Russia's Demographic Transition Stages
Uploaded by
MarkRussia's Demographic Transition Stages
Uploaded by
MarkBasic Demography
Describe global population distribution
Examine causes and consequences of population
change
To understand the Malthusian argument
To describe demographic and economic
characteristics of a population
To understand the Demographic Transition
To describe the baby boom
Understanding economic migration
World population growth is slowing
Still adding ca. 80 million per year
Most in developing countries
Some countries are losing population (Russia,
E. Europe, coming in Japan)
Forces affecting population change
∆P = BR – DR + I – O or
∆P = NGR +NMR
Assumed that human populations would
continue to grow geometrically
And assumed that food production would grow
arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal
returns (or less than arithmetically)
arithmetic
Output
Diminishing returns
Inputs
• Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production
• Failed to see the opening of new lands
(especially in the new world)
• Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates
Based on West European & N. Am. History
Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and
unstable birth & death rates, population
growth rate slow, importance of children, low
life expectancy
Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth
rates, falling death rate, high population
growth
Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death
rate, falling birth rate, high population growth
Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and
death rates, low population growth
Stage 1 – Poor Health Care
Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with
better diet and improvements in health care
(Figure 3.18)
Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2
Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases,
more from social malaise (Figures 3.21 and
3.22). Some countries below ZPG
Fertility is socially constructed, not taken
for granted
Population does not grow uncontrollably,
but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate
as birth and death rates fall
However, absolute population growth is still
large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the
large base (current 6+ billion)
Total future population depends on fertility
rate trends in less developed regions
(Figure 3.28)
Based on Western societies (Europe, North
America, Japan)
Not inevitable that there will be a fall in
fertility rates in less developed countries
Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates
We cannot predict the length of time it will
take these countries to move from Stages 2
and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)