Chapter 6
Population Growth
and Economic
Development:
Causes,
Consequences,
and Controversies
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
Estimated World Population Growth
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-2
World Population Growth, 1750-2050
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-3
World Population Distribution by Region,
2003 and 2050
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-4
World Population Distribution
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-5
Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
• Family planning takes many years to achieve
two-child family and eventually replacement
fertility because today’s children are future
parents
• In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990
• Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years)
• Replacement fertility would eventually reach in
2150 (115 years)
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-6
The Demographic Transition
• Stage I: High birthrates and death rates
• Stage II: Continued high birthrates; declining
death rates because of improved medicine
• Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates,
eventually stabilizing due to improved
medicine and decline in the fertility rate
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-7
The Malthusian Trap
• Population grows at a geometric ratio
(e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.)
• Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio
(e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.)
• Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall
follow
• Remedy is to keep population growth in check
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-8
Criticism of The Malthusian Trap
• Rapid income growth due to technological
advancement
• Greater food production due to land-
intensive technology and application of
modern farm inputs
• Economic growth faster than population
growth, resulting in the rise of per capita
income over time
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-9
Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
Demand for Children Equation
Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n
Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the “net” price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-10
Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
Demand for Children Equation
Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n
Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:
Cd Cd
0 0
Y Px
Cd Cd
0 0
Pc tx
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-11
Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
• In LDCs, the demand for children is high
because the cost of raising children is low
and they add to the family’s workforce to
generate income
– In LDCs, children are “investment goods”
– In MDCs, children are “consumer goods”
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-12
Policies of Fertility Reduction
• Improve female education, and economic
and social role and status
• Provide of female non-agricultural wage
employment
• Rise in family income
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-13
Policies of Fertility Reduction
• Reduction in infant mortality, hence demand
for replacement children
• Provide old-age income security
• Expand schooling opportunities
• Establish family planning programs
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-14
Consequences of High Fertility
Population growth isn’t a real problem. The problems
are
• Poverty and lack of development
• World resource depletion and environmental
destruction
• Uneven distribution of population
• Subordination of women
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-15
Consequences of High Fertility
• Slow or negative growth of per capita income
• Increased poverty and inequality
• Inadequate educational and health-care services
• Food shortage and hunger
• Environmental decay and loss of natural resources
• International migration
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-16
Some Policy Approaches
What can LDCs do to reduce fertility?
• Improve economic and social equality
• Invest in female education and job creation
• Educate people about negative consequences of
high fertility rate and provide family planning
programs
• Provide incentives to reduce rural-urban migration
and brain drain
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-17
Countries Adopting Family-Planning
Programs, 1960-1990
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-18
Some Policy Approaches
How can MDCs help LDCs reduce fertility?
• Improve international economic relations
• Research into technology of fertility control
• Financial assistance for family planning
programs
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-19