Random variables ASAP
Suppose that to each point of a sample space we assign a number. We then have a
function defined on the sample space.
This function is called a random variable or more precisely a random function. It is
usually denoted by a capital letter such as X or Y. In general, a random variable has
some specified physical, geometrical, or other significance.
A typical example of a random variable is the outcome of a coin toss. Consider a
probability distribution in which the outcomes of a random event are not equally likely
to happen. If the random variable Y is the number of heads we get from tossing two
coins, then Y could be 0, 1, or 2.
Random variables ASAP
Suppose that a coin is tossed twice so that the sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
Let X represent the number of heads that can come up. With each sample point we
can associate a number for X as shown in Table.
Thus, for example, in the case of HH (i.e., 2 heads), X 2 while for TH (1 head), X 1. It
follows that X is a random variable.
Discrete Random variables ASAP
A random variable that takes on a finite or countably infinite number of values is called
a discrete random variable while one which takes on a noncountable infinite number
of values is called a nondiscrete random variable.
For example, if six people are randomly selected from a population and how many of
the six are left-handed is to be determined, the random variable produced is discrete.
The only possible numbers of left-handed people in the sample of six are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, and 6. There cannot be 2.75 lefthanded people in a group of six people; obtaining
nonwhole number values is impossible.
Discrete Random variables ASAP
Other examples of experiments that yield discrete random variables include the
following:
[Link] selecting 25 people who consume soft drinks and determining how many
people prefer diet soft drinks
[Link] the number of defects in a batch of 50 items
[Link] the number of people who arrive at a store during a five-minute period
[Link] 100 registered voters and determining how many voted for the president
in the last election
Probability distribution ASAP
• Probability distribution yields the possible outcomes for any random event. It is also
defined based on the underlying sample space as a set of possible outcomes of
any random experiment. These settings could be a set of real numbers or a set of
vectors or a set of any entities.
• Random experiments are defined as the result of an experiment, whose outcome
cannot be predicted. Suppose, if we toss a coin, we cannot predict, what outcome it
will appear either it will come as Head or as Tail. The possible result of a random
experiment is called an outcome. And the set of outcomes is called a sample point.
With the help of these experiments or events, we can always create a probability
pattern table in terms of variables and probabilities.
Probability distribution ASAP
As a simple example of a probability
distribution, let us look at the number
observed when rolling two standard
six-sided dice. Each die has a 1/6
probability of rolling any single number,
one through six, but the sum of two
dice will form the probability distribution
depicted in the image below. Seven is
the most common outcome (1+6, 6+1,
5+2, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3). Two and twelve,
on the other hand, are far less likely
(1+1 and 6+6).
Probability distribution curve ASAP
Also sometimes referred to as a
"Frequency Distribution".
A curve, based on statistical modeling,
that shows all the values that a variable
can take and the likelihood that each will
occur.
In the statistical analysis of the service
life of assets, the probability distribution
refers to the curve for the
forecasted retirement of assets. Comparison of symmetrical and skewed probability
distributions.
Probability distribution ASAP
We will discuss two major discrete distributions:
1. binomial distribution
2. Poisson distribution
Binomial distribution ASAP
The most widely known of all discrete distributions is the binomial
distribution. The binomial distribution has been used for hundreds of
years.
As the word binomial indicates, any single trial of a binomial
experiment contains only two possible outcomes. These two outcomes
are labeled success or failure. Usually the outcome of interest to the
researcher is labeled a success.
Binomial distribution ASAP
A binomial distribution can be thought of as simply the probability of a
SUCCESS or FAILURE outcome in an experiment or survey that is
repeated multiple times.
The binomial is a type of distribution that has two possible
outcomes (the prefix “bi” means two, or twice). For example, a coin
toss has only two possible outcomes: heads or tails and taking a test
could have two possible outcomes: pass or fail.
Binomial distribution ASAP
If researchers are studying left-handedness, the outcome of getting a
left-handed person in a trial of an experiment is a success.
The other possible outcome of a trial in a binomial experiment is called
a failure. The word failure is used only in opposition to success.
In the preceding experiments, a failure could be to get an acceptable
part (as opposed to a defective part) or to get a right-handed person
(as opposed to a left-handed person). In a binomial distribution
experiment, any one trial can have only two possible, mutually
exclusive outcomes (right-handed/left-handed, defective/good,
male/female, etc.).
Assumptions of the Binomial distribution ASAP
■ The experiment involves n identical trials.
■ Each trial has only two possible outcomes denoted as success or
as failure.
■ Each trial is independent of the previous trials.
■ The terms p and q remain constant throughout the experiment,
where the term p is the probability of getting a success on any one
trial and the term q = (1 - p) is the probability of getting a failure on
any one trial
Binomial distribution ASAP
The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution. In n trials, only x
successes are possible, where x is a whole number between 0 and n.
For example, if five parts are randomly selected from a batch of parts,
only 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 defective parts are possible in that sample. In a
sample of five parts, getting 2.714 defective parts is not possible, nor is
getting eight defective parts possible.
Binomial distribution ASAP
In a binomial experiment, the trials must be independent. This constraint means
that either the experiment is by nature one that produces independent trials (such
as tossing coins or rolling dice) or the experiment is conducted with replacement.
The effect of the independent trial requirement is that p, the probability of getting a
success on one trial, remains constant from trial to trial.
For example, suppose 5% of all parts in a bin are defective. The probability of
drawing a defective part on the first draw is p = .05. If the first part drawn is not
replaced, the second draw is not independent of the first, and the p value will
change for the next draw. The binomial distribution does not allow for p to change
from trial to trial within an experiment.
Poisson distribution ASAP
The Poisson probability distribution is a discrete probability
distribution that represents the probability of a given number of events
happening in a fixed time or space if these cases occur with a known
steady rate and individually of the time since the last event.
It was titled after French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson. The
Poisson distribution can also be practised for the number of events
happening in other particularised intervals such as distance, area or
volume.
Poisson distribution ASAP
The Poisson distribution focuses only on the number of discrete
occurrences over some interval or continuum. A Poisson experiment
does not have a given number of trials (n) as a binomial experiment
does.
For example, whereas a binomial experiment might be used to
determine how many Indian-made cars are in a random sample of 20
cars, a Poisson experiment might focus on the number of cars
randomly arriving at an automobile repair facility during a 10-minute
interval.
Poisson distribution ASAP
The Poisson distribution describes the occurrence of rare events.
For example, serious accidents at a chemical plant are rare, and the
number per month might be described by the Poisson distribution. The
Poisson distribution often is used to describe the number of random
arrivals per some time interval. If the number of arrivals per interval is
too frequent, the time interval can be reduced enough so that a rare
number of occurrences is expected. Another example of a Poisson
distribution is the number of random customer arrivals per five-minute
interval at a small boutique on weekday mornings
Assumptions of Poisson distribution ASAP
• It is a discrete distribution.
• It describes rare events.
• Each occurrence is independent of the other occurrences.
• It describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval.
• The occurrences in each interval can range from zero to infinity.
• The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout
the experiment.
Poisson distribution ASAP
Examples of Poisson-type situations include the following:
[Link] of telephone calls per minute at a small business
[Link] of hazardous waste sites per state in the India
[Link] of arrivals at a turnpike tollbooth per minute between 3 A.M.
and 4 A.M. in January on the Kansas Turnpike
[Link] of sewing flaws per pair of jeans during production
[Link] of times a tire blows on a commercial airplane per week
ASAP
Thank you