ASL751
CO2: Introduction, Global & Spatial
Patterns, Variability & Impacts
Bhavesh Purohit
2018AST2713
The Carbon Cycle
CO2 Emission Sources
Major Sources of CO2
Anthropogenic perturbation of the
global carbon cycle
Averaged globally for the decade 2008–2017 (GtCO2/yr)
Probability of exceeding 2°C warming by 2100 in
various emissions scenarios in GtC
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990
Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)
Global fossil CO2 emissions have risen steadily over the last decades.
The peak in global emissions is not yet in sight.
Fossil CO2 Emissions by source
Share of global fossil CO2 emissions in 2017:
coal (40%), oil (35%), gas (20%), cement (4%), flaring (1%, not shown)
Fossil CO2 emissions by continent
Asia dominates global fossil CO2 emissions, while emissions in North America are of
similar size to those in Europe, and the Middle East is growing rapidly.
Fossil CO2 Emissions in India
India’s emissions are growing strongly along with rapid growth in economic activity.
Although India is rapidly deploying solar & wind power, coal continues to grow very
strongly.
Rising pressures
CO2 emissions are growing after pausing for a few years. Clean energy sources are
beginning to replace fossil fuels, as their costs become more competitive.
Energy use by source
Renewable energy is growing exponentially, but this growth has so far been too low to
offset the growth in fossil energy consumption.
Global carbon budget
Carbon emissions are partitioned among the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean
The “imbalance” between total emissions and total sinks reflects the gap in our understanding
Atmospheric concentration
The global CO2 concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 405ppm in 2017 (up 46%)
2016 was the first full year with concentration above 400ppm
Major Consequences I
• Global Warming:
IPCC estimated carbon emissions will cause
global temperature to rise by approx 1.5
degrees Celsius over the next 100 years.
• Increasing Incidents of Severe Weather:
Global warming has the potential to result in
more wildfires, droughts and tropical storms.
Major Consequences II
• Changes in Food Supply:
Changing weather affects agricultural industry
and human food supply. Carbon emissions
contribute to increasing temperatures and
decreasing precipitation, changing the growing
conditions for food crops in many areas.
• Ocean Acidification:
Excess CO2 absorbed by oceans reacts with
seawater to form carbonic acid suppressing
carbonate ion concentration that is essential for
sea animals such as corals and shellfish.
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
• The objective is the large-scale removal of carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere.
• Methods include bio-energy with carbon capture &
storage, biochar, enhanced weathering, direct air
capture(DAC), ocean fertilization, wooden building
construction.
• Three startup companies are betting that they can
make money by recycling CO2, and thereby cool an
overheating planet:
– Kilimanjaro Energy
– Global Thermostat
– Carbon Engineering
References
• Carbon dioxide –significant emission sources and decreasing solutions
(BARDESCU Ioana et al. 2014)
• Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System
Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and
Twenty-First Centuries (GRETCHEN KEPPEL-ALEKS et al. 2013)
• NOAA/ESRL (Dlugokencky and Tans 2018)
• Scripps (Keeling et al. 1976)
• CDIAC (Boden et al. 2017)
• [Link]
All the data is shown in billion tonnes CO2 (GtCO2)
1 Gigatonne (Gt) = 1 billion tonnes = 1×1015g = 1 Petagram (Pg)
1 kg carbon (C) = 3.664 kg carbon dioxide (CO2)
1 GtC = 3.664 billion tonnes CO2 = 3.664 GtCO2