1991-Present

 The end of the Cold War came

as a shock to most and
optimism was the prevailing
sentiment beginning in 1989.
◦ Best illustrated by Francis
Fukuyama’s work “The End of
History,” which is idealistic and
upbeat over the long term.
 Central point: humankind’s political
and social evolution has an endpoint
which is the kind of democratic,
liberal, capitalist system and society
that the Western European powers
are closest to achieving.
 Other supporting evidence includes
worldwide economic liberalization;
the failures of monarchy, fascism,
and then communism; and the
spread of Western ideals and culture.
 Despite the optimism,
globalization walked
hand in hand with
fragmentation following
the end of the Cold War.
◦ Most prominent view:
Samuel P. Huntington in
his work “The Clash of
Civilizations.”
 Conflicts of the future will not
be economic or ideological
but cultural as globalization
brings people into contact.
 People from different cultures
can be motivated by:
 Opposing worldviews,
 Ethical beliefs, and
 Behavioral standards.
 Huntington’s
conclusions also build
on the phrase “the
West versus the rest,”
with the most striking
cultural divide being
Western culture versus
Islamic civilization.
◦ Thus, globalization and
fragmentation, as well as
conflict and cooperation,
have continued to
dominate the post-Cold
War landscape.
 In 1991, President
George Bush
envisioned a system
wherein states would
cooperate against
common threats,
declaring the
establishment of a
“new world order”;
◦ The post-Cold War
world would be less
confrontational.
 Bipolarity came to an
end,
◦ Replaced by a system
which the U.S. was
unchallenged militarily.
 Some states
welcomed this
situation,
◦ But larger regional
rivals (e.g., Russia,
China, and India) were
not as enthusiastic.
 Following the eight-year
struggle with Iran, Iraq
owed substantial debt to
Gulf Arab states;
◦ Iraq also possessed the
fourth largest conventional
army in the world (roughly
equal to the size of
Kuwait’s entire population).
 In an attempt to gain a
dominant position in the
Persian Gulf, Iraq invaded
and annexed its
neighbor, Kuwait, in
1990.
 The naked aggression
shocked the international
community.
◦ U.S. took the lead in
forming an international
coalition,
 Supported by UN Security
Council Resolutions, to expel
Saddam Hussein’s forces
from Kuwait.
 The victory was swift;
◦ 1st phase consisted of
unprecedented air
bombardment and
◦ 2nd phase consisted of a
ground campaign lasting
approximately one
hundred hours.
Operation Desert Storm
 The offensive was
halted before taking
Baghdad or deposing
Saddam Hussein
◦ Would be completed in
2003.
 The defeat led to a
system of UN
inspections in an
attempt to verify Iraq’s
disposal of its WMD
capabilities, and the
seeds of future conflict
were planted.
 In 1993, the
European Community
became the European
Union (EU),
consisting of a single
market for capital,
goods, services, and
labor;
◦ European Parliament
with powers to pass
legislation binding on
all members; an
executive body; and
◦ A Court of Justice.
 In 2002, the Euro became legal
tender in most member states
and
◦ In 2003, the EU expanded.
 The road traveled by the EU
has not been without its
potholes,
◦ Several countries delayed entrance
or rejected the acceptance of the
common currency;
◦ Critics charge that its rules and
regulations fail to consider the
concerns of individual countries,
provinces, or local communities.
 Regardless of its problems, the
EU has provided the political
and economic framework for
an unprecedented era of peace
and prosperity for its
members.
 In the post-Cold War
period, the U.S. role shifted
from that of a traditional
hegemon to steward of an
increasingly integrated
international economic
system.
◦ U.S. economic hegemony
derived its dominance in
global trade and finance from
the size of its markets and
from the role of the dollar as a
reserve currency and unit of
international exchange.
◦ The principal role of the
United States in the IMF, the
World Bank, and Group of 8,
also promote its continued
hegemony.
 Other countries’
misfortunes and obstacles
to growth contributed to
U.S. dominance.
◦ Germany and Japan each
experienced social, political,
and economic setbacks that
undermined their
competitiveness.
◦ China and Russia continue to
have serious structural
weaknesses in their
economies;
 China’s economy is developing
rapidly but is based on labor and
is handicapped by logistics and
corruption;
 Russia also suffers from
corruption and the long-term
effects of stultifying Soviet
policies.
 The Middle East
◦ Problems continue to
exist with the future
of Iraq and concerns
over containing Iran.
 Secret negotiations in  Extremists on both sides,
Oslo, Norway, in 1993 determined to destroy
resulted in the PLO and the peace process, made
Israel recognizing each subsequent agreements
other’s legitimacy for the impossible to implement,
first time; led to a peace and in 2000, the Al-Aqsa
treaty between Israel and Intifada began in
Jordan in 1994. response to Ariel
Sharon’s visit to a
Muslim-controlled area
sacred to both Muslims
and Jews.
 Conflict escalated in
2002 as Palestinian
◦ Conflict escalated in 2002 as Palestinian
groups launched more suicide bomb
attacks and Israel responded with major
incursions into the West Bank and Gaza;
the same year, the United States,
Russia, the UN, and the EU formed the
“Quartet” and developed a “road map”
for peace.
◦ Yasser Arafat died in 2004, creating a
possible opportunity for progress as
Mahmoud Abbas was elected president
of the Palestinian National Authority.
◦ In 2005, Israel unilaterally disengaged
from Gaza, seen by some as a positive
step forward and others as a breach of
security.
◦ In 2006, Hamas won a majority of seats
in the Palestinian parliamentary
elections and infighting began between
the two Palestinian factions, Hamas and
Fatah, culminating in the bloody
takeover of Gaza by Hamas in June
2007.
 International
relations in South
Asia are dominated
by the conflict
between India and
Pakistan; the sources
of instability stem
from the colonial
legacy, the efforts of
regional states to
consolidate control,
and ethnic and
religious animosity.
 In Britain’s hasty
withdrawal from
India after World War
II (see Chapter 5),
borders were drawn
that left many
Muslims in India and
Hindus in Pakistan;
the most contentious
area was Kashmir,
over which India and
Pakistan have
repeatedly clashed.
 Although both had
previously admitted
to possessing the
capability to
produce nuclear
weapons (with India
conducting a test in
1974), 1998
brought a series of
nuclear tests by
both sides.
 Debate continues over
whether this situation
creates stability because
neither will be willing to
risk a nuclear war
(deterrence theory) or if this
increases the risk of nuclear
destruction due to a
potential inability to control
conflict.
 Peace talks began in 2004
(and continued through
2007) with the aim of
improving all aspects of the
India-Pakistan relationship,
including the conflict over
Kashmir.
 On the Korean peninsula, tensions
appeared to be decreasing following
the end of the Cold War, as North
and South Korea conducted direct
talks and both were admitted to the
UN.
 Tensions rose again, however, in
1994 after North Korea refused to
allow international inspections of its
plutonium reprocessing plant and
threatened to withdraw from the
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
 Tensions were temporarily defused
by the Agreed Framework, through
which the United States, Japan, and
South Korea would provide North
Korea assistance with its civilian
nuclear power program.
 The situation became
worse, however, in 1998
when the North tested a
“space launch vehicle” that
could be used as a long-
range missile.
 By 2002 it became apparent
that neither the United
States nor North Korea had
fulfilled its obligations
under the Agreed
Framework; tensions rose
and as North Korea
defiantly restarted its
production of nuclear
material and in 2003
withdrew from the NPT.
 Several rounds of six-party
talks (North Korea, the United
States, Russia, Japan, South
Korea, and China) produced an
agreement in 2007 when North
Korea agreed to close its main
nuclear reactor in exchange for
fuel.
 Underlying tension between
China and Taiwan is a
continuing issue; despite
increasing trade between the
United States and China,
tensions on strategic issues
remain, especially concerning
China’s ambitions concerning
Taiwan and China’s nuclear
and missile forces.
 Several crises in the post-
Cold War world highlighted
the need for effective,
unified international
responses when diplomatic
efforts at conflict resolution
failed.
 Yugoslavia fragmented into
ethnic-based republics
after a bloody civil war.
◦ The UN underwent a
disastrous intervention in
Bosnia in 1995.
◦ Although reluctant to do so,
the United States led a NATO
military intervention against
Serbian forces in 1999 to halt
violence in Kosovo.
 Somalia was being torn apart
by competing warlords who
were using famine as a weapon
against the population.
◦ The UN attempted to intervene
with a small humanitarian
operation, which failed, prompting
the United States to lead an
international task force to provide
humanitarian assistance.
◦ Anxious to expand the mission to
nation-building, the UN pressured
the United States to redirect its
mission to capture or kill
Mogadishu warlord Mohamed
Farah Aideed; in their efforts, two
Blackhawk helicopters were shot
down and eighteen American
soldiers were killed.
 Genocide in Rwanda in 1994
culminated in nearly a million
deaths and demonstrated a
profound failure of collective
action.
◦ The trigger for the violence was
the assassination of Hutu
President Juvenal Habyarimana,
who had ruled Rwanda under the
banner of “Hutu Power.”
◦ The Hutu government incited
mobs to slaughter Tutsis and
moderate Hutus.
◦ The genocide came to an end
when the Rwanda Patriotic Front
fought its way into Kigali and
assumed control of the
government under the leadership
of Paul Kagame.
 The genocide in the Darfur
region of Sudan has also
demonstrated the
international community’s
toothlessness in dealing
with humanitarian crises.
◦ Forces of the Sudanese
government and ethnic militia
have undertaken a systematic
campaign of “ethnic cleansing”
to crush rebel forces in
Darfur.
◦ The African Union and the UN
have taken actions to help the
people of Sudan, but it
remains to be seen if these
actions will curb the violence.
 Despite the success of
collective security in the
Gulf War, its limitations
have been apparent in the
post-Cold War world as
several difficulties have
become clear.
◦ The “free-rider” problem:
many countries used the
expectation of international
action as an excuse to avoid
acting themselves (e.g., in the
former Yugoslavia, neither the
United States nor European
states were willing to
undertake the burden of
intervention, instead waiting
for the other to act).
◦ National sovereignty: UN ◦ Despite these problems,
peacekeeping forces can only collective security has not
enter a country with the been without its successes:
permission of the state in missions to provide food,
which they will operate, and medicine, and other basic
without that consent military needs to nations hit by the
action would have to be Indian Ocean tsunami of
authorized by the Security 2004; UN-managed peaceful
Council (a step that has only democratic transitions in
been taken twice by the UN, Namibia and Cambodia.
against North Korea in 1950
and Iraq in 1991); thus if
states are serious about
collective security, they must
be willing to violate the
principles of national
sovereignty, something most
states are reluctant to do.
 The Terror of September 11
◦ On September 11, 2001, hijackers crashed two jet
airliners into the World Trade Center in New York
City and another into the Pentagon in Washington,
D.C.; a fourth was brought down by passengers in
rural Pennsylvania.
 A network of Islamic terrorist organizations led by Osama
bin Laden, known as Al Qaeda, was responsible (this was
not their first successful attack as they were responsible for
attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kenya and Tanzania, and Yemen).
 The response was a multinational military campaign against
the Taliban in Afghanistan (which had been a base of
operations for Al Qaeda) and a global “war on terror” that
would rely on diplomacy, law enforcement, intelligence, and
military operations; the response was criticized for failing to
deal with the “root causes” of terrorism.
◦ War in Iraq
 In 2002, George W. Bush characterized Iraq, Iran, and North
Korea as the “axis of evil”; using evidence to indicate that
Saddam Hussein had not complied with UN Security Council
resolutions to disarm, the United States (with the support of
Great Britain and “the coalition of the willing”) ousted
Saddam Hussein from power in 2003 (without UN approval).
 Saddam Hussein was found at the end of 2003, tried for war
crimes and crimes against humanity in 2006, and was
executed on December 30, 2006.
 Although the goal of toppling Hussein’s regime was
attained quickly, the long-term effects are still uncertain;
the challenges of building democracy in Iraq are formidable
and a complex set of insurgencies and terrorist movements
continue to wreak havoc on coalition soldiers and Iraqi
civilians.
◦ Despite the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan
and Hussein in Iraq, terrorists continue to shock the
world with high death tolls; Great Britain, Indonesia,
Spain, and Egypt have all been targets of significant
terrorist acts since the inception of the War on
Terror.
 Conclusion
◦ This chapter has
demonstrated that
understanding the
post-Cold War world is
a difficult undertaking,
not only for world
citizens but for leaders
as well.
◦ Realists, liberals, and
constructivists would
view the post-Cold War
era in different ways.