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Capital Investment Risk Analysis Guide

This document provides an overview of concepts related to long-term decision analysis and capital investments including risk analysis. It discusses stages of project appraisal, types of project risk such as stand-alone risk and market risk, and techniques for risk analysis including sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. The objectives are to familiarize students with project appraisal and impart skills in comprehensive project evaluation.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views12 pages

Capital Investment Risk Analysis Guide

This document provides an overview of concepts related to long-term decision analysis and capital investments including risk analysis. It discusses stages of project appraisal, types of project risk such as stand-alone risk and market risk, and techniques for risk analysis including sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. The objectives are to familiarize students with project appraisal and impart skills in comprehensive project evaluation.
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Session - 4

Long-term decision analysis; Capital investments (Risk analysis)


Session objectives To familiarize students with the stages of project (capital investment) appraisal and management; To provide them with knowledge on deeper aspects of project appraisal; To impart the skill of conducting a comprehensive project appraisal exercise.

A few salient concepts and measures Risk: The chance that some unfavorable event will occur; Probability distribution: A listing of all possible outcomes, or events, with a probability (chance of occurrence) assigned to each outcome; Expected rate of return: The rate of return expected to be realized from an investment; the mean value of the probability distribution of possible results.

Standard deviation (): A statistical measurement of the variability of a set of observations. Coefficient of variation: Standardized measure of the risk per unit of return; calculated as the standard deviation divided by the expected return. Risk aversion: A dislike for risk. Risk averse investors have higher required rates of return for higher risk investments.

Performance of A vs. B under conditions of risk


State of economy Boom Normal Recession Mean Standard deviation Coefficient of variation Prob. 0.3 0.4 0.3 15 Rate of return Firm A (%) 100 15 -70 15 65.84 4.39 Rate of return Firm B (%) 20 15 10 15 3.87 0.26

Types of project risk


Stand alone risk: the risk an asset would have if it were a firms only asset; it is measured by the variability of the assets expected returns. Within-firm risk: Risk not considering the effects of stockholders diversification; it is measured by a projects effect on the firms earnings variability. Market, or beta, risk: That part of a projects risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification; it is measured by the projects beta coefficient.

Stand-alone risk
Easier to compute than within firm risk or market risk; It is generally a good proxy for hard to measure market risk; In firms much time is spent to compute the stand alone risk.

Assessment of stand-alone risk Sensitivity analysis


A risk analysis technique in which key variables are changed and the resulting changes in the NPV and the rate of return are observed. Strengths: (a) Easy to perform and explain; (b) Focuses on critical variables. Weaknesses: (a) Does not incorporate information on the possible magnitude of forecast errors; (b) Disregards within-firm risk and market risk.

Scenario analysis
A risk analysis technique in which bad and good sets of financial circumstances are compared with a most likely, or base case situation.

It certainly is an improvement on sensitivity analysis as, at least, three possible scenarios are considered. However, the world is much more complex and there are an innumerable number of possible scenarios to be considered.

Scenario analysis (cont.)


Worst case scenario: An analysis in which all of the input variables are set at their worst reasonably forecasted values; Best case scenario: An analysis in which all of the input variables are et at their worst reasonably forecasted values; Base case: An analysis in which all of the input variables are set at their most likely values.

Simulation analysis Monte Carlo simulation

A risk analysis technique in which probable future events are simulated on a computer, generating estimated rates of return and risk indices.

Monte Carlo simulation (cont.)


The computer chooses at random a value for each uncertain variable based on the variable's specified probability distribution; Assess cash flows and the projects NPV in the first run; Continue the process, say 500 times, and develop thereby the probability distribution. The method shows a range of possible outcomes along with their attached probabilities.

Self work
Revise knowledge on the basics of Capital Budgeting. Read Chapter 3 Part II Re-work the case McReath Corpoartion B Work an assortment of end of chapter exercises that matches with the above case

Common questions

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Sensitivity analysis involves changing key variables one at a time and observing the effect on a project's NPV and rate of return, focusing on critical variables and being easy to explain, but it does not account for the possible magnitude of forecast errors or within-firm and market risk. In contrast, scenario analysis compares different scenarios—including worst-case, best-case, and base-case—to address multiple variable changes simultaneously, providing a broader view of potential outcomes. However, scenario analysis can still be limited given the numerous possible real-world scenarios .

Scenario analysis would be preferred over sensitivity analysis in project risk appraisal when it is necessary to evaluate the outcome of simultaneous changes in multiple variables, providing a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes. This is particularly valuable when dealing with complex projects where multiple factors interact, as it considers bad, good, and base case scenarios, thereby giving a richer understanding of the range of possible impacts on project outcomes. It is beneficial in environments characterized by high uncertainty or interdependent variables .

Both Firm A and Firm B have the same mean rate of return of 15%. However, the standard deviation for Firm A is 65.84%, indicating a high level of variability and risk, while Firm B's standard deviation is significantly lower at 3.87%, suggesting more consistent returns. Based on the coefficient of variation, Firm B presents a more attractive investment due to its predictability and lower risk per unit of return, despite the same mean rate of return as Firm A, especially under varying economic conditions .

Stand-alone risk refers to the risk an asset would pose if it were the only asset held by a firm, measured by the variability of the asset's expected returns. In capital budgeting, it is primarily used to assess the riskiness of individual projects due to its ease of computation. Although it does not account for diversification effects, it serves as a proxy for harder-to-measure, market-related risks, providing a basis for comparing the risk levels of potential investments. This understanding can significantly influence the prioritization of projects and resource allocation towards those with more desirable risk-return profiles .

The beta coefficient is a measure of a project's market risk, reflecting its sensitivity to market movements that cannot be eliminated through diversification. It integrates with project risk analysis by quantifying the impact of market-wide changes on a project's returns, allowing investors and firms to assess the extent to which an investment reacts to market trends. This understanding helps allocate appropriate investment resources and align project risks with market conditions, facilitating strategic decision-making based on market volatility and the project's risk profile .

Monte Carlo simulation offers advantages over traditional project appraisal methods by providing a comprehensive risk assessment through simulation of probable future events. This method generates a probability distribution of possible outcomes by allowing for the random selection of values for uncertain variables, based on specified probability distributions. It considers a wide range of scenarios by performing numerous simulation runs, providing a visualized range of potential outcomes with their probabilities, thus accounting for uncertainty and helping decision-makers understand the risks and variability better .

Sensitivity analysis offers the strength of being easy to perform and explain while focusing attention on critical variables that could significantly affect a project's outcome. However, it has weaknesses, including the inability to incorporate information on the magnitude of possible forecast errors and the exclusion of within-firm and market risks, which may lead to an incomplete risk assessment if other influencing factors or scenarios are ignored .

Within-firm risk differs from stand-alone and market risk by focusing on a project's impact on a firm’s overall earning variability without considering stockholder diversification. Stand-alone risk measures the variability of an asset's return if it were the firm's only asset, while market risk or beta risk evaluates the non-diversifiable portion of total risk affected by market-wide factors. Each provides different insights: stand-alone risk is straightforward, market risk considers broader economic influences, and within-firm risk captures internal operational impacts, each relevant for comprehensive project analysis .

The coefficient of variation is considered a better measure of risk when comparing investment opportunities because it provides a standardized measure of risk per unit of return. By dividing the standard deviation by the expected return, it allows for a relative comparison of risks, making it more useful when the expected returns of the investments differ. This makes it easier to evaluate how much risk is taken for each unit of return, offering more insight than standard deviation alone .

Risk aversion refers to an investor's dislike for risk, causing them to demand a higher required rate of return for taking on more risky investments. Essentially, risk-averse investors assess investment opportunities by weighing potential returns against the level of risk involved and typically favor those with lower risk or demand higher returns as compensation for higher risk levels. This influences decision-making by prioritizing investments that best align with an individual or firm's risk-return profile and risk tolerance .

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