Statistics for Managers

Using Microsoft® Excel

5th Edition

Chapter 9
Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing:
One Sample Tests

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-1
 Learning Objectives

In this chapter, you will learn:

 The basic principles of hypothesis testing
 How to use hypothesis testing to test a mean or
proportion
 The assumptions of each hypothesis-testing
procedure, how to evaluate them, and the
consequences if they are seriously violated
 How to avoid the pitfalls involved in hypothesis
testing
 Ethical issues involved in hypothesis testing

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-2
 The Hypothesis
 A hypothesis is a claim (assumption) about a
population parameter:
 population mean

Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill of this

city is μ = $52

 population proportion

Example: The proportion of adults in this city with

cell phones is π = .68

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-3
 The Null Hypothesis, H0
 States the assumption (numerical) to be tested

Example: The mean number of TV sets in U.S.

Homes is equal to three.
H0 : μ  3

 Is always about a population parameter, not about

a sample statistic.

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-4
 The Null Hypothesis, H0

 Begin with the assumption that the null

hypothesis is true
 Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
 It refers to the status quo
 Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
 May or may not be rejected

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-5
 The Alternative Hypothesis, H1

 Is the opposite of the null hypothesis

 e.g., The mean number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )
 Challenges the status quo
 Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
 May or may not be proven
 Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to prove

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-6
 The Hypothesis Testing
Process
 Claim: The population mean age is 50.
 H0: μ = 50, H1: μ ≠ 50
 Sample the population and find sample mean.

Population

Sample

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-7
 The Hypothesis Testing
Process
 Suppose the sample mean age was X = 20.
 This is significantly lower than the claimed mean
population age of 50.
 If the null hypothesis were true, the probability of
getting such a different sample mean would be very
small, so you reject the null hypothesis .
 In other words, getting a sample mean of 20 is so
unlikely if the population mean was 50, you
conclude that the population mean must not be 50.

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-8
 The Hypothesis Testing
Process
Sampling
Distribution of X

X
20 μ = 50
If H0 is true ... then you reject
If it is unlikely that you
the null hypothesis
would get a sample
that μ = 50.
mean of this value ... ... if in fact this were
the population mean…
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-9
 The Test Statistic and
Critical Values
 If the sample mean is close to the assumed
population mean, the null hypothesis is not
rejected.
 If the sample mean is far from the assumed
population mean, the null hypothesis is
rejected.
 How far is “far enough” to reject H0?
 The critical value of a test statistic creates a
“line in the sand” for decision making.

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-10
 The Test Statistic and
Critical Values
Distribution of the test statistic

Region of Region of
Rejection Rejection

Critical Values

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-11
 Errors in Decision Making
 Type I Error
 Reject a true null hypothesis
 Considered a serious type of error
 The probability of a Type I Error is 

 Called level of significance of the test

 Set by researcher in advance
 Type II Error
 Failure to reject false null hypothesis
 The probability of a Type II Error is β

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-12
 Errors in Decision Making

Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes

Actual Situation

Decision H0 True H0 False

Do Not No Error Type II Error

Reject H0 Probability 1 - α Probability β
Reject H0 Type I Error No Error
Probability α Probability 1 - β

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-13
 Level of Significance, α
Claim: The population
 Represents
mean age is 50. critical value

H0: μ = 50
Two-tail test Rejection
H1: μ ≠ 50 region is
0
shaded
H0: μ ≤ 50 
Upper-tail test
H1: μ > 50
0

H0: μ ≥ 50
Lower-tail test 
H1: μ < 50
0
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-14
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known

For two tail test for the mean, σ known:

 Convert sample statistic ( X ) to test statistic

X μ
Z 
σ
n
 Determine the critical Z values for a specified
level of significance  from a table or by using Excel
 Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the rejection
region, reject H0 ; otherwise do not reject H0
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-15
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
H0: μ = 3
 There are two
H1: μ ≠
cutoff values
(critical values), 3
defining the /2 /2
regions of
rejection
3 X
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
-Z +Z Z
0
Lower Upper
critical critical
value value

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-16
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known

Example: Test the claim that the true mean weight of

chocolate bars manufactured in a factory is 3 ounces.

 State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses

 H0: μ = 3 H1: μ ≠ 3 (This is a two tailed test)
 Specify the desired level of significance
 Suppose that  = .05 is chosen for this test
 Choose a sample size
 Suppose a sample of size n = 100 is selected

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-17
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
 Determine the appropriate technique
 σ is known so this is a Z test
 Set up the critical values
 For  = .05 the critical Z values are ±1.96
 Collect the data and compute the test statistic
 Suppose the sample results are
n = 100, X = 2.84
(σ = 0.8 is assumed known from past company records)
So the test statistic is: Z 
Xμ

2.84  3

 .16
 2.0
σ 0.8 .08
n 100

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-18
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
 Is the test statistic in the rejection region?

 = .05/2  = .05/2

Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Reject H0 if
Z < -1.96 or -Z= -1.96 0 +Z= +1.96
Z > 1.96;
otherwise do
not reject H0 Here, Z = -2.0 < -1.96, so the test
statistic is in the rejection region

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-19
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known

 Reach a decision and interpret the result

 Since Z = -2.0 < -1.96, you reject the null
hypothesis and conclude that there is sufficient
evidence that the mean weight of chocolate
bars is not equal to 3.

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-20
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
6 Steps of Hypothesis Testing:
1. State the null hypothesis, H0 and state the
alternative hypotheses, H1
2. Choose the level of significance, α, and the sample
size n.
3. Determine the appropriate statistical technique and
the test statistic to use
4. Find the critical values and determine the rejection
region(s)

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-21
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known

5. Collect data and compute the test statistic from the

sample result
6. Compare the test statistic to the critical value to
determine whether the test statistic falls in the
region of rejection. Make the statistical decision:
Reject H0 if the test statistic falls in the rejection
region. Express the decision in the context of the
problem

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-22
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
p-Value Approach
 The p-value is the probability of obtaining a
test statistic equal to or more extreme ( < or
> ) than the observed sample value given H0
is true
 Also called observed level of significance
 Smallest value of  for which H0 can be
rejected

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-23
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
p-Value Approach
 Convert Sample Statistic (ex. X) to Test
Statistic (ex. Z statistic )
 Obtain the p-value from a table or by using
Excel
 Compare the p-value with 
 If p-value <  , reject H0
 If p-value   , do not reject H0

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-24
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
p-Value Approach
 Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is  = 3.0?

X = 2.84 is translated to a Z
score of Z = -2.0 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

P(Z  2.0)  .0228 .0228 .0228

P(Z  2.0)  .0228

p-value
=.0228 + .0228 = . -1.96 0 1.96 Z
0456 -2.0 2.0
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-25
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
p-Value Approach
 Compare the p-value with 
 If p-value <  , reject H0
 If p-value   , do not reject H0

Here: p-value = .0456 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

 = .05 .0228 .0228
Since .0456 < .05, you
reject the null
hypothesis
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-26
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Confidence Interval Connections
 For X = 2.84, σ = 0.8 and n = 100, the 95%
confidence interval is:
0.8 0.8
2.84 - (1.96) to 2.84  (1.96)
100 100

2.6832 ≤ μ ≤ 2.9968

 Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized

mean (3.0), you reject the null hypothesis at  = .05
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-27
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
One Tail Tests
 In many cases, the alternative hypothesis
focuses on a particular direction

This is a lower-tail test since the

H0: μ ≥ 3
alternative hypothesis is focused on the
lower tail below the mean of 3
H1: μ < 3
H0: μ ≤ 3 This is an upper-tail test since the
alternative hypothesis is focused on the
H1: μ > 3 upper tail above the mean of 3

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-28
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Lower Tail Tests
 There is only one critical value, since the
rejection area is in only one tail.

Reject H0 Do not reject

-Z H0 Z
μ X

Critical value

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-29
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Tests
 There is only one critical value, since the
rejection area is in only one tail.

Do not reject Reject

Z H0 Z H0
X μ

Critical value

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-30
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
A phone industry manager thinks that customer
monthly cell phone bills have increased, and now
average more than $52 per month. The company
wishes to test this claim. Past company records
indicate that the standard deviation is about $10.

Form hypothesis test:

H0: μ ≤ 52 the mean is less than or equal to than $52 per month
H1: μ > 52 the mean is greater than $52 per month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
manager’s claim)

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-31
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
 Suppose that  = .10 is chosen for this test
 Find the rejection region:
Reject H0

1- = .90
 = .10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0 Z

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-32
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
What is Z given a = 0.10?
.90 .10
Z .07 .08 .09
a = .10
1.1 .8790 .8810 .8830
.90
1.2 .8980 .8997 .9015
z 0 1.28
1.3 .9147 .9162 .9177
Critical Value
= 1.28

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-33
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
 Obtain sample and compute the test statistic.
 Suppose a sample is taken with the following
results: n = 64, X = 53.1 (=10 was
assumed known from past company records)
 Then the test statistic is:

Xμ 53.1  52
Z    0.88
σ 10
n 64

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-34
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
 Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0
1- = .90
 = .10

0 1.28
Z = .88

Do not reject H0 since Z = 0.88 ≤ 1.28

i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the mean bill is greater than $52
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-35
 Hypothesis Testing: σ Known
Upper Tail Test Example
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
p-value = .1894

Reject H0
P( X  53.1)
 = .10
 53.1  52.0 
 P Z  
 10/ 64 
0
Do not reject
1.28
Reject H0  P(Z  0.88)  1  .8106
H0
Z = .88  .1894

Do not reject H0 since p-value = .1894 >  = .10

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-36
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown
 If the population standard deviation is
unknown, you instead use the sample
standard deviation S.
 Because of this change, you use the t
distribution instead of the Z distribution to
test the null hypothesis about the mean.
 All other steps, concepts, and conclusions are
the same.

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-37
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown
 Recall that the t test statistic with n-1
degrees of freedom is:

X μ
t n -1 
S
n

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-38
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown Example
The mean cost of a hotel room in New York is said
to be $168 per night. A random sample of 25 hotels
resulted in X = $172.50 and S = 15.40. Test at the
 = 0.05 level.

(A stem-and-leaf display and a normal probability plot

indicate the data are approximately normally distributed )

H0: μ= 168

H1: μ
168
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-39
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown Example
H0: μ = 168
Determine the regions of rejection
H1: μ ≠ 168
 α = 0.05
 n = 25 α/2=.025 α/2=.025

  is unknown, so
use a t statistic Reject H0 Reject H0
Do not reject H0 t n-1,α/2
 Critical Value: -t n-1,α/2 0
t24 = ± 2.0639 -2.0639 2.0639

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-40
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown Example
X μ 172.50  168
t n 1    1.46
S 15.40
n 25
a/2=.025 a/2=.025

-t n-1,α/2 t n-1,α/2
0 1.46
-2.0639 2.0639
Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence
that true mean cost is different from $168
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-41
 Hypothesis Testing:
Connection to Confidence Intervals
 For X = 172.5, S = 15.40 and n = 25, the 95%
confidence interval is:
15.4 15.4
172.5 - (2.0639) to 172.5  (2.0639)
25 25
166.14 ≤ μ ≤ 178.86

 Since this interval contains the hypothesized

mean (168), you do not reject the null hypothesis
at  = .05
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-42
 Hypothesis Testing:
σ Unknown
 Recall that you assume that the sample
statistic comes from a random sample from a
normal distribution.
 If the sample size is small (< 30), you should
use a box-and-whisker plot or a normal
probability plot to assess whether the
assumption of normality is valid.
 If the sample size is large, the central limit
theorem applies and the sampling
distribution of the mean will be normal.
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-43
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
 Involves categorical variables
 Two possible outcomes
 “Success” (possesses a certain characteristic)
 “Failure” (does not possesses that
characteristic)
 Fraction or proportion of the population in
the “success” category is denoted by π

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-44
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
 Sample proportion in the success category is denoted by p

X number of successes in sample

p 
n sample size

 When both nπ and n(1-π) are at least 5, p can be

approximated by a normal distribution with mean and
standard deviation
 (1   )
μp   σp 
n

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-45
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
 The sampling distribution of p is
approximately normal, so the test statistic is
a Z value:

p 
Z
 (1   )
n

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-46
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example
A marketing company claims that it receives
8% responses from its mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample of 500 were
surveyed with 30 responses. Test at the  = .
05 significance level.

First, check:
n π = (500)(.08) = 40
n(1-π) = (500)(.92) = 460

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-47
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example

H0: π = .08 H1: π ≠ .08 Determine region of rejection

α = .05
Reject Reject
n = 500, p = .06

Critical Values: ± 1.96 .025 .025

0 z
-1.96 1.96

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-48
 Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example
Test Statistic: Decision:
p  .06  .08 Do not reject H0 at
Z   1.648
 (1   ) .08(1  .08)  = .05
n 500 Conclusion:
There isn’t sufficient
evidence to reject the
.025 .025
company’s claim of
0 z 8% response rate.
-1.96 1.96
-1.646
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-49
 Potential Pitfalls and
Ethical Considerations
 Use randomly collected data to reduce selection
biases
 Do not use human subjects without informed
consent
 Choose the level of significance, α, before data
collection
 Do not employ “data snooping” to choose between
one-tail and two-tail test, or to determine the level of
significance
 Do not practice “data cleansing” to hide
observations that do not support a stated hypothesis
 Report all pertinent findings

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-50
 Chapter Summary
In this chapter, we have
 Addressed hypothesis testing methodology
 Performed Z Test for the mean (σ known)
 Discussed critical value and p–value approaches to
hypothesis testing
 Performed one-tail and two-tail tests

 Performed t test for the mean (σ unknown)

 Performed Z test for the proportion

 Discussed pitfalls and ethical issues

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 9-51