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Ravenstein's Gravity Model of Migration

The Gravity Model and Ravenstein's Laws of Migration are two approaches used to predict migration flows. The Gravity Model, based on Newton's law of gravity, estimates interaction between places based on their population sizes and the distance between them. Ravenstein's laws identify patterns in migration, such as that most migrants move short distances, and the volume of migration declines with greater source-destination separation. Together these models provide a way to understand and forecast migration geography.

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21 views11 pages

Ravenstein's Gravity Model of Migration

The Gravity Model and Ravenstein's Laws of Migration are two approaches used to predict migration flows. The Gravity Model, based on Newton's law of gravity, estimates interaction between places based on their population sizes and the distance between them. Ravenstein's laws identify patterns in migration, such as that most migrants move short distances, and the volume of migration declines with greater source-destination separation. Together these models provide a way to understand and forecast migration geography.

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Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
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Predicting Migration: The

Gravity Model and Ravenstein

WHY DO PEOPLE MIGRATE TO SPECIFIC


PLACES?
Objectives

 Today we will be able to identify how geographers


predict the size and destination of migration flows.
Distance on Migration

 Distance Decay – The


tendency for migration,
or any other spatial
interaction, to decrease
with distance.
 Distance creates more
drag or friction on
movement.
 People are unlikely to
move to faraway places
they know little about.
Migration Streams
 When groups migrate, they
tend to move in well-defined
channels from specific origins
to specific destinations.
 They result from information
flows between origins and
destinations.
 Letters, telephone calls, return
visits from individuals.
 Earlier migrants assist
newcomers with employment,
housing, and adjustment.
 A migration counterstream is
the flow of people back to
their place of origin
Examples of Migration Streams in the United
States
 New York and New Jersey to
Florida
 The midwestern states and
California
 Employment migration
streams
 Immigration to United States
from nations of origin to
immigrant communities or
enclaves.
 Familiar language, food,
music, and religious
institutions.
 Cuba to Florida
 Mexico to southwest
 Ireland to Boston
Can we predict migrant flows?
 Why is it important to
make migration
predictions?
 Important in making
accurate population
projections and monitoring
regional economic health
an quality of life.
 Some predictions merely
look at past migration
trends.
 Looking at the geography
of migration can give us a
more detailed look.
The Gravity Model

 Based off of Isaac


Newton’s formula for
gravitational attraction
between two celestial
masses.
 Newton’s law has been
adapted to the social
sciences to estimate the
spatial interaction or
movement between any
two places.
 William J. Reilly, 1931
Example of Migration to California
Share Your Findings

 Share your findings from the Gravity Model Lab with


your shoulder partner.
 Be prepared to share with the class.
Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration

1. Every migration flow generates a return or counter-


migration
2. The majority of migrants move a short distance
3. Migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big-city
destinations
4. Urban residents are less migratory than inhabitants of rural
areas
5. Families are less likely to make international moves than
young adults
• An inverse relationship between the volume of migration
and the distance between source and destination
• The number of migrants to a destination declines as the distance they
must travel increases.
Other Key Ideas

 Step migration – The series of stages that migrants go


through to reach a final destination.
 Rural Brazil to a village to a town to Rio de Janeiro.
 Chain Migration – Flows along and through kinship
links.
 Immigration Waves – Swells in the number of migrants
to a destination
 Intervening Opportunity – Opportunities along the
migration stream which may keep the mogrant from
actually reaching the final destination.
 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) – People displaved
within their own country
 Katrina

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