A Mathematical Approach to
the Spread of Rumors on
Social Media
Presented by
1. Md Shahriar Kabir(232-15-289)
2. Md Shihab Pramanik Shitol(232-15-879)
3. Jogonnath Chandra Dey(232-15-514)
4. Salsabil Amir Arnob(232-15-515)
5. Md Maruf Khan(232-15-381)
Prologue
Rumor introductory
Basics of Rumor Propagation
Key Factors Influencing Spread
Mathematical Formulation
Controlling the Spread
Challenges and Limitations
Conclusion and Future Work
What is rumor?
A rumor is an unverified or false piece of
information that spreads informally from
person to person, often without credible
evidence to support it.
Rumors can be harmless, like gossip about
a celebrity, or harmful, like misinformation
during a crisis.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
Basics of Rumor Propagation
The SIR model is a mathematical framework used to study the
spread of phenomena, such as diseases, information, or
rumors, in a population. It divides the population into three
compartments:
S (Susceptible): Individuals who are not yet "infected" by the
rumor but are at risk of exposure.
I (Infected): Individuals who are actively spreading the rumor.
R (Removed/Recovered): Individuals who no longer spread the
rumor. This can happen because they lose interest, are
corrected by facts, or realize the rumor is false.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
The model uses differential equations to describe the
transitions between these compartments over time.
Key Factors Influencing the Spread of Rumors
The spread of rumors on social media is influenced by
several interrelated factors. Understanding these factors
provides insight into why some rumors go viral while
others fade away quickly.
User Engagement:
User interactions, such as likes, comments, and shares, play a
pivotal role in amplifying rumors. The more engaging a post is,
the more likely it is to be spread across networks.
Network Structure
The shape and connections within a social media network
greatly impact how far and fast a rumor can spread.
Platforms' Algorithms
Social media platforms use algorithms to prioritize certain types
of content, inadvertently promoting rumors.
Mathematical Formulation
Equations for the SIR model
•Define:
•β(beta): Rate of interaction.
•γ(gamma): Recovery/refusal rate.
Controlling the Spread
Controlling the spread of rumors using the SIR model framework involves strategies to reduce the
number of susceptible individuals (S) and the transmission rate (β), while increasing the recovery rate
(γ). Here’s how it can be done:
Strategies to Control Rumor Spread
1. Reduce Susceptibility (S)
•Public Awareness Campaigns
•Media Literacy Programs
•Preemptive Information
2. Reduce Transmission Rate (β)
•Regulation of Platforms
•Community Moderation
•Reduced Exposure
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
3. Increase Recovery Rate (γ)
•Fact-Checking
•Promote Corrections
•Engage Influencers
Challenges and Limitations
The SIR model provide valuable insights into how rumors spread on social
media, there are several challenges and limitations to consider.
• Assumption of Homogeneous Behavior
• Ignoring Platform-Specific Dynamics
• Lack of Real-Time Data
• Psychological Factors and Human Behavior
• Incomplete or Biased Data
Conclusion
Mathematical models, like the SIR model, offer valuable insights into how rumors spread on
social media by highlighting factors such as user engagement, network structure, and
content virality. However, challenges like the complexity of human behavior, platform-specific
dynamics, and ethical concerns limit the accuracy and effectiveness of these models. Future
advancements in AI, real-time data, and adaptive modeling are essential to improving rumor
control strategies while respecting privacy and free speech.
THANK
YOU