Poisson Distribution
• Many studies are based on counts of the times a particular event
occurs in a given area of opportunity.
• Area of opportunity- continuous unit or interval of time or volume.
E.g. Surface defects on a new refrigerator, number of accidents in a
day.
• Poisson Distribution - used to find probabilities of some number of
discrete occurrences (of rare events) over some interval of time or
specific region of space. Also referred to as Law of Improbable
Events.
• Suitable for a situation where we can observe the number of times
an event occurs but where it is not meaningful (or possible) to
speak of the number of times event did not occur. It may at times
not be possible to know the total number of possible outcomes as
well.
•In Poisson experiments, we are concerned with the average number
of outcomes occurring during a given time interval or in a specified
region. The given time interval may be of any length (a minute, a day,
a week, a month or even a year).
E.g. 1. If an air corporation had 2 accidents during past 50 yrs of
service, then average number of accidents per year=2/50=.04
If the same trend continued, average number of accidents per 5
yrs=.04x5=.2 and average number of accidents per decade, i.e. per 10
yrs=.04x10=.4
[Link] a radioactive substance emits on the average 2.5 particles per
second, then the average number of particles emitted per 4 second
will be 10.
Poisson Distribution is also seen as a limiting case of Binomial distribution when
• p is very small i.e., p→0 and n is very large (n→∞)
• Still Mean, np= (> 0) is finite
• A discrete random variable X is said to have a Poisson Distribution with
parameter (> 0) if its probability mass function is given by
e x
P( X x) p ( x) , x 0,1,2,...
x!
• We write X~Poisson (). e= 2.7183
• P(X)= prob. of X events
• E(X)= =np
• Var(X)= =np
(Note: In Binomial Distribution, Var(X)=np(1-p). As p→0 , (1-p) →1)
• Rule of thumb: if n>20 and n.p ≤ 7, use poisson approx. to binomial cases.
• There are 100000 vehicles on the streets of NOIDA
• On a given day, probability of a vehicle meeting with an
accident is 0.00005.
• np = = 5 accidents per day (accident rate)
• A machine produces 50000 parts per day, with 0.001
probability of a part being defective.
• = 50 (average number of defective parts produced in a
day)
Note: We need not know n and p separately. Mean is enough
to describe the whole distribution.
Example:
• In a book of 520 pages, 390 typographical errors occur.
• Assuming Poisson probability law for the number of errors per
page,
a) find the probability that a random sample of 4 pages will contain
no error.
b) find the probability that a random sample of 2 pages will contain
no error.
Sol: a) Remember in poisson distribution we need to find average
number of successes () in the span or range of interest (4 pages in
this case)
Now within 520 pages there were 390 errors
On an average within 1 page there will be (390/520)= .75 error
On an average within 4 pages there will be 4 * .75 = 3 error
Thus = 3. Ans p(0)= .0498
Also
e 3 (3) 0
P( X 0) p(0) .0498
0!
b) find the probability that a random sample of 2 pages will contain no
error.
Sol: within 520 pages there were 390 errors
On an average within 1 page there will be (390/520)= .75 error
On an average within 2 pages there will be 2 * .75 = 1.5 error
Thus = 1.5
p(0) = .2231
Example:
•Assuming that on an average 1% of the output in a factory
making certain part of an article are defective and that 200
units are in a package. Find the probabilities that
a) At most two defectives
b) At least 2 defectives may be found in the package
Sol.
p=.01; n=200; =np = 2
a) There exist at most two defectives
• P(X≤ 2)= p(0)+p(1)+p(2)= .1353+.2707+.2707=.6767
• b) At least 2 defectives may be found in the package
• P(X≥2)=1-P(X<2)=1-(p(0)+p(1))= 1- (.1353+.2707)= .594
Example:
• A manufacturer, who produces medicine bottles, finds that 0.1% of
the bottles are defective.
• The bottles are packed in boxes containing 500 bottles.
• A drug manufacturer buys 100 boxes from the manufacturer of
bottles.
• Using Poisson distribution, find how many boxes are expected to
contain:
• no defective;
• at most two defectives.
• Avg no of defective bottles per box = = np =500*.001 =.5
a) Chance of 0 defective bottles in one box = P(0) = .6065
Out of 100 boxes no. of boxes expected to have 0 def. bottles
=100*P(0)= 100* .6065= 60.65 (Approx)
b) Chance of at most 2 defective bottles in one box = P(X<=2) = .9856
Out of 100 boxes no. of boxes expected to have at most 2 def. bottles
=100*P(X<=2)= 100* .9856= 98.56 (Approx)
Example:
• A toll free phone number is available from 9:00 AM to 9:00
PM for the customers to register complaints about a
product purchased from a company.
• Past history indicates that an average of 0.4 calls are
received per minute.
a) What is the probability that during a 2-minute period,
zero phone calls will be received?
b) 3 or more phone calls will be received during 3 min
period?
c) At most, how many phone calls will be received in a 1-
minute period 99.99% of the time?
Sol:
a) What is the probability that during a 2-minute period, zero phone
calls will be received?
For 2-min period = .8; p(0)=.4493
b) 3 or more phone calls will be received during 3 min period?
For 3-min period = 1.2; P(X≥3)= 1- P(X<3)=
1-(p(0)+p(1)+p(2))= 1- (.3012+.3514+.2169)= .1305
c) At most, how many phone calls will be received in a 1-minute period
99.99% of the time?
For 1-min period = .4; Find x s.t P(X≤ x)=.9999
From table x=4
Additive Property of Poisson Distribution:
• If X and Y are independent random variables.
• X ~ Poisson (λ)
• Y ~ Poisson (μ)
• Then Z = X+Y ~ Poisson (λ+μ)
e ( ) ( ) z
P( Z z ) P( X Y z ) p ( z ) , z 0,1,2,...
z!
Example:
• Suppose that the number of telephone calls
coming into a telephone exchange between 10:00
AM and 11:00 AM is a random variable X.
• X~ Poisson (2).
• Similarly the calls arriving between 11:00 AM and
12:00 Noon is Y
• Y ~ Poisson (6).
• X and Y are independent
• What is the probability that more than 5 calls
come between 10:00 AM and 12:00 Noon?
Sol: By additive property we are talking of a new
variable Z=X+Y,
with = 2+6=8
Now
find P(X>5) = 1- P(X≤ 5)= 0.8088
Example:
• According to the National Office of Vital Statistics of the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the
average number of accidental drowning per year in the
United States is 3.0 per 100,000 population
• What is the probability that in a city of population
200,000 there will be
a) 6 accidental drowning per year?
b) Fewer than 3 accidental drowning per year?
• Sol: a).1606 b) .0620
Example:
• Given the probability that an individual will suffer
a bad reaction from injection of a given serum is
.001
• Determine the probability that out of 2000
individuals
• a) Exactly 3 b)more than 2 individuals will suffer
a bad reaction.
• Ans: a) 0.180 b).323
Example:
• A car hire firm has two cars, which it hires out day by
day. The number of demands for a car on each day is
distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5.
• Calculate the proportion of day in which neither car is
used
• Calculate the proportion of day in which some demand
is refused
• Ans: a) P(X=0)=0.2231 b)P(X>2)=.1912
Example:
• The number of deaths per day in a city due to road
accidents and due to other causes independently
follows Poisson distributions with parameters 2 and 6
respectively.
• Find the probability that the total number of deaths on
a particular day is 2 or fewer.
• Sol: By additive property we are talking of a new
variable Z=X+Y, with = 2+6=8
• Find P(X≤ 2)= 0.0137