Case Study: Bangladesh
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Santiago HighChapter 4 - Human Population
as an Environmental Problem
Case Study: Bangladesh
Basic Concepts
• Population and Technology: 2 main dangers
1. Numbers of people
2. Impact of each person on the
environment
• I = PAT
• Your text: pg 64: T = P x I
Relative Impact
Avg. American vs. Others
Developing countries represent a larger and larger share of
world population because of higher populations and higher birth
rates.
BIG PLAYERS IN THE FUTURE!
• USA
All meet the following:
• CHINA 1. Big Area
• INDIA 2. Big Economy
• INDONESIA 3. Lots of People!
• BRAZIL
• RUSSIA
• MEXICO
For most of human history, population grew slowly, but in
modern times it has suddenly "exploded."
Industrial rev.
agriculture
Fig 5.4 United States
population 1790 to 2000.
Tapering off?
1 million people added to the world every 4 days!!
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
Women of
Number of Women 15 to 49
Childbearing Age
Billions
2.06
1.98
1.76
1.32
0.86
0.62
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Projecting Population Growth
• Doubling time = assume exp. growth
Estimate by:
70/annual growth rate %
Called the Rule of 70!
Very sensitive to growth rate
Doubling time changes
rapidly with the population
growth rate.
Takes less
time to
double if high
growth rate
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
Population Doubling Time
Examples:
Logistic growth curve.
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
• Predicting HPG:
• The point at which logistic the pop growth
curve begins to slow toward carrying
capacity is called the inflection point.
We are probably not there yet.
The Demographic Transition
• Multi-stage pattern of change
• Leads to decline in growth rates
1. Lifestyle Improvement:
2. Pop. still grows:
3. Birth rate drops:
education
Improved living
conditions
Fig. 6.15 This figure shows population profiles for developed and
developing countries, projected to the year 2025.
• Acute or epidemic disease:
More of a problem in developing
countries
Examples:
• Chronic disease
More of a problem in developed
countries
Examples:
Fig 5.9 Causes of mortality in industrializing,
developing and industrialized nations.
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
• Carrying capacity
• If exceeded, environment will be
changed to the point of lowering the
pop.
• Difficult to calculate globally because
standards of living are not all the
same
• Per capita availability =
• We are nearing the limit of productive
capacity with today’s technology
• Age structure:
• It’s the proportion of the pop. that is in each
age class
TFR = total fertility rate:
Replacement level fertility
The number of women in their childbearing years
has increased since the 1950s and is projected to
continue to increase to 2050.
The number of children per woman has declined
since the 1950s and is projected to continue to
decline.
Even though women have on average fewer
children than their mothers, the absolute
number of babies being born continues to
increase because of the increases in the total
number of women of childbearing age.
Constant TFR
Slow
fertility
reduction
Rapid
fertility
reduction
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
Total fertility rate decreases as
income increases.
© 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers
How to Slow Population
Growth
• Simplest and most effective ways:
• Delay marriage
• Delay the onset of having children
• Educate and raise status of women
• Birth Control in Developing Countries
• 1. Breast feeding:
• 2. Family planning
• 3. Abortion:
• National Programs:
• Most countries have some official
population policy. Effectiveness
varies.
Common questions
Powered by AITechnology plays a substantial role in determining the relative environmental impact of individuals from developed and developing countries. In developed nations, advanced technologies can lead to higher resource consumption and waste production, thereby increasing their environmental footprint. Conversely, in developing countries, the lack of access to efficient technologies often results in traditional, less sustainable methods of resource utilization, though on a per capita basis, their environmental impact may be smaller. Therefore, technology affects both the scale and type of environmental impact between these different groups .
Societal strategies for controlling population growth include delaying marriage, delaying childbirth, improving education and the status of women, and providing access to birth control methods. These interventions are more effective when they are part of well-supported national policies and programs that are culturally appropriate and accessible. Factors affecting their effectiveness include cultural norms, governmental support, economic conditions, and the level of education in the population .
The demographic transition is a multi-stage process involving changes in birth and death rates leading to a decline in population growth rates. Initially, as societies develop, there is an improvement in lifestyle and health care, which reduces death rates while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth. Over time, birth rates begin to decline due to increased access to contraception, improved female education, and economic changes, eventually stabilizing the population growth rate as societies reach a more stable demographic stage .
The Rule of 70 is a method to estimate the doubling time of a population experiencing exponential growth. It is calculated by dividing 70 by the annual growth rate percentage. For example, a population growing at 2% annually would double in about 35 years (70/2 = 35). This rule illustrates how sensitive doubling time is to changes in growth rate; even small increases can significantly shorten the time it takes for a population to double, underscoring the importance of growth rate in demographic analyses .
The I = PAT equation, where I stands for environmental impact, P for population, A for affluence, and T for technology, is used to understand how population growth affects the environment. It illustrates that environmental impact is not solely dependent on the number of people, but also on their consumption patterns and the technology they use. Countries like the USA, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico are considered 'big players' due to their large areas, significant economies, and large populations. As their populations and economies grow, their potential environmental impacts increase, highlighting their significant roles in global population dynamics .
The age structure of a population, which refers to the distribution of people across different age categories, plays a crucial role in determining its growth potential and economic dynamics. A younger population with a large proportion of individuals in the childbearing age group can lead to rapid population growth. Conversely, an aging population, with a larger segment above the working-age, can result in slower growth and increased economic burdens due to higher dependency ratios. This distribution affects economic productivity, healthcare demands, and social services requirements .
Changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) are closely linked to economic trends. Generally, as income levels rise, TFR tends to decrease because of better access to education, healthcare, and family planning services. This decline in TFR can lead to slower population growth and aging in developed countries, while developing countries might still experience high birth rates due to lower economic status. The overall impact is a slowdown in global population growth as more countries achieve higher economic status .
Acute diseases, often more prevalent in developing countries, can lead to higher mortality rates and have significant short-term impacts on population dynamics due to inadequate healthcare infrastructure. In contrast, chronic diseases are more common in developed countries, where they typically result in longer-term health concerns but benefit from better healthcare systems. The prevalence of these disease types influences healthcare planning, economic productivity, and overall population growth patterns based on the health burden they place on societies .
Calculating global carrying capacity is challenging because it is not just about the number of people the Earth can support, but also about the quality of life they experience. Different regions have varying standards of living, leading to different levels of resource consumption. High standards of living demand more resources per capita, thus lowering the carrying capacity. Additionally, technological advances can change resource availability and consumption patterns, further complicating calculations .
Historically, population growth was slow until the agricultural and industrial revolutions, after which it 'exploded.' In modern times, growth remains rapid, with 1 million people added to the world every 4 days. Future projections show continued growth, albeit slowing as countries transition through demographic stages. This persistent increase threatens to strain global resources, challenging the carrying capacity of Earth under current technological conditions. To accommodate this growth sustainably, technological advancements, resource management, and population policies will need to evolve accordingly .