Probabilistic Risk
Analysis
ASSESSING RISK, CONSIDERING CHANCES AND UNCERTAINTIES.
What is Probability?
“A strong likelihood or chance of something”
([Link])
“The likelihood of something occurring or the chance of
something happening” ([Link])
What is Uncertainty?
“Unpredictability; indeterminacy; indefiniteness”
([Link])
“Doubt” ([Link])
Uncertainty (from limitations of data, models, or
calculations) lower our confidence in our conclusions.
(Environmental Protection Agency, 2014)
Risk and Probability
Risk is the probability of a hazard occurring
Risk cannot be exactly determined because the
occurrence of a hazard is not guaranteed
Risk is estimated using reliable data: historical
records, population statistics, geographical surveys,
etc.
Probabilistic Risk Analysis/Assessment (PRA) refers to
the use of probability to evaluate risk.
Risk and Probability – Flood Example
Flood recurrence intervals – ways to communicate the
probability of a flood occurring
“100-year flood”
Myth: flood that occurs once every 100 years
Reality: flood that has a 1% chance of occurring any year
Same applies for 500-year (1/500 = 0.2% chance), 1000-
year (1/1000 = 0.1% chance), etc.
(Brown et al., 2018)
Risk and Probability – Flood Example
Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM)
Maps created by FEMA to management/mitigate
floodplains and provide insurance information
Information reveals which areas could be affected by
heavy/frequent floods
Determines insurance premiums
(Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2019)
Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Analysis
(PRA)
Analytical approach that incorporates probability and
uncertainty into risk assessment
Determines how risk varies among different
population segments
Determines key influencers of
uncertainties/variabilities
(Environmental Protection Agency, 2014)
Basic PRA Methodology + Examples
Methodology Examples for Application
1. Identify risky scenario • Driving through an intersection
2. Understand mechanism • Crossing the street (jaywalking)
3. Estimate frequency • Playing a competitive sport
4. Determine consequences • Breaking curfew
• Gambling
• Going outside during a storm
Benefits of PRA
Provides information about the uncertainty of the
data, models, scenarios, etc. used in risk assessment
Estimates the degree of confidence in a decision
Estimate the trade-offs in different risk management
options
(Environmental Protection Agency, 2014)
Why Use PRA?
Identify essential risk factors and prioritize them
Design controls specific to those risks
Be aware of uncertainties and variable factors
Optimize decision-making improve risk
management
(Shah, 2004)
PRA For Decision-Making Assistance
Identifies weaknesses in complex systems
Enables and prioritizes improvement
Compare different strategies by various metrics
Designed to consider any/all possible failures
Could reveal hidden surprises
Could provide unforeseen alternatives
Example: CAPRA
CAPRA: Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk
Assessment
Computer application used for risk assessment/mapping
Includes software modules for various specific hazards
Analyzes past statistical data to simulate hazard
intensities and frequencies
(Cardona et al., 2012)