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Corporate Bond Valuation Guide

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9 views53 pages

Corporate Bond Valuation Guide

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© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

ĐẠI HỌC FPT CẦN THƠ

Chapter 8: Bond Valuation and


the Structure of Interest Rates
Learning Objectives

1. Describe the market for corporate bonds and three


types of corporate bonds.
2. Explain how to calculate the value of a bond and
why bond prices vary negatively with interest rate
movements.
3. Distinguish between a bond’s coupon rate, yield to
maturity, and effective annual yield.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 2


Learning Objectives

4. Explain why investors in bonds are subject to


interest rate risk and why it is important to
understand the bond theorems.
5. Discuss the concept of default risk and know how
to compute a default risk premium.
6. Describe the factors that determine the level and
shape of the yield curve.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 3


Corporate Bonds

Market for Corporate Bonds


Life insurance companies and pension funds buy
most corporate bonds
Transactions tend to be in very large dollar
amounts.
Less than 1% of all corporate bonds are traded
on organized exchanges
Most transactions take place through dealers
in the over-the-counter (OTC) market.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 4


Corporate Bonds

Market for Corporate Bonds


Only a small fraction of the bonds outstanding
are traded each day.
The market is thin compared to markets for
money-market securities and stocks.
Corporate bonds are less marketable than
securities with large daily trading volumes.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 5


Corporate Bonds

Bond Price Information


Corporate bond pricing is not considered
transparent.
It is difficult for investors to obtain important
information on prices and volume.
Many transactions are negotiated directly
between buyer and seller with little centralized
reporting of transaction details.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 6


Corporate Bonds

Features of Corporate Bonds


long-term claims against company assets
face (par) value is $1,000
coupon rate is the annual coupon payment (C) divided by
a bond’s face value (F)
fixed amounts paid to lenders for the life of the contract

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 7


Vanilla Bonds

Types of Corporate Bonds


Vanilla bond
coupon payments fixed for the life of the bond
repay principal and retire the bonds at maturity
contracts have the features and provisions found in most bond
covenants.
annual or semiannual coupon payments

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 8


Zero Coupon Bonds

Types of Corporate Bonds


Zero coupon bond
no coupon payments
pays face value at maturity.
sell at deep discount

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 9


Convertible Bonds

Types of Corporate Bonds


Convertible bonds
may be exchanged for shares of the firm’s stock
sells for a higher price than a comparable non-convertible bond
bondholders benefit if the market value of the company’s stock
gets high enough

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 10


Bond Valuation

bond price
In an efficient market, the price of an asset equals the
present value of its future cash flows.
To calculate a bond’s price, follow the same process used
to value any financial asset.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 11


Bond Valuation

calculate bond price


Determine the required rate-of-return
Determine expected future cash flows – the coupon
payments and par value
Compute the current market value, or price (PB) by
calculating the present value of the expected cash flows

PB = PVCoupon Payments+ PVPar Value

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 12


Bond Valuation

general equation for the price of a bond

C C C F
P    ... 
1 2 n n
(8.1)
(1  i ) (1  i ) (1  i )
B 1 2 n

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 13


Cash Flows for a Three-Year Bond

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 14


Bond Valuation

Bond Valuation Example


Calculator solution
Determine the price of the bond in Exhibit 8.1 with a financial
calculator

3 10 80 1,000
Enter
N i PV PMT FV
Answer -950.26

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 15


Bond Valuation

Par, Premium, and Discount Bonds


If a bond’s coupon rate is equal to its yield, its price
equals its face value; it is a par bond
If a bond’s coupon rate is less than its yield, its price is
less than its face value; it is a discount bond
If a bond’s coupon rate is greater than its yield, its price
is greater than its face value; it is a premium bond

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 16


Bond Valuation

Semiannual Compounding
Most bonds issued in Europe pay annual coupons, most
issued in the U.S. pay semiannual coupons
Eq. 8.2 shows how to value bonds that pay semi-annual
coupons

C m C m C m C mF
P     ...  mn
( 8.2 )
(1  i m ) (1  i m ) (1  i m ) (1  i m )
B 1 2 3 mn

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 17


Bond Valuation

Semiannual Compounding Example


What is the price of a three-year, 5% coupon bond with
a market yield of 8% and semi-annual coupon
payments?
Semi-annual market yield = 8%/2 = 4%
Semi-annual coupon payment = $50/2 = $25

$25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25  $1000


P      
(1.04 ) (1.04 ) (1.04 ) (1.04 ) (1.04 ) (1.04 )
B 1 2 3 4 5 6

 $24.04  $23.11  $22.22  $21.37  $20.55  $810.07


 $921.36

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 18


Bond Valuation

Calculator Solution
Semiannual Compounding Example

6 4 25 1,000
Enter
N i PV PMT FV
Answer -921.37

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 19


Bond Valuation

Zero Coupon Bonds


Zero coupon bonds do not make coupon payments but
pay their face value at maturity
The price (or yield) of a zero coupon bond is a special
case of Equation 8.2, where all coupon payments equal
zero

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 20


Bond Valuation

Zero Coupon Bonds


Pricing equation for a zero coupon bond

F
P  mn
( 8 .3 )
(1  i m )
B mn

Zero coupon bonds pay cash only at maturity and must


sell for less than similar bonds which make periodic
interest payments

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 21


Bond Valuation

Zero Coupon Bond Price Example


What is the price of a zero coupon bond with a $1,000
face value, 10-year maturity, and semiannual
compounding? The market rate on similar bonds is 12%.

$1000 $1000
P    $311 .80
(1  0.12 2) (1  0.06 )
B 20 20

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 22


Bond Yields

Yield to Maturity (YTM)


YTM
the rate that makes the present value of the
bond’s cash flows equal the price of bond
the rate a bondholder earns if the bond is held
to maturity and all coupon and principal
payments are made as promised
– changes daily as interest rates change

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 23


Bond Yields

Effective Annual Yield


In bond trading, the EAR is called the effective annual
yield (EAY). The way to annualize a bond yield

EAY  (1  Quoted rate/m) - 1 m

Simple annual yield is yield per period multiplied by the


number of compounding periods; for bonds with annual
compounding, simple annual yield = semiannual yield 
2

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 24


Bond Yields

Yield to Maturity and Effective Annual Yield


Example
An investor buys a 30-year bond with a $1,000
face value for $800. The bond’s coupon rate is
8% and interest payments are made semi-
annually. What are the bond’s yield to maturity
and effective annual yield?

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 25


Bond Yields

Yield to Maturity and Effective Annual Yield


Example
Step 1:

60 -800 40 1,000
Enter
N i PV PMT FV
Answer 5.07

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 26


Bond Yields

Yield to Maturity and Effective Annual Yield


Example
Step 2:
Calculate YTM

.0507 2
Enter
x =
Answer .1014

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 27


Bond Yields

Yield to Maturity and Effective Annual Yield


Example
Step 3:
Calculate EAY

1.0507 - =
Enter
X2 1

Answer .1040

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 28


Bond Yields

Realized Yield
The return earned on a bond given the cash flows
actually received by investor
The interest rate at which the present value of actual
cash flows generated by the investment equals bond’s
price
The realized yield is important because it allows investors
to see what they actually earned on their investments.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 29


Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 30
Interest Rate Risk

Bond Theorems
Bond theorems are statements about the math used
in bond pricing.
Bond prices are inversely related to interest rate
movements.
As interest rates decline, prices of bonds rise; as
interest rates rise, prices of bonds decline.
For a given change in interest rates, prices of
longer-term bonds change more than prices of
shorter-term bonds.
Interest rate risk increases as maturity increases,
but at a decreasing rate.
Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 31
Relation Between Bond Price Volatility
and Maturity
Exhibit 8.2 Relation Between Bond Price Volatility and Maturity

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 32


Interest Rate Risk

Bond Theorems
For a given change in interest rates, prices of lower-
coupon bonds change more than prices of higher-coupon
bonds.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 33


Relation Between Bond Price Volatility
and the Coupon Rate

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 34


Interest Rate Risk

Bond Theorem Applications


If interest rates are expected to increase, avoid long-
term bonds – they will experience the largest price
declines.
If interest rates are expected to decline, buy zero-coupon
bonds. Their prices will increase more than those of
coupon-paying bonds.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 35


The Structure of Interest Rates

Risk Characteristics of Bonds


Four features of debt instruments are responsible for
most of the differences in corporate borrowing costs and
determine the level and structure of interest rates:
Marketability
Call feature
Default risk
Term-to-maturity

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 36


The Structure of Interest Rates

Marketability
How quickly and easily a security can be sold at at low
transaction cost and at fair market value
The selling price varies directly with the degree of marketability.
The transaction cost varies inversely with the degree of
marketability.
The yield-to-maturity varies inversely with the degree of
marketability.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 37


The Structure of Interest Rates

Marketability
The difference in yields between a highly marketable
security (ihigh mkt) and a less marketable security (ilow mkt) is
the marketability risk premium (MRP)

U.S. Treasury bills are considered the most marketable of


all securities

MRP = ilow mkt – ihigh mkt > 0

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 38


The Structure of Interest Rates

Call Provision
Bond issuer’s option to purchase a bond from the
bondholder at a predetermined price before maturity.
When bonds are called, bondholders suffer financial loss because
they must surrender higher-yield bonds and replace them with
lower-yield bonds.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 39


The Structure of Interest Rates

Call Provision
The difference in interest rates between a callable bond
and a non-callable bond is the call premium (CIP)

CIP  i - i call no call


 0
Callable bonds sell for lower prices and higher yields than
non-callable bonds
Bonds paying high yields are more likely to be called
when interest rates decline; these bonds have a high CIP

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 40


The Structure of Interest Rates

Default Risk
Risk that a borrower may not make payments as
promised
Lenders are paid a default risk premium for purchasing
securities with default risk
The default risk premium (DRP) is the difference
between the yield on a security with default risk, idr, and
the risk-free rate, irf
Yield on T-bills is a proxy for the risk-free rate.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 41


The Structure of Interest Rates

Bond Ratings
Individuals and small businesses rely on outside agencies
for information on the default potential of bonds.
The two most prominent credit rating agencies are Moody’s
Investors Service (Moody’s) and Standard & Poor’s (S&P).
– Both services rank bonds in order of probability of default and
publish ratings as letter grades.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 42


The Structure of Interest Rates

Bond Ratings
The highest grade bonds have the lowest default risk and
are rated Aaa or AAA.
Investment grade bonds are rated Aaa to Baa.
State and federal laws typically require commercial banks,
insurance companies, pension funds, certain other financial
institutions, and government agencies to purchase only
investment-grade securities.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 43


Corporate Bond Rating Systems

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 44


Default Risk Premiums for Selected Bond
Ratings

Exhibit 8.5 Default Risk Premiums for Selected Bond Ratings

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 45


The Structure of Interest Rates

Term Structure of Interest Rates


The term structure of interest rates
the relationship between yield to maturity and term-to-maturity
on a bond
the graph of the term structure of interest rates is a yield curve
– The shape and position of the yield curve are not constant.
– As the overall level of interest rates changes, the yield curve shifts
up and down and changes its shape and slope.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 46


The Structure of Interest Rates

basic shapes (slopes) of yield curves


1. Ascending or normal yield curves slope upward from
left to right and imply higher interest rates are likely
2. Descending or inverted yield curves slope downward
from left to right and imply lower interest rates are
likely
3. Flat yield curves imply interest rates unlikely to change

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 47


The Structure of Interest Rates

Shape of the Yield Curve


Three factors that influence the shape of the
yield curve
1) Real rate of interest

2) Expected rate of inflation


3) Interest rate risk

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 48


The Structure of Interest Rates

The Real Rate of Interest


The real rate of interest changes with the
business cycle.
Highest rates occur at the end of an economic
expansion.
Lowest rates occur at the end of an economic
contraction.
Changes in the expected future real rate of
interest can affect the level of the yield curve.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 49


The Structure of Interest Rates

The Expected Rate of Inflation


If higher inflation is forecast, the yield curve will slope
upward because longer-term yields will contain a larger
inflation premium than shorter-term yields
If investors believe inflation will subside, the yield curve
will slope downward

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 50


The Structure of Interest Rates

Interest Rate Risk


The longer the maturity of a security, the greater its
interest rate risk – the risk of selling the security at a
lower price - and the higher its yield-to-maturity
The interest rate risk premium adds upward bias to the
slope of the yield curve

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 51


Yield Curves for Treasury Securities at
Three Different Points in Time
Exhibit 8.6

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 52


The Structure of Interest Rates

Cumulative Effect of Factors


In an economic expansion, the real rate of interest and
the inflation premium increase monotonically . Interest
rate risk increases.
In an economic contraction, the real rate of interest and
inflation premium decrease monotonically. Interest rate
risk decreases.

Chapter 8 – Corporate Finance - Trương Đạt Anh 53

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