MEKELLE UNINVERSITY

ETHIOPIAN INSTITUITE OF TECHONOLOGY -

MEKELLE
SCHOOL OF CIVIL ENGINERING

WAT E R S U P P LY A N D U R B A N D R A I N A G E ( C E N G - 3 1 7 1 )
PRE-REQUISITE – ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY
I N S T R U C TO R – G / WA H I D A D H A N A
MARCH 2019

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CHAPTER ONE
DEMAND FOR WATER AND
METHOD OF POPULATION
FORECASTING

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Course Content
• Quantity of Water

• Sources of Water Supply

• Collection and Distribution of Water

• Wastewater and Strom Water Collection System

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INTRODUCTION
• Basic requirements for safe water
– Drinking: 2–3 liters/day
– Minimum acceptable standard for living (WHO)
– 20–50 liters/capita/day for cooking and basic hygiene
• Access to water-supply services is defined as
the availability of at least 20 liters per person
per day from an "improved" source within 1
kilometer of the user's dwelling.

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 INTRODUCTION
•  The water demand estimation involves:
The per capita water demand
The determination of people who will be served
Analysis of the factors that may operate to affect consumption
• Per capita water demand (l/c/d), is the amount of water
consumed by one person in one day.

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 Types of Water Demand
Water Demand
Components

Losses and
Domestics Non domestic Fire fighting
leakage

Commercial

Industrial

Institutional

Agricultural

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 Types of Water Demand
Domestic Demand:- water required for ;
For drinking, food preparation, washing, cleaning, bathing and other miscellaneous domestic
purposes.
 Calculated based on per capita water demand for each mode of service;
 Should be adjusted for climate & socio-economic conditions
Commercial and institutional: water required for ;
Road washing (used in big cities), stores, large markets, Ornamental purpose, washing
public gardens and, trees on main roads, hotels, shopping centers , health centers, school
and cinema house etc.

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Types of Water Demand
Industrial demand: water required supplied for factories
The amount of water is depend upon the type of industry in the city.
Paper mills, textile mills, breweries, sugar mills, steel mills, leather mills,
fertilizer mills, etc
Fire fighting;
 this is water required for fighting fire breakout.
Losses and Waste/Un-accounted for water is due to:
meter and pump slippage, Unauthorized water connections
and Leaks in mains

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 Factors Affecting Consumption
• Size of city • System of supply; continuous supply
• Presence of Industries and Commerce and intermittent supply.
• Quality of the water • Efficiency of the water works
• Its price administration
• Climatic Condition • System of sanitation
• Characteristics of the Population • Fire Demand

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 Variation of Rate of Demand
The water demand varies from season to season, day to day, even hour to hour.

oSeasonal variation: High in hot season and less in cold season.

oDaily variation; high during holidays, Saturday, Sundays.
oHourly variation; high in morning, evening, launch time.

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 DESIGN PERIOD
 The number of years for which the designs of water works have been done.
 This design period should neither be too short or too long in order to balance
between the economy & proper function.
Mostly water works are designed for design period of 20 – 30 years.
Factors to be considered during design period selection:
 Fund
 The life of the material used in project (pipes, structural materials )
 Anticipated expansion of the town
 The rate of interest on the loan taken

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Population Forecasting
Methods of population forecasting
1. Arithmetical increase method
2. Geometrical increase method
3. Incremental increase method
4. Decreasing rate method
5. Logistic Curve method
6. Simple graphical method
7. Master plan method
8. CSA method (Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency Method)

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 Population Forecasting
1.  Arithmetical increase method (applicable for large and old city)
 This method is based on the assumption that the population is increasing at a constant
rate

Where = initial population (present population)

= population at indicates in the future
k = arithmetic increase
n = no of Decades /years

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 Population Forecasting
Example -1
1. The following data have been noted from the census department
Year 1940 1950 1960 1970
Population 8,000 12,000 17,000 22,500
Calculate the probable population in the year 1980, 1990 and 2000
Solution: year population population increase(k)
1940 8000
1950 12000 4000
1960 17000 5000
1970 22500 5500
total 14500
average increase,k 4833.333333

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Population Forecasting
 
Therefore, K = 4833.33/decade

Or

Similarly calculate for 1990 and 2000

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 Population Forecasting
 
2. Geometrical increase method
This method assume the percentage increase in population from decade to decade remains constant.

 The present population is Po and average percentage growth is k, the population at the end of n decade

will be:

P1 = Po + K Po = Po (1 + K)

P2 = P1 (1 + K) = Po (1 + K)(1 + K)

P3 = P2 (1 + K) = Po (1 + K) (1 + K) (1 + K) )

then, Pn= Po (1+K) n

Where K = percentage (geometric) increase

This method is mostly applicable for growing towns and cities having vast scope of expansion.

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 Population Forecasting
Example:
1. Forecast the population of example 1 by means of geometrical increase method.
year population population increase(k) %age increase
1940 8000
1950 12000 4000 50
1960 17000 5000 41.66666667
1970 22500 5500 32.35294118
total 14500 124.0196078
average %age increase,k 41.33986928

• Therefore K = 41.34%
• P 1980= 22500 (1+41.34%) 1 = 31802

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 Population Forecasting
3.  Incremental Increase method: This method is
improvement over the above two methods.
• The average increase in the population is determined by the arithmetical method and to
this is added the average of the net incremental increase once for each future decade.
• In this method, a progressive increasing or decreasing rate rather than constant rate is
adopted.

Where k is average population increase

k’ is net incremental increase
1. Example
Forecast the population of Example 1 by mean of incremental increase method.
Solution:

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 Population Forecasting
year population population increase(k) incremental increase
1940 8000
1950 12000 4000
1960 17000 5000 1000
1970 22500 5500 500
Total 14500 1500
average increase,k 4833.333333 750

P1980 = 22500+1*(4833+750) 28083

P1990
P2000

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 Population Forecasting
4. Decreasing rate method
• This technique, assume the city has some limiting saturation population, and that its rate of
growth is a function of its population deficit:
• In this method, the average decrease in the percentage increase is worked out and is then
subtracted from the latest percentage increase for each successive decades.
• This method is applicable to average size cities growing under normal condition.
Example
1. Solve example 1, by using decrease rate of growth method.
Solution:

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 Population Forecasting
year population population increase(k) %age increase decrease in % increase
1940 8000
1950 12000 4000 50
1960 17000 5000 41.66666667 8.333333333
1970 22500 5500 32.35294118 9.31372549
total 14500 124.0196078 17.64705882
average %age increase,k 41.33986928 8.823529412

P1980 = 22500+(32.35%-8.82%)*22500 = 27810

P1990 = 27810+(23.6%-8.82%)*27810

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 Population Forecasting
5. Logistic curve method
It is assumed that the plot of population versus time, under normal condition gives S
shaped curve. According to P.F. Verhulst, the logistic curve can be represented by the
equation
Ps
P 
1  m log e 1 ( nt )

 Where Ps = Saturation population

Po = Population at starting point
P = Population at any time t from the starting point

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 Population Forecasting
   Taking three points from the range of census population data at equal time intervals (t 1,
P1), (t2, P2) and (t3, P3)
Where t2 = t1 +t, t3 = t2 +t

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 Population Forecasting
Example
 
5. The following is the population of a city as noted from the census
department:
Year: 1950 1960 1970
Population: 35,000 78,000 115,000
Determine
a. the saturation population
b. the expected population in 1980 & the equation of logistic curve
Solution

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 Population Forecasting
 

  𝑝 𝑠 − 𝑝 𝑜 138271 − 35000
𝑏𝑢𝑡 , 𝑚 = = =2.95
𝑝𝑜 35000

-0.146 Therefore

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 Population Forecasting
6. Simple graphical method
In this method the population curve (the population vs. year) are correctly plotted to a suitable
scale on the graph, then the curve is smoothly extended to forecast the future population.

Example:
6. The population in the past decays is given as follows
Year: 1930 1940 1950 1960
Population: 9,000 13,000 17,000 23,000
Forecast the probable population number by using simple graphical method?

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 Population Forecasting
year 1930 1940 1950 1960
pop. 9000 13000 17000 23000

25000

20000
populati on

15000

10000

5000

0
1930 1940 1950 1960
year

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 Population Forecasting
year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
pop. 9000 13000 17000 23000

40000
35000
30000
p op u lati on

29400
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year

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 Population Forecasting
7. Master plan method
In this method, the master plan of the city or town is used to determine the future
expected population.
The population densities for various zones (residential, commercial, industrial and
other zones) of the town are fixed and hence the future population of the city when
fully developed can easily be worked out.
8. Method used by Ethiopians statistic Authority

Where, Pn = population at n decades or years

Po = initial population
n = decade or year
09/03/2020 k = growth rate in percentage
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 Population Forecasting
Exercise:
1. The population in the past years is given as follows
Year: 1994 1999 2007 2014
Population: 20,000 28,000 45,000 82,000
What is the probable population number after 20 years, (use arithmetic increase
method )
If per capita water demand of this town is 50liter per day,
2. Calculate the total demand in 2034
3. Non domestic demand
4. Firefighting demand

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example
Determine the total water consumptions of a town having total
population of 74843 in 2007 and population growth rate is given below
in table and the design period is 21year.

year Growth rate

2006-2010 4.60%
2011-2015 4.30%
2016-2020 4.10%
2021-2025 3.90%

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 solution
Step-1 :- Population forecasting Step-2 :- Town categories
year Growth ‘n’ in Population Category
rate(%) year Over 250,000 1
,k 80,000- 250,000 2
2007 4.6% 00 74843 50,000 -80,000 3
2007 4.6% 74843 30,000 -50,000 4
2010
2010 4.6%
4.6% 33 85918
85918
2013 4.3% 66 96872 20,000 -30,000 5
2013 4.3% 96872 10,000 -20,000 6
2015 4.3% 8 105572
2015 4.3% 8 105572 5,000 -10,000 7
2020 4.1% 13 127535
2020 4.1% 13 127535 2,000 -5,000 8
2025 3.9% 18 151017
2025
2030 3.9%
3.7% 18
23 151017
175281 1,000 -2,000 9
2030
2035 3.7%
3.5% 23
28 175281
199416 Less than 1,000 10
2035
2040 3.5%
3.4% 28
33 199416
229842
2040 3.4% 33 229842

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population percentage distribution by mode of service (Category 2)

connection
type 2007 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
House 5.40% 5.00% 5.42% 5.70% 6.40% 7.30% 8.20% 8.20% 8.70%
Yard 20.20% 21.70% 23.44% 24.60% 27.90% 31.60% 35.80% 36.61% 39.15%
yard shared 23.50% 25.30% 27.34% 28.70% 32.40% 36.70% 41.60% 42.53% 45.46%
public tap 48.70% 45.40% 41.56% 39.00% 31.70% 23.40% 13.40% 11.91% 6.21%
un-served 2.80% 2.50% 2.20% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00% 0.56% 0.23%
nondomestic 38.00% 35.00% 32.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 27.00% 25.71%
unaccounted 33.50% 31.80% 31.14% 30.70% 29.20% 27.50% 26.90% 25.77% 24.69%

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 Step-3:- population number distribution by mode of service

House 4042 4296 5250 6018 8162 11024 14373 16352 19995
Yard 15118 18644 22707 25971 35582 47721 62751 73015 89988
yard shared 17588 21737 26485 30299 41321 55423 72917 84809 104493
public tap 36449 39007 40260 41173 40429 35338 23488 23759 14270
un-served 2096 2148 2131 2111 1913 1510 1753 1111 534

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 Per capita consumption[l/cap/day] for category 2
connection 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
type
house 115 119.8 123 130 138 138 138 138
connection
yard
32 33.2 34 36 38 38 38 38
connection
yard shared 23 24.2 25 26 28 28 28 28
public tap 17 17.6 18 19 21 21 21 21

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Step-4:- Average Domestic water demands

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 Step-5:- PROJECTION OF DOMESTIC DEMAND, in
(m3/d)
connection
type 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
HS 494 629 740 1061 1521 1983 2257 2759
HC 597 754 883 1281 1813 2385 2775 3420
YS 500 641 757 1074 1552 2042 2375 2926
PT 663 709 741 768 742 493 499 300
ADD 2254 2732 3122 4185 5629 6903 7905 9404

ADD=Average Domestic Demand

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 Step-6:- ADJUSTMENT FOR DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND
(m3/day)

Projected DD=DDO*climatic factor*socio economic factor

Socio-economic factor

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 ADJUSTMENT FOR DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND (m3/day)

  2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ADD 2254 2732 3122 4185 5629 6903 7905 9404

climate factor 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
socio-
economic
factor 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

AWD 2479 3006 3434 4603 6192 7593 8695 10345

Non-domestic 868 962 1030 1381 1857 2278 2348 2660

Water loss 788 936 1054 1344 1703 2043 2241 2554
TWD 4135 4903 5518 7328 9752 11914 13284 15559
MDF 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
MDD 5169 6129 6898 9160 12190 14892 16605 19448
PHF 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
PHD 7857 9316 10485 13923 18528 22636 25239 29561

TWD= Total Adjusted Water Demand

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