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Understanding Binomial and Poisson Distributions

The document provides an overview of two probability distributions: the Binomial and Poisson distributions. The Binomial distribution is used to model experiments with two possible outcomes across independent trials, while the Poisson distribution models the count of events occurring in a fixed interval. Key formulas for mean and variance are also presented, along with examples illustrating their applications.

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Redalyn Dela Cruz
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12 views13 pages

Understanding Binomial and Poisson Distributions

The document provides an overview of two probability distributions: the Binomial and Poisson distributions. The Binomial distribution is used to model experiments with two possible outcomes across independent trials, while the Poisson distribution models the count of events occurring in a fixed interval. Key formulas for mean and variance are also presented, along with examples illustrating their applications.

Uploaded by

Redalyn Dela Cruz
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Probability Distributions

Binomial Distribution:
• It is discrete distribution.
• It is used to model an experiment for which:

1. The experiment has trials.


2. Two possible outcomes for each trial :
S= success and F= failure
3. (boy or girl, Saudi or non-Saudi,…)
4. The probability of success: is constant for each
trial.
5. The trials are independent; that is the outcome of
The one trial [Link]
discrete v. no effect on the outcome of any other
X =trial
The number of successes in the n trials has a
binomial distribution with parameter n and  , and we
write X ~ Binomial n,  
The probability distribution of X is given by:
 n  x
    1   n x
for x 0, 1, 2,  , n
PX  x    x 
0 otherwise

 n n!
where   
 x  x ! n  x !
We can write the probability distribution of X is a table
as follows.
x PX  x 
 n 0
0   1    1   
n 0 n

 0

1  n 1
  1   
n 1

 1

2  n 2
  1   
n 2

 2

: :
n1  n  n 1
  1   
2

 n  1

 n n
n   1     n
0

 n

Total 1
Result:
If X~ Binomial (n , π ) , then

•The mean:  n (expected value)


•The variance:  2
n 1   

Example: 4.2 (p.106)


Suppose that the probability that a Saudi man has high
blood pressure is 0.15. If we randomly select 6 Saudi
men, find the probability distribution of the number of
men out of 6 with high blood pressure. Also, find the
expected number of men with high blood pressure.
Solution:
X = The number of men with high blood pressure in 6
men.
S = Success: The man has high blood pressure
F = failure: The man does not have high blood pressure.
•Probability of success P(S) = π = 0.15
•no. of trials n=6
  0.15 
1   0.85
X ~ Binomial (6, 0.16)  
 n 6 
The probability distribution of X is:
 6 
  0.15 0.85 ; x 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
x 6 x
PX x   x 
 0 ; otherwise

 6
PX 0    0.15 0.85 10.15 0.85 0.37715
0 6 0 6

 0
 6
PX 1   0.15 0.85 60.1510.85 0.39933
1 5 5

 1
 6
PX 2   0.15 0.85 150.15 0.85 0.17618
2 4 2 4

 2
6
 
PX 3   0.15 0.85 200.15 0.85 0.04145
 3 3 3 3

 3
 6
P X 4    0.15 0.85 150.15 0.85 0.00549
4 2 4 2

 4
 6
PX 5   0.15 0.85 6 0.15 0.85 0.00039
5 1 5 1

 5
 6
PX 6    0.15 0.85 10.15 1 0.00001
6 0 6 0

 6
x PX  x 

0 0.37715
1 0.39933
2 0.17618
3 0.04145
4 0.00549
5 0.00039
6 0.00001

The expected number (mean) of men out of 6 with high


blood pressure is:  n 60.15 0.9
The variance is:  2 n 1    60.150.85 0.765
Poisson Distribution:

• It is discrete distribution.
• The discrete r. v. X is said to have a Poisson
distribution with parameter (average)  if the


 edistribution
probability
x

 ; for ofx X
0, 1is
, 2,given
3,  by
 x!
PX x  

 0 ; otherwise
ln x
where e = 2.71828 (the natural number x e ).
We write:
X ~ Poisson ( λ )
• The mean (average) of Poisson () is : μ=
λ
• The variance is:  2 
Therefore mean and variance are equal
•The Poisson distribution is used to model a discrete r.
v. which is a count of how many times a specified
random event occurred in an interval of time or space.

Example:
•No. of patients in a waiting room in an hours.
•No. of serious injuries in a particular factory in a
month.
•No. of calls received by a telephone operator in a day.
•No. of rates in each house in a particular city.
Note:
is the average (mean) of the distribution.

If X = The number of calls received in a month and


X ~ Poisson ()
then:
(i) Y = The no. calls received in a year.
Y ~ Poisson (*), where *=12
Y ~ Poisson (12)

(ii)W = The no. calls received in a day.


W ~ Poisson (*), where *=/30
W ~ Poisson (/30)
Example:
Suppose that the number of snake bites cases seen at
KKUH in a year has a Poisson distribution with average
6 bite cases.
1- What is the probability that in a year:
(i) The no. of snake bite cases will be 7?
(ii) The no. of snake bite cases will be less than 2?
2- What is the probability that in 2 years there will be
10 bite cases?
3- What is the probability that in a month there will be
no snake bite cases?
Solution:
(1) X = no. of snake bite cases in a year.
X ~ Poisson (6) (=6)
e 6 6x
PX x   ; x 0, 1, 2, 
x!

e  6 67
(i) PX 7)   0.13768
7!
(ii) PX  2  PX 0  PX 1
e  6 6 0 e  6 61
  0.01735
0! 1!
Y = no of snake bite cases in 2 years
Y ~ Poisson(12) (* 2 2 6  12)
e1212 y
PY  y   : y 0 , 1 , 2
y!
e  12 1210
 PY 10  0.1048
10
3- W = no. of snake bite cases in a month.
6 
W ~ Poisson (0.5)    0.5
**

12 12
e  .5 .5 w
P W w   : w 0 , 1 , 2 
w!

e  0.5 0.5
0

PW 0   0.6065
0!

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