U.S.
Congress, Presidency and the Courts
The Presidential Election Process
September 17, 2019
J. BRYAN COLE
POLS 1337
Overview and Candidates
Selecting the U.S. President
Remember:
Article II of the Constitution only talks about the Electoral College
The U.S. presidency hasn’t always been the leader of the free world
The rest of the process has evolved gradually since then, particularly
during the 20th century
Do you think that this process is adequate for selecting the leader of
the free world?
As of now, many Democrats have declared their intention to seek thei
r party’s nomination for President; some have already dropped out!
These Democrats are Running for President (click on their names to
access their websites)
Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Steve Bullock
Pete Buttigieg
Julian Castro
Bill De Blasio
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Amy Klobuchar
Wayne Messam
Seth Moulton
Richard Ojeda
Beto O'Rourke
Tim Ryan
Bernie Sanders
Eric Swalwell
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang
Currently, Democratic
candidates are
campaigning and debating
for their political party’s
nomination to challenge
Donald Trump next year
The Democratic National
Committee sponsors these
debates and sets the
eligibility guidelines
This article contains basic
information about the upc
oming debate
Democratic Debate, Sept. 12, 2019
We will watch a portion of
this debate next week!
Lastly, as the current
President, Donald
Trump is the race’s
incumbent
This website includes inf
o about campaign rallies
This website contains mo
re specific information a
bout the issues
President Trump Seeks A Second
Term
Republican Challengers
President Trump faces
several challengers from
within his own party:
Former Congressman Joe
Walsh
Former Massachusetts Go
vernor Bill Weld
Likewise
, former Congressman and
SC Governor Mark Sanfor
d just threw his hat in the
ring
The Presidential Nomination
Process
History of the Nomination Process
Since the Progressive Era (early
20th century), candidates for
public office have to win two
elections:
Primaries or caucuses, then
General elections
Initially, these were limited to
state and local contests, but
spread to presidential contests
Primaries and caucuses are to
select delegates to attend the
parties’ national conventions
Caucuses and Primaries
Primaries Caucuses
People go to vote for People go to meetings
delegates to attend the to adopt party
conventions platforms and select
candidates
Secret ballots
No secrecy
A short, simple process
Long process
General Remarks about the Primaries/Caucuses
Primaries and caucuses occur sequentially, i.e. different states hol
d them at different times
Parties, including state level organizations, have lots of control
over how these are conducted and how the delegates are allocated:
Winner-take-all or
Proportional representation (Democrats do this nationwide; Republicans did so
for at least the first two weeks of March 2016)
Republican party organizations in Kansas, Nevada, and South Carolina have an
nounced that they won't hold primaries/caucuses, instead giving all their delega
tes to President Trump
Everything You Need to Know about How the Presidential Primary
Works, from The Washington Post, May 12, 2015.
Who Are the Delegates? What Do They Do?
In the primaries and caucuses, people are technically voting for
delegates, not the candidates themselves
Delegates are pledged to support one candidate at the national
conventions
But they can change their minds if their chosen candidate drops out
Number of delegates:
Democrats have 4,765 delegates, including 714 superdelegtes (see next slide)
Republicans have 2,472 delegates
What about Democratic Superdelegates?
At-large delegates (no one votes for them)
Became very controversial in 2008 and again in
2016
Bernie Sanders rips the superdelegate system, From
CNN.
In late 2018, the Democratic National Committee vot
ed to reduce the influence of superdelegates
1968 Democratic National Convention - Chicago
Eugene McCarthy had
won a large number of
primaries, but the
delegates nominated
Hubert Humphrey
McGovern-Fraser
Commission institutes
reforms which
(unintentionally) allowed
the Iowa Caucuses to gain
influence
Iowa Caucus Overview
Iowa has layered caucuses, so the delegates aren’t formally
selected until much later:
Initial contests in precincts
County caucuses
Congressional district caucuses
Statewide convention
McGovern-Fraser Commission opens up participation to
rank-and-file members and requires greater transparency in
delegate selection (which means that delegates can’t get
selected more than a year before the convention)
The 1976 Presidential Election and the Accident of the Iowa
Caucuses
A then-unknown
Southern governor
comes in 1st place in the
Iowa caucuses (28%),
though 37% were
uncommitted
The modern-day Iowa
caucus is born!
How Caucuses Work (and Generate Controversy)
Inside a Caucus: Iowa 2008
Turnout
Often about 6 percent; was a record 12 percent in 2008
What kinds of people vote in primaries?
Is Iowa representative of the nation as a whole?
These 2016 Republican Candidates Suspended Their Campaigns
Before Iowa
Rick Perry
Scott Walker
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Results of Recent Iowa Caucuses
Democrats Republicans
2008: Barack Obama 2008: Mike Huckabee
2012: Barack Obama 2012: Rick Santorum
(uncontested)
2016: Ted Cruz
2016: Bernie Sanders
Primaries
Off to New Hampshire!
More like traditional elections, but there are
sometimes restrictions concerning who is allowed to
participate
Types of primaries (next slide)
Who Gets to Vote in the Primaries?
Criticisms of Closed
Types of Primaries
Primaries
Open primaries: any registered voter
Bernie Sanders has rep
may vote in either primary (but not
both); notice opportunities for eatedly called for endin
strategic voting g closed primaries, Fro
Semi-open primaries (Texas): you
m The Daily Mail, May
can request a ballot for either party,
30, 2016.
but it will a matter of public record
Closed primaries: you have to be
Others are skeptical th
registered officially with a given at closed primaries hav
political party in order to vote in its e harmed Sanders, Fro
primary m Bill Scher, Real Clea
r Politics, May 2, 2016.
Results of Recent New Hampshire Primaries
Democrats Republicans
2008: Hillary Clinton 2008: John McCain
2012: Barack Obama 2012: Mitt Romney
(uncontested)
2016: Donald Trump
2016: Bernie Sanders
More Casualties!
After Iowa After New Hampshire
Mike Huckabee Chris Christie
Rand Paul Carly Fiorina
Rick Santorum Jim Gilmore
Jeb Bush (after South
Carolina)
Texas Presidential Primary
Held on March 1 as part of
Super Tuesday
Winners:
Hillary Clinton
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson dropped out
subsequently
Later: Rubio, Cruz, and
Kasich dropped out
Frontloading
Frontloading: moving caucuses and primaries up in
order for your state to have more say in who the
nominees will be
Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire are first
Now, both political parties have cracked down on this
practice
The General Election Campaign
The Conventions
Historically In Recent Years
Very great suspense Now, these events are just
formalities
Select the parties’ nominees
Gives each party a week in
Announcements of VP the spotlight
candidates and acceptance
speeches by both candidates Still feature acceptance
speeches and setting of
Setting party platforms party platforms
Party Platforms
Usually, their adoption is low-
key; in 2016, Sen. Sanders
worked aggressively to secure
certain statements in the
Democrats’ platform
What Sanders Won in 2016. Fro
m Slate, July 11, 2016.
Republican Platform
Democrat Platform
George W. Bush and Debates
“I had seen enough politics
to know you can’t really win
a debate. You can only lose
by saying something stupid
or looking tired or nervous…
I made my case confidently
and avoided any major
gaffes” (p. 54)
Bush commenting on his
1994 gubernatorial debate
with incumbent Ann
Richards
Debates in 2016
For each election, the
parties and candidates
must agree on the terms
of the debates
Highlights from the final
debate, October 19, 2016.
2016 Presidential Debates
September 26 – Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
October 4 – Longwood University, Farmville, VA
(Vice Presidential Debate)
October 9 – Washington University – St. Louis, MO
(Town hall style debate)
October 19 – University of Nevada, Las Vegas – Las
Vegas NV
Toward Election Day
After the debates:
Final push for ads and winning over the (by now) very small number of
“undecideds”
GOTV activities begin, especially in states with early voting
Election Day on the 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in
November…why?
November is between the end of the harvest and the first snowfall in
most places
People couldn’t travel in their horse-and-buggies on Sundays
The Electoral College
The Electoral College Meets
Electoral College meets
on the 1st Monday after
the 2nd Wednesday in
December
Meetings occurred in
state capitols on Dec. 19,
2016
Which five states swung
from the Democrats in
2012 to the Republicans
in 2016?
The 2016 Presidential Election
Election Results
Popular Vote Electoral College
Hillary Clinton: Hillary Clinton: 227
65,844,954 votes (48.2 votes
percent)
Donald Trump: Donald Trump: 304
62,979,879 votes (46.1 votes
percent)
Meeting of the Electoral College
On Monday, December 19, 2016, the Electoral College met
in the 50 state capitols and formally elected Donald Trump
as President
Note below that some states (including Texas) had
“faithless electors”
Donald Trump Secures Electoral College Win, With Few Su
rprises; From NPR. December 19, 2016.