PROBABILITY
12 MAI SL/HL
INTRODUCTION
• What is probability…?
… how likely something to happen
• What do you know/remember about probability?
INTRODUCTION
• What is probability…?
… how likely something to happen
For example:
- The weather forecasting
- Guessing which team will win in a football tournament
- Guessing am I going to pass Primary Mathematics 2?
- .. And so on?
INTRODUCTION
• When it comes to how likely, it comes as well to how to
measure the likelihood?
INTRODUCTION
• The Likelihood of an event happening
Or somehow, we use
- Percentage
- Fraction
Introduction
• The Sample/Sample Space
..all the possible outcomes
Example:
The sample of rolling a dice is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• The Events
..all the desired outcomes
Example:
When rolling a dice, the event we want to come up with is even
numbers, then the event outcomes are {2, 4, 6}
𝑛( 𝐴 )
𝑃 ( 𝐴) =
𝑛 (𝑆)
Single Event
′
Probability
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =1− 𝑃(𝐴)
AND
Compound
Event
OR
Single Event
The probability of an event is:
In which,
the probability of event A
the number of the desired outcomes of event A
the number of all possible outcomes
1. A dice is tossed once. Find the probability that the
number will show up is more than 1!
2. In a box of 4 red marbles, 5 green, and 6 blue, a
marble is drawn at random, find the probability of
drawing:
1. A red
2. A blue
3. From a deck of card, a card is drawn at random. Find
the probability of having:
a. An ace
b. A red
c. A heart
Single Event
For example:
The probability of occurring Tails when tossing a coin is..
occurring Tails when tossing a coin
{tails, head} = 2
tail = 1
So, OR OR
Single Event
For example:
A marble is randomly selected from a box containing 5 green,
3 red, and 7 blue marbles. The probability of picking up:
a. A red
b. A green
c. A black
Single Event
For example:
;;
a. A red
b. A green
c. A black
Single Event
For example:
A card is randomly selected from a deck of card. The probability of
selecting:
a. A queen
b. A prime card
Single Event
For example:
a. A queen
b. A prime card
Single Event
• Complementary Events
For example:
An ordinary 6-sided die is rolled once. Determine the chance of:
a. Getting a 6
b. Getting a 1 or 2
c. Not getting a 6
d. Not getting a 1 or 2
Single Event
a. Getting a 6
, so
b. Getting a 1 or 2
, so
c. Not getting a 6
d. Not getting a 1 or 2
Single Event
• Complementary Events
If A is an event, then A’ is the complementary event of A,
then
OR
In words:
Compound Events
• Multiplication Event (AND)
• Addition Event (OR)
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent Event
… events where the occurrence of one of the event does not
affect the occurrence of the other event.
For Example: Box X contains 2 blue and 2 green balls and Box
Y contains 3 red and 1 white ball. A ball is randomly selected
from each of the boxes. Determine the probability of getting
“a blue ball from X and a red ball from Y”
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent Event
The two events “a blue ball from X and a red ball from Y” are
independent event.
In general:
If A and B are independent events then:
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent Event
This rule can be extended for any numbers of independent events.
For example:
If A, B, and C are all independent events, then:
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent Event
For example: Box X contains 2 blue and 2 green balls and Box Y
contains 3 red and 1 white ball. A ball is randomly selected from
each of the boxes. Determine the probability of getting “a blue ball
from X and a red ball from Y”!
Answer:
, so
, so
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent Event
For example: A coin is tossed 3 times. Determine the probability of
getting the following sequences of results:
a. head, then head, then head
b. Tail, then head, then tail
Answer:
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Dependent Event
Two or more events are dependent if they are not independent.
Dependent events are evens where he occurrence of one of the events
does affect the occurrence of the other event.
If A and B are dependent events then:
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Dependent Event
For Example: A box contains 4 red and 2 yellow tickets. Two tickets are
randomly selected one by one from the box without replacement.
Find the probability that:
a. Both are red
b. The first is red and the second is yellow
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Dependent Event
a. Both are red
P(red and red) =
b. The first is red and the second is yellow
P(red and yellow) =
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent and Dependent Event using Tree Diagram
Example:
Box X contains 2 blue and 2 green balls and Box Y contains 3 red and 1
white ball. A ball is randomly selected from each of the boxes.
Determine the probability of getting “a blue ball from X and a red ball
from Y”!
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent and Dependent Event using Tree Diagram
Example:
A coin is tossed 3 times. Determine the probability of getting the
following sequences of results:
a. head, then head, then head
b. Tail, then head, then tail
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent and Dependent Event using Tree Diagram
Example:
A box contains 4 red and 2 yellow tickets. Two tickets are randomly
selected one by one from the box without replacement. Find the
probability that:
a. Both are red
b. The first is red and the second is yellow
Multiplication Event (AND)
• Independent and Dependent Event using Tree Diagram
Example:
A box containing 5 red and 3 blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn
simultaneously from the bag. Determine the probability that:
a. The second marble selected is blue;
b. At least one is red
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
Example: If A is the set of all factors of 36 and B is the set of all
factors of 54, find:
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
In a class of 30 students, 19 study Physics, 17 study Chemistry,
and 15 study both of these subjects. How many students study:
a. At least one of the subject;
b. Physics only;
c. only one subject;
d. Neither both subject
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
In a class of 30 students, 19 study Physics, 17 study Chemistry,
and 15 study both of these subjects. Find the probability of
students who study:
a. At least one of the subject;
b. Physics only;
c. only one subject;
d. Neither both subject
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
A survey of 85 students asked them about the subjects they liked to study. Thirty
five students liked math, 37 liked history, and 26 liked physics. Twenty liked math
and history, 14 liked math and physics, and 3 liked history and physics. Two
students liked all three subjects.
A. How many of these students like math or physics?
B. How many of these students didn’t like any of the three subjects?
C. How many of these students liked math and history but not physics?
Laws of Probability
• Sets and Venn Diagrams
A survey of 85 students asked them about the subjects they
liked to study. Thirty five students liked math, 37 liked history,
and 26 liked physics. Twenty liked math and history, 14 liked
math and physics, and 3 liked history and physics. Two students
liked all three subjects. Find the probability of the students who:
A. Liked math or physics?
B. Didn’t like any of the three subjects?
C. Liked math and history but not physics?
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
The addition law applies when the two or more events have
intersection/similarities.
For two events A and B,
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
For example: If A is the set of all natural numbers less or equal
to 10 and B is the set of all primes less than 10, what is
Answer:
,,
,
If but the reality , there is the difference between them, which
is “1”. This “1” is the intersection between A and B, which is {2}.
Thus the formula, of
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
Since, , then
Thus for two events A and B,
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
For Example: A dice is rolled once. What is the probability of getting
an even or prime?
Answer:
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
For Example: A card is selected from a deck of card. What is the
probability of selecting a Red or Queen?
Answer:
Laws of Probability
• The Addition Law
For Example: A card is selected from a deck of card. What is the
probability of selecting a Red or Queen?
Answer:
Laws of Probability
• Mutually Exclusive Events
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then and so the addition
law becomes
Laws of Probability
• Mutually Exclusive Events
For example: A box of chocolates contains 6 with hard centres (H)
and 12 with soft centres (S).
a. Are the events H and S mutually exclusive?
b. Find:
i. P(H)
ii. P(S)
Laws of Probability
• Mutually Exclusive Events
For example: Two dices are thrown together. What is the probability
of getting the sum of 5 or 10?
Conditional Probability
A student selects a letter from the word MATHEMATICS.
What is the probability that he selects letter A?
What if, we are then told that he chooses a vowel. Will it change
the value of probability for him to choose letter A?
Ofc, as now instead of , it will be
Conditional Probability
Conditional =
• to describe a probability that is dependent on some additional
information given about an outcome or event
Conditional Probability
A student selects a letter from the word MATHEMATICS.
What is the probability that he selects letter A?
What if, we are then told that he chooses a vowel. Will it change
the value of probability for him to choose letter A?
Ofc, as now instead of , it will be
P(selects letter A, given that he selects a vowel) = ½
Conditional Probability
Conditional =
• to describe a probability that is dependent on some additional
information given about an outcome or event
• Using the symbol ǀ to mean given that
• = probability that A occurs, given that B occurs
Conditional Probability
Conditional =
• to describe a probability that is dependent on some additional
information given about an outcome or event
• Using the symbol ǀ to mean given that
• = probability that A occurs, given that B occurs
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Expectation Frequency
𝐹 h ( 𝐸 )=𝑁 ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐸)
Thank You