS
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Market risk – Unhedged FX position
Assets Liabilities
Initial situation:
EQUITY
€ 1 = QAR 4
(QAR 20 mio)
FX DEPOSITS
(EUR 10 mio =
QAR 40 mio)
DEPOSITS
(QAR 40 mio)
DEPOSITS
(QAR 40 mio)
FX LOANS FX DEPOSITS
(EUR 10 mio = (EUR 10 mio =
QAR 40 mio) QAR 40 mio)
DEPOSITS
(QAR 40 mio)
DEPOSITS
(QAR 40 mio)
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Wa’ad
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Wa’ad
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Islamic Profit Rate Swap
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Islamic Profit Rate Swap
Term Murabaha
Installment 4:
Installment 3:
Installment 2:
Installment 1:
Installment 5:
$20
$20
$20
$20
$20 Sells commodities
Islamic Islamic
bank A Sells commodities bank B
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Islamic Profit Rate Swap
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Islamic options (Urbun)
• How it works:
– Agreement: The bank and seller agree on a future purchase price for the asset.
– Deposit payment: The bank pays a non-refundable deposit, which will go
toward the final price if the transaction is completed.
– Exercise or forfeit: If market conditions are favorable, the bank completes the
purchase at the agreed price. If conditions are unfavorable, the bank forfeits the
deposit and avoids a larger loss.
• Advantages for Islamic banks:
– Offers price protection without violating Shariah principles.
– Allows the bank to decide based on market conditions, limiting risk to the
deposit amount if it chooses not to complete the transaction.
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Islamic options (Urbun)
• Scenario: A Qatari Islamic bank expects oil prices to rise and wants to lock in a favorable rate.
• Contract details:
– Price per barrel: $50
– Quantity: 10,000 barrels
– Deposit (Urbun): $2 per barrel (total deposit = $20,000)
– Total purchase price if completed: $500,000
• Possible outcomes:
1. If oil prices increase:
• Market Price Rises to $55: The bank buys oil at the agreed $50 rate.
• Total Savings: $5 per barrel, equating to $50,000.
• Final Payment Due: $480,000 (total price of $500,000 - $20,000 deposit).
2. If oil prices decrease:
• Market Price Falls to $48: The bank forfeits the $20,000 deposit and avoids buying at $50.
• Loss Mitigation: Loss is limited to the deposit, saving the bank from a less favorable purchase.
• Conclusion: Urbun helps Islamic banks manage price risk within Shariah guidelines, using
deposits to secure options without engaging in speculative activities.
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References
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