FORECASTING METHOD

FOUR (4) STEPS

 • Estimates total number and types
TRIP of trips originating and
GENERATION terminating in area/zones

• Computes number of trips

TRIP between one zone and all
DISTRIBUTION other

• Percentage of travel of
MODAL SPLIT particular transportation
mode

• Concerned with selection of

TRAFFIC routes/path between origins
ASSIGNMENT and destination in a
transportation network
 MODAL SPLIT
 Modal Split estimates the distribution of travel demand among
different transportation modes, such as walking, cycling, public
transport and private vehicles.

 It is an essential aspect of transportation planning as it helps to

understand the use of different transportation modes by travellers
and to develop strategies to encourage the use of sustainable
transportation modes.

 Such strategies may include improving the accessibility of public

transport, developing cycling and pedestrian infrastructure,
providing incentives for the use of sustainable modes, and
implementing policies such as road pricing, parking management,
and congestion charges to discourage the use of private vehicles.
Factors Affecting the Choice of
Mode
Characteristics of the Trip

Socio-economic Characteristics

Zonal Characteristics

Characteristics of the Transportation

System
 Characteristics of the Trip

I. Trip Purpose
• Choice of mode is guided to a certain extent
by the trip purpose.
II. Trip Length
• Length can govern an individual choice of a
particular mode
• A measure of trip length is also possible by
the travel time and the cost of travelling.
III. Time of the Day
Socio-economics Characteristics

I. Income
• Higher income groups use private cars more
frequently
II. Car Ownership
• Car ownership and income are inter-related
in their effect on modal choice
III. Family Size and Composition
• No. of persons in the family
• No. of school going children , etc.
 Zonal Characteristics

I. Residential Density
• Public transport increases as the residential
density increases.
II. Concentration of Workers
III. Distance from central business districts
 Characteristics of the
Transportation System

I. Travel Time
II. Travel Cost
III. Comfort and Convenience
IV. Reliability
The travel time by public transport is
composed of:
• Time spent walking to public transport
vehicle at origin
• Time spent for waiting for public transport
vehicle
• Time spent in public transport vehicle
• Time spent in transfer from one public
transport vehicle to another
• Time spent walking from public transport
vehicle at destination.
 The travel time by private car is
composed of:
• Time spent driving the car.
• Time spent parking at destination, and
• Time spent in walking from parked vehicle to
destination

It is generally found that as the travel time ratio

increases, the usage of the public transport
system falls down.
 Disaggregate Choice Model
 Assumes that trip maker selects mode which
provides most economic utility.
MODAL SPLIT

 LOGIT MODEL
 The probability that a trip maker will select one
mode option, m, is equal to the probability that
the option’s utility is greater than the utility of
the other opinion.

 GENERAL EQUATION
𝑢𝑚
𝑒
𝑃 𝑚=
∑ 𝑒
𝑢 𝑚′
  GENERAL EQUATION
𝑢𝑚
𝑒
𝑃 𝑚=
∑𝑒 𝑢 𝑚′
MODAL SPLIT

 Where:
= probability of mode m to be chosen
m’ = index over all modes included in chosen set

 When only two choices for modes is given,

equation is simplified into binary logit model
𝑢𝑚
𝑒
𝑃 𝑚=
∑ 𝑒
𝑢 2 −𝑢1
Example 1
Example 1

𝑢𝑚
Compute for the probabilities using logit model: 𝑒
𝑃 𝑚=
∑ 𝑒
𝑢 𝑚′

Mode Trip Maker

Private -0.41 0.664 0.320 320
Bus -0.445 0.641 0.309 309
Transit -0.265 0.767 0.370 370
Total 2.072 1000
Example 2
Example 2
Solution:
 Compute for utility
function in each mode

Trip Maker
= x 5000

Mode Trip Maker

Mode Trip Maker
Private -0.41 -0.41 0.320 320
Car -5.6 0.0037 0.0645 323
Bus -0.445 -0.445 0.309 309
Bus -3.2 0.0408 0.7108 3554
Transit -0.265 -0.265 0.370 370
Light Rail -4.35 0.0129 0.2247 1123
Total 100
Total 0.0574
 Direct Generation Model
 Transit Trips can be generated directly by estimating either total
person trips or auto driver trips. Figure 1 illustrates the
relationship between number of transit trips per 1000 population
MODAL SPLIT

and persons per acre versus automobile ownership.

 It can be expected that transit ridership will also increase for a
given level of auto ownership

Figure 1
Example 3
Determine the number o transit trips per day in a zone which has 5000 people living
on 50 acres. The auto ownership is 40% of zero autos per household and 60% of one
auto per household.
Solution:
Calculate the number of persons per acre

Then determine the no. of transit per day for

1000 persons from the figure to calculate
the total of all transit trips per day for the
zone.

Zero autos HH: 510 trips/day/1000 persons

One auto HH: 250 trips/day/1000 persons

Total Transit Trips

= (0.4)(510)(5) + (.6)(250)(5)
= 1,020 + 50
= 1770 transit trips per day
 Trip End Model
To determine the percentage of total person on auto trips
MODAL SPLIT

that will use transit, estimates are made prior to the trip
distribution phased based on land-uses or socioeconomic
characteristics of the zone. This method dos not
incorporate the quality of the service.
The procedure follows:
 Generate total person trip productions and attractions
by trip purpose
 Compute the Urban Travel Factor
 Determine the percentage of these trips by transit
using a mode choice curve
 Apply auto occupancy factors
 Distribute transit and auto trips separately.
 Two variables serve as the foundation for this model:
households per auto and people per acre. The Urban
Travel Factor (UTF) is the result of these variables. As the
UTF rises, the percentage of travel by transit will rise in a
"S" curve pattern.
MODAL SPLIT
Example 4
In a hypothetical zone, total trips generated are 8,000 trips per day. The number of
families per auto is 2.2, and the population density is equal to 12,000 persons per
square miles. What is the share of travelers who are expected to ride transit?

Solution:
Compute the urban travel factor:

UTF=) ()
UTF: (2.2) (12,000)= 26.4

From the figure, it is estimated

that transit trips comprise around
47% of total trips.
 Trip Interchange Model
 In this method, system level-of-service variables are considered,
including relative travel time, travel cost and economic status of the trip
maker and relative travel service.
MODAL SPLIT

 An example of this procedure takes account of the service parameters in

estimating mode choice using the following relationships:
 Trip Interchange Model
The data required for estimating mode choice
MODAL SPLIT

include:
1. Distance between zones by auto or transit
2. Transit Fare
3. Out-of-pocket auto cost
4. Parking cost
5. Highway and transit speed
6. Exponent value b
7. Median income
8. Excess time
* Assume that the time worked per year is 120,000
minutes.
Example 5
Assume that the data shown in Table 1 have been developed for travel
between a suburban zone S and a downtown zone D. Determine the
percent of work trips by auto and transit. An exponent value of 2.0 is
used for work travel. Median income is $24,000 per year.

Table 1: Travel Data Between Two Zones, S and D

Auto Transit
Distance 16 km 13 km
Cost per km $0.09 $0.06
Excess Time 5 min 8 min
Parking Cost $ 1.50 ( or 0.75/trip) -----
Speed 48 km/h 32 km/h
MODAL SPLIT