Recruitment -

HR Planning
 Employee Benefits News reported in 2017 that turnover
can cost employers 33 percent of an employee’s annual
salary. The culprit? The hiring of a replacement. To put a
dollar amount on it, if the employee earned a median salary
of $45,000 a year, this would cost the company $15,000 per
person — on top of the annual $45,000. Considering that a
survey from Willis Tower Watson found that one in three
hires will leave a company within two years, you see how
quickly this can add up.
 It costs much less to retain a worker
than to recruit, onboard, and train a new
hire. It costs 6 to 9 months’ salary, on
average, to replace a worker. For a
worker making $60,000 per year, that’s
$30,000 – $45,000 in recruiting and
training costs. Turnover costs US
organizations around a trillion dollars a
year.
• Decide what positions to fill
• Build a pool of job candidates
• Obtain application forms
• Use selection tools
• Decide to whom to make an offer
• Orient, train, and develop employees
• Appraise employees
• Compensate employees to maintain their motivation
Talent management—is the integrated, results and goal-
oriented process of recruiting, selecting, developing,
motivating, and retaining employees who aligns with
organization values.

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 Forecasting Personnel Needs
 Personnel needs
 Supply of inside candidates
 Supply of outside candidates
 Labour demand

 Example :

 PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS – are expected to face high level of entry levels of
natural retirement
 How to tackle this?
 BOB
 Approaching open market to recruit experienced employees
 Intensified entry level recruitment
 Demand Analysis

 Short term demand – Daily, Weekly and Seasonal

 Long term demands – United Airlines predicts 12000 of the

pilots will retire in next ten years.
Forecasting Supply of inside candidates
 Personnel replacement chart

 Position replacement chart

 Succession planning

 Markov analysis
 Forecasting supply of Outside
Candidates
 Predictive workforce monitoring

 Labour supply and demand analysis

 Wheebox
 [Link]

 [Link]

Presentation title 12
 Forecasting Demand for Employees
 The next phase of effective HR planning process is estimating
not only how many but also what kinds of employees will be
needed
 Forecasting yields advance estimates or calculations of the
organization’s staffing requirement
 The demand for employees is closely tied to the strategic
direction that the organization has chosen
 Despite of many quantitative tools, human judgement has
great importance in forecasting
 Delphi Technique

Expert estimates from a number of

individuals in an iterative manner –
estimates are revised by each
individual based on knowledge of the
other individuals’ estimates
 Nominal Group Technique

Individual generation of estimates is

followed by group brainstorming
sessions in the hope of generating one
group decision that is preferred over
any other individual decision
 Trend Projection
 It is a forecast based on a past relationship between a
factor related to employment and employment itself
 The planner can develop a table or graph showing the
past relationship between the factor and the
employment
 Trend Projection – Example
Year Sales Employee Census

2015 Rs. 100,00,00,00,000 5000

2016 Rs. 120,00,00,00,000 6000

2017 Rs. 140,00,00,00,000 7000

2018 Rs. 160,00,00,00,000 8000

Forecast Sales Forecast Employee Forecast

2019 Rs. 180,00,00,00,000 9000

2020 Rs. 200,00,00,00,000 10000

 Trend Projection – Example
Forecast adjusted for
Employee
Year Sales Annual Productivity Rate
Census
Increase of 3%
Rs.
2015 5000 5000
100,00,00,00,000
Rs.
2016 6000 5825
120,00,00,00,000
Rs.
2017 7000 6598
140,00,00,00,000
Rs.
2018 8000 7321
160,00,00,00,000
Employee
Forecast Sales Forecast
Forecast
Rs.
2019 9000 7996
180,00,00,00,000
 Modelling with Multiple-Predictive Techniques
 Trend projection relate a single factor (for example,
sales) to employment
 The more advanced approach relate many factors like
sales, gross national product, discretionary income, etc.
 Markov Chain Analysis involves developing matrix to
show the probability of an employee’s moving from one
position to another or leaving the organization
 Markov Analysis : Example
Business 2017 Level of 2018 Level of
Gain Loss
Unit Employees Employees
A 200 60 40 220
B 500 40 50 490
C 300 35 45 290

Business Employees Employees Probability of

2017
Unit Lost Retained Retention
A 200 40 160 160 / 200 = 0.80
B 500 50 450 450/500 = 0.90
C 300 45 255 255 / 300 = 0.85
 Regression Analysis
 It is a mathematical procedure that predicts
dependent variable on the basis of the knowledge of
factors known as independent variables
 When only one dependent and one independent
variables are studied, it is called ‘simple regression’
 When there is more than one independent variable
being considered, the technique is referred as
‘multiple regression’
 Regression Analysis in HR Planning
 Multiple regression is widely used in HR planning as it
emphasizes two or more independent variables
 HR planning specialist can quickly and easily
determine the relationship between a large number of
predictors and dependent variable
 Statistical packages like SPSS, SAS are widely used
 Unit Demand Forecasting
 It is the bottom-up approach to forecasting demand
 The unit (department, team, or any other group)
manager analyzes the person-by-person, job-by-job
needs in the present as well as the future
 When units forecast their own needs, the HR executive
would sum their estimates to arrive the forecast
 What if Forecasts Conflict?
 The manager reconciles the two totals by averaging them
or examining more closely the major variances between
the two
 Delphi technique could be used to arrive at the
conclusion
 Nominal Group Technique can also be useful in resolving
any discrepancies between different expert’s opinions
 One or several forecast techniques can be used together
to produce a single employment forecast
Analyzing Current Supply of
Employees
Analyzing the Current Supply of Employees

This phase of HR Planning is designed to

answer the important question – “how many
employees and what kinds of employees do
we currently have in terms of skills and
training necessary for the future?”
 Skill Inventory
 Skill Inventory in its simplest form is a list of names,
characteristics, and skills of the people working for the
organization
 It is essential to note what kinds of skills, abilities,
experiences, and training the employees currently
have
 By keeping the track of these, the organization can
quickly determine whether a particular skill is
available when it is needed
Main Categories of Skill Inventory Headings

Data summarizing employee’s past

Data summarizing the status of present

skills

Data that focus on the future

 Data Summarizing Employee’s Past
 Titles and brief job description highlights from
positions held in last 2 -5 years
 Critical Skills needed or developed while in these
positions
 Educational Qualification
 Significant projects accomplished during the last three
years
 Data Summarizing Employee’s Present
Skills
 Skill related highlights: Last three performance
appraisal
 Employee’s perception of what is done well on present
job
 Same data from the employee’s supervisor
 Data that focus on future
 Personal career goals
 Views of the individual’s present supervisor
 Specific training and development efforts the
individual is motivated to undertake
 Actions decisions in HRP
 Action decision with a shortage of employees-
Overtime, promotion, part- time worker,
subcontractors, independent professionals,
moonlighting
 Action Decisions in surplus- attrition, early
retirement (Golden handshake), demotions, lay
off and terminations
 Activity- 2
ASB is undergoing the human resource planning process. The institute is expecting an
increase in student intake in the coming years. So, the administrator wants to take the
stock of the situation and plan for human resources.
Important information –
1. The current student strength of Univ is 350.
2. The institute will be admitting 120 students in the academic year 2023-24. The
intake will further increase in the subsequent years.
3. The advisable teacher-student ratio is 1:10.
4. In the past, the institute has witnessed a rate of turnover up to 10%.
5. Each functional area carries equal importance.
Visit the Amrita website to find the details of existing faculty members and come up
with a Human Resource plan for ASB