Learning Curves
7S-1
Learning Curves
• Learning curve
– The time required to perform a task decreases with
increasing repetitions
– The degree of improvement is a function of the task
being done
• Short, routine tasks will show modest improvement
relatively quickly
• Longer, more complex tasks will show improvement
over a longer interval
7S-2
Learning
7S-3
Worker Learning Curves
Time/cycles
A (underqualified)
B (average)
Standard time
C (overqualified)
One week Training time
7S-4
The Learning Effect
• The learning effect is attributed to a variety of factors:
– Worker learning
– Preproduction factors
• Tooling and equipment selection
• Product design
• Methods analysis
• Effort expended prior to the start of work
– Changes made after production has begun
• Changes in work methods
• Changes in tooling and equipment
– Managerial factors
• Improvements in planning, scheduling, motivation, and control
But we will focus primarily on “worker learning”
7S-5
Applications of Learning Curves
• Manpower planning and scheduling
• Negotiated purchasing
• Pricing new products
• Budgeting, purchasing, and inventory
planning
• Capacity Planning
7S-6
Interesting Characteristics of Learning
• The learning effect is predictable
– The learning percentage is constant
• Every doubling of repetitions results in a
constant percentage decrease in the time per
repetition
– Typical decreases range from 10 to 20 percent
7S-7
Learning Illustrated
• Each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit for that
amount should be approximately equal to the previous time
multiplied by the learning percentage.
• If the first unit of a process took 100 hours and the learning rate is
90%:
Unit Unit Time (hours)
1 = 100
2 .90(100)= 90
4 .90(90)= 81
8 .90(81)= 72.9
16 .90(72.9)= 65.61
32 .90(65.61)= 59.049
7S-8
Unit Times: Formula Approach
Tn = T1 × n b
where
Tn = Time for nth unit
T1 = Time for first unit
ln r
b=
ln 2
r = learning rate percentage
ln stands for the natural logarithm
7S-9
Example: Formula Approach
• If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit took
100 hours to complete, how long would it take to
complete the 25th unit?
ln .90
T25 = 100 × 25 ln 2
= 100 × 25−.15200
= 61.3068 hours
7S-10
Theory of the Learning Curve
• Humans increase their productivity through learning
• Each time output doubles, the labor hours decrease
by a fixed percentage of their previous value.
• Most appropriate for complex tasks with high labor
content.
• Highly automated processes offer little opportunity
for learning
7S-11
Underlying Premise
• Every time the quantity doubles the time to
complete the next unit will decrease by a
constant ratio that we call Alpha.
• Alpha = Coefficient of Learning
7S-12
Calculating Alpha
Unit # Hours Ratios
1 100 1 : 2 => .84
2 84 2 : 4 => .73
3 73 3 : 6 => .60
4 61
5 53
6 44
7S-13
7S-14
Two Values to Consider
(This is a single value)
1. Time/Cost to complete the nth unit
2. Time/Cost to complete units 1 => n
(This is a cumulative value)
7S-15
Unit Times: Learning Factor Approach
• The learning factor approach uses a table that
shows two things for selected learning
percentages:
– Unit value for the number of repetitions (unit number)
Tn = T1 × Unit time factor
– Cumulative value, which enables us to compute the total
time required to complete a given number of units.
∑T n = T1 × Total time factor
7S-16
L.C. Unit Values
7S-17
Cumulative Values of L.C.
7S-18
Example: Learning Factor Approach
• If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit took
100 hours to complete, how long would it take to
complete the 25th unit?
T25 = 100 × .613
= 61.3 hours
• How long would it take to complete the first 25
units?
∑T 25 = 100 × 17.713
= 1,771.3 hours
7S-19
Example #1
Unit Unit $
1 76.00 1:2 0.792
2 60.20 2:4 0.807
3 53.40 3:6 0.788
4 48.60 4:8 0.790
5 45.30 5:10 0.806
6 42.10
7 40.60
8 38.40
9 37.50
10 36.50
1. What is the learning coefficient α ?
2. What is the cost to complete the 16th unit?
3. What is the average cost to complete 14 units?
7S-20
Learning Curve Example #2
Unit # Cost Ratios
1 $64 1 : 2 =>
2 53 2 : 4 =>
3 49 3 : 6 =>
4 45 4 : 8 =>
5 43 5 : 10 =>
6 42
7 41 Time to complete unit #18
8 39
9 38 Average Time to build 20 units?
10 37
7S-21
Learning Curve Example #3
Unit # Hours Ratios
1 122 1 : 2 =>
2 111 2 : 4 =>
3 105 3 : 6 =>
4 99 4 : 8 =>
5 97 5 : 10 =>
6 95
7 92 Time to complete # 14 unit?
8 89
9 88 Average Time to build 16 units?
10 87
7S-22
Learning Curve Example #3a
Using the information from Example #3, how would you
prepare a proposal for 18 units if the hourly rate is $9.45
and the material cost is $26.00 per unit??
Unit $ Total $
Average cost for 18 units = _________ _________
Material cost = ………………. ________ _________
Total Direct Cost ……………. ________ _________
Profit & GS&A ………………………………….. _________
Total Bid Price ………………………………… _________
7S-23
Some More Things to Ponder???
1. How do I know the cost of the first unit?
2. How does the learning curve help me to
run my business?
3. When would the learning curve be no help?
4. How does L.C. help me to price a new
product?
7S-24
Cautions and Criticisms
1. Learning rates may differ from organization to organization and by
type of work
– Base learning rates on empirical studies rather than assumptions where
possible
1. Projections based on learning curves should be regarded as
approximations of actual times
2. Because time estimates are based on the first unit, care should be
taken to ensure that the time is valid
3. It is possible that at some point the curve might level off or even
tip upward
7S-25
Cautions and Criticisms
5. Some of the improvements may be more apparent
than real: improvements in times may be caused by
increases in indirect labor costs
6. In mass production situations, learning curves may be
of initial use in predicting how long it will take before
the process stabilizes
7S-26
Cautions and Criticisms
7. Users of learning curves fail to include carryover
effects from previous experiences
8. Shorter product life cycles, flexible manufacturing, and
cross-functional workers can affect the ways in which
learning curves may be applied
7S-27