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Joint Probability and Rules Explained

The document discusses probability rules including joint probability, conditional probability, negation, inclusion-exclusion, marginalization, and conditioning. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to apply these rules including calculating P(C|rain) and P(C=cloud) from a table of probability values.

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mahnoorsadiq193
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7 views11 pages

Joint Probability and Rules Explained

The document discusses probability rules including joint probability, conditional probability, negation, inclusion-exclusion, marginalization, and conditioning. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to apply these rules including calculating P(C|rain) and P(C=cloud) from a table of probability values.

Uploaded by

mahnoorsadiq193
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Lecture 15

Joint Probability and


Probability Rules
PM
AM

C = cloud C = ¬cloud R = rain R = ¬rain


0.4 0.6 0.1 0.9

PM
AM

R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
P(C | rain)
P(C, rain)
P(C | rain) = = αP(C, rain)
P(rain)

= α⟨0.08, 0.02⟩ = ⟨0.8,


0.2⟩
R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
Probability
Rules
Negation

P( ¬ a) = 1 −
P(a)
Inclusion-Exclusion

P(a ∨ b) = P(a) + P(b) − P(a ∧


b)
Marginalization

P(a) = P(a, b) + P(a,


¬b)
Marginalization

P(X = xi) = ∑ P(X = xi, Y =


yj )
j
Marginalization
R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58

P(C = cloud)
= P(C = cloud, R = rain) + P(C = cloud, R =
¬rain)
= 0.08 + 0.32
= 0.40
Conditioning

P(a) = P(a | b)P(b) + P(a |


¬ b)P( ¬ b)
Conditioning

P(X = xi) = ∑ P(X = xi | Y = yj)P(Y =


yj)
j

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