Probability & Statistical Modelling
(AQ077-3-2-PSMOD VC1)
Introduction and Overview
Lecturer Information
Lecturer Name: Adie Safian
Email: [Link]@[Link]
Telephone Extension:
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Pre-requisites for this module
Mathematics for Technology (MT) or
Quantitative Skills (QSS)
Or equivalent
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Aims of this module
The aim of this module is to equip students
with the appropriate techniques to make
predictions under uncertainty and make
inferences about large populations from much
smaller samples.
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Course Learning Outcomes, CLOs
At the end of this module, YOU should be able to:
Apply decision-making techniques, including probability
models and Bayes’ theorem.
Model discrete and continuous variables using
appropriate distribution
Analyze bivariate data, including correlation &
regression.
Conduct summary measures of statistics and
interpretation of output of a statistical package
Conduct estimation & statistical testing
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Mapping of CLOs with MOEs Domain
MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
CLO1 √
CLO2 √
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MQF and MOE Domains
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Teaching Strategies
Situation Teaching Learning Activities
Activities
LECTURE Talk, explain, Listen, take notes, accept, query, discuss
clarify with peers, one-minute paper
TUTORIAL Set/answer Pre-read, prepare questions, learn from
questions, peers, critique, analyse
provide feedback
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Assessment Methods
Incourse Assessment 50%
• Assignment 40%
• Quizzes (2) 10%
Final Exam 50%
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Student Learning Time (SLT)
• Course Credit Value: 3
• Total Learning Hours:
Lecture: 1 time 1 hour per week
Tutorial: 1 time 2 hours per week
Independent Learning Time:
Students must be responsible for their own learning and
define clearly independent learning time.
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Methods of Delivery
Hence,
• We are now moving from the traditional topic
based teaching to outcome-based education
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Outcomes Based Education (OBE)
• OBE is education based on producing
particular educational outcomes that:
Focus on what students can actually do
after they are taught
Expect all learners / students to
successfully achieve particular (sometimes
minimum) level of knowledge and abilities.
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So…What is OBE?
It’s
NOT
What we want to teach,
It’s
What You should learn
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Course Content Outline
Chapter 1: Concept of Probability
Chapter 2: Probability Distribution
Chapter 3: Decision Making Techniques
Chapter 4: Summary Measures of Statistics
Chapter 5: Estimation & Confidence intervals
Chapter 6: Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 7: Regression & Correlation
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What is expected of you
You should abide to all the rules &
regulation of APU
Proper attire
No speaking of dialects
Attendance is compulsory and valid medical
certificates or letters from parents /guardians
must support any absence from class.
Three lateness will be equal to one absence
All handphones should be turned off during
lectures.
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Students doing things not related to the current
lecture will be asked to leave the room and
disciplinary action will be taken in accordance
with the Institute’s rules and regulations.
Students should not leave the room during a
lecture except with the agreement of the
lecturer
Students have to submit the EC form for late
assignment and missing from class test.
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What support is available for you
Consultation hours
Resources
Reference material
Internet resources
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Reference material
Bluman, A. (2017). Elementary Statistics: A
Step By Step Approach, 10th Ed. McGraw-Hill
Higer Education. (ISBN:13:978-1259755330;
ISBN-10:1259755339).
Sheldon M. Ross (2014). Introduction to
Probability Models,11th Edition. Academic
Press Inc, (ISBN:13: 978012409489, ISBN10:
0124079482).
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Quiz format
Duration: 30 minutes
Answer all questions
Topics covered are
Chapter 1: Concept of probability (Quiz 1)
Chapter 2: Decision Making Techniques (Quiz 2)
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Assignment format
Duration:
This paper consists four questions (each question
25 marks) and answer all.
Topics covered are
Chapter 1: Concept of probability
Chapter 2: Decision Making Techniques
Chapter 3: Summary Measures of Statistics
Chapter 4: Probability Distributions
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Examination format
Duration: 2 hours
This paper consists of two Sections.
Section A (10 Questions x 5 = 50 marks)
Answer All
Section B (2 Questions x 25 = 50 marks)
Answer 2 out of 3 questions
Calculators are permitted.
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Topic covered are
Chapter 2: Probability Distributions
Chapter 5: Estimation and Confidence Interval
Chapter 6: Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 7: Regression & Correlation
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Achievement requirements
Marks Alphabetical Grade Classification
80 – 100 A+ Distinction
75 – 79 A Distinction
70 – 74 B+ Credit
65 – 69 B Credit
60 – 64 C+ Pass
55 – 59 C Pass
50 – 54 C- Pass
40 – 49 D Fail(Marginal)
30 – 39 F+ Fail
20 – 29 F Fail
0 – 19 F- Fail
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Question and Answer Session
Q&A
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What we will cover next
Concept of Probability
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