Hypothesis Testing
with One Sample
Copyright © 2015, 2012, and 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 1
Hypothesis Tests
Hypothesis test
• A process that uses sample statistics to test a claim
about the value of a population parameter.
• For example: An automobile manufacturer
advertises that its new hybrid car has a mean mileage
of 50 miles per gallon. To test this claim, a sample
would be taken. If the sample mean differs enough
from the advertised mean, you can decide that the
advertisement is false.
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Hypothesis Tests
Statistical hypothesis
• A statement, or claim, about a population parameter.
• Carefully state a pair of hypotheses
• one that represents the claim
• the other, its complement
• When one of these hypotheses is false, the other must
be true.
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Stating a Hypothesis
Null hypothesis Alternative hypothesis
• A statistical hypothesis • A statement of
that contains a statement inequality such as >, ,
of equality such as , =, or <.
or . • Must be true if H0 is
• Denoted H0 read “H false.
subzero” or “H naught.” • Denoted Ha read “H
sub-a.”
complementary
statements
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Stating a Hypothesis
• To write the null and alternative hypotheses, translate
the claim made about the population parameter from
a verbal statement to a mathematical statement.
• Then write its complement.
H0: μ ≤ k H0: μ ≥ k H0: μ = k
Ha: μ > k Ha: μ < k Ha: μ ≠ k
• Regardless of which pair of hypotheses you use, you
always assume μ = k and examine the sampling
distribution on the basis of this assumption.
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Example: Stating the Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Write the claim as a mathematical sentence. State the null and alternative
hypotheses and identify which represents the claim.
1. A school publicizes that the proportion of its students who are involved in at
least one extracurricular activity is 61%.
Solution:
H0: p = 0.61 Equality condition (Claim)
p ≠ 0.61 Complement of H0
Ha:
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Example: Stating the Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Write the claim as a mathematical sentence. State the null and alternative
hypotheses and identify which represents the claim.
3. A company advertises that the mean life of its furnaces is more than 18 years
Solution:
H : μ ≤ 18 years
0
Complement of Ha
μ > 18 years Inequality
Ha: (Claim)
condition
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Formulate Null and Alternative Hypotheses
We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American
colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative
hypotheses are:
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We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American
colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative
hypotheses are:
The null and alternative hypotheses are:
H0: μ = 2.0
Ha: μ ≠ 2.0
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Formulate Null and Alternative Hypotheses
We want to test whether the mean height of eighth graders is
66 inches. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the
correct symbol (=, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative
hypotheses.
a. H0: μ __ 66
b. Ha: μ __ 66
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Homework
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Answer
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Types of Errors
• No matter which hypothesis represents the claim, always begin
the hypothesis test assuming that the equality condition in the
null hypothesis is true.
• At the end of the test, one of two decisions will be made:
reject the null hypothesis
fail to reject the null hypothesis
• Because your decision is based on a sample, there is the
possibility of making the wrong decision.
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Possible Outcomes and Types of Errors
Actual Truth of H0
Decision H0 is true H0 is false
Do not reject H0 Correct Decision Type II Error (ß)
(α)
Reject H0 Type I Error(α) Correct Decision
• A type I error occurs if the null hypothesis is rejected
when it is true.
• A type II error occurs if the null hypothesis is not
rejected when it is false.
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Example: Identifying Type I and Type II
Errors
The USDA limit for salmonella contamination for
chicken is 20%. A meat inspector reports that the
chicken produced by a company exceeds the USDA
limit. You perform a hypothesis test to determine
whether the meat inspector’s claim is true. When will a
type I or type II error occur? Which is more serious?
(Source: United States Department of Agriculture)
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Solution: Identifying Type I and Type II
Errors
Let p represent the proportion of chicken that is
contaminated.
Hypotheses: H : p ≤ 0.2
0
p > 0.2 (Claim)
Ha:
Chicken meets Chicken exceeds
USDA limits. USDA limits.
H0: p ≤ 0.20 H0: p > 0.20
p
0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24
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Solution: Identifying Type I and Type II
Errors
Hypotheses: H0: p ≤ 0.2
Ha: p > 0.2 (Claim)
A type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
The actual proportion of contaminated chicken is less
than or equal to 0.2, but you decide to reject H0.
A type II error is failing to reject H0 when it is false.
The actual proportion of contaminated chicken is
greater than 0.2, but you do not reject H0.
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Solution: Identifying Type I and Type II
Errors
Hypotheses: H0: p ≤ 0.2
Ha: p > 0.2 (Claim)
• With a type I error, you might create a health scare
and hurt the sales of chicken producers who were
actually meeting the USDA limits.
• With a type II error, you could be allowing chicken
that exceeded the USDA contamination limit to be
sold to consumers.
• A type II error is more serious because it could result
in sickness or even death.
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Level of Significance
Level of significance
• Your maximum allowable probability of making a
type I error.
Denoted by , the lowercase Greek letter alpha.
• By setting the level of significance at a small value,
you are saying that you want the probability of
rejecting a true null hypothesis to be small.
• Commonly used levels of significance:
= 0.10 = 0.05 = 0.01
• P(type II error) = β (beta)
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Statistical Tests
• After stating the null and alternative hypotheses and
specifying the level of significance, a random sample
is taken from the population and sample statistics are
calculated.
• The statistic that is compared with the parameter in
the null hypothesis is called the test statistic.
Population Test statistic Standardized test
parameter statistic
μ x z ( σ known)
t ( σ unknown
p p̂ z
σ2 s2 χ2
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P-values
P-value (or probability value)
• The probability, if the null hypothesis is true, of
obtaining a sample statistic with a value as extreme or
more extreme than the one determined from the
sample data.
• Depends on the nature of the test.
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Nature of the Test
• Three types of hypothesis tests
left-tailed test
right-tailed test
two-tailed test
• The type of test depends on the region of the
sampling distribution that favors a rejection of H0.
• This region is indicated by the alternative hypothesis.
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Left-tailed Test
• The alternative hypothesis Ha contains the less-than
inequality symbol (<).
H0: μ k
Ha: μ < k
P is the area to
the left of the
test statistic.
z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
test
statistic
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Right-tailed Test
• The alternative hypothesis Ha contains the greater-
than inequality symbol (>).
H0: μ ≤ k
Ha: μ > k P is the
area to the
right of the
test statistic.
z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
test
statistic
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Two-tailed Test
• The alternative hypothesis Ha contains the not-equal-
to inequality symbol (≠). Each tail has an area of ½P.
H0: μ = k
Ha: μ k
P is twice the
P is twice the
area to the right
area to the left of
of the positive
the negative test
test statistic.
statistic.
z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
test statistic
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Example: Identifying The Nature of a Test
For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine whether the
hypothesis test is a left-tailed, right-tailed, or two-tailed test.
Sketch a normal sampling distribution and shade the area for
the P-value.
1. A school publicizes that the proportion of its students who
are involved in at least one extracurricular activity is 61%.
Solution:
H0: p = 0.61
Ha: p ≠ 0.61
Two-tailed test
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Example: Identifying The Nature of a Test
For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine
whether the hypothesis test is a left-tailed, right-tailed,
or two-tailed test. Sketch a normal sampling distribution
and shade the area for the P-value.
2. A car dealership announces that the mean time for an
oil change is less than 15 minutes.
Solution:
H0: μ ≥ 15 min P-value
area
Ha: μ < 15 min
z
-z 0
Left-tailed test
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Example: Identifying The Nature of a Test
For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine
whether the hypothesis test is a left-tailed, right-tailed,
or two-tailed test. Sketch a normal sampling distribution
and shade the area for the P-value.
3. A company advertises that the mean life of its
furnaces is more than 18 years.
Solution:
P-value
H0: μ ≤ 18 yr area
Ha: μ > 18 yr
z
z 0
Right-tailed test
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Making a Decision
Decision Rule Based on P-value
• Compare the P-value with .
If P , then reject H0.
If P > , then fail to reject H0.
Claim
Decision Claim is H0 Claim is Ha
There is enough evidence to There is enough evidence to
Reject H0 reject the claim support the claim
There is not enough evidence There is not enough evidence
Fail to reject H0 to reject the claim to support the claim
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