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Reliability-Based Design Principles

This document discusses reliability-based design versus deterministic design. It introduces the mean value, first order, second moment (MVFOSM) method for approximating component reliability using Gaussian random variables and a linear Taylor approximation. A generic procedure is outlined for solving reliability design problems through developing a performance function, calculating reliability via an approximation method, finding optimal design variables to meet reliability requirements, and validating the final design. Three example problems involving reliability analysis and design of structural components are presented.

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98 views11 pages

Reliability-Based Design Principles

This document discusses reliability-based design versus deterministic design. It introduces the mean value, first order, second moment (MVFOSM) method for approximating component reliability using Gaussian random variables and a linear Taylor approximation. A generic procedure is outlined for solving reliability design problems through developing a performance function, calculating reliability via an approximation method, finding optimal design variables to meet reliability requirements, and validating the final design. Three example problems involving reliability analysis and design of structural components are presented.

Uploaded by

tohema
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

7.

Reliability based design


Objectives
• Learn formulation of reliability design problem.
Understand difference between reliability-based
design and deterministic design
• Learn how to quickly approximate reliability of
component using mean value, first order, second
moment method
• Be exposed to three example problems involving
analysis and design
Deterministic vs. Reliability Design
• Find design variables • Find design variables
• To minimize cost (or • To minimize cost (or
weight) weight)
• so that safety factor  • so that reliability 
minimum acceptable minimum acceptable
value value
Approximate calculation of reliability
• Mean value, first order, second moment
method (MVFOSM) method
• Assumptions:
– Random variables are Gaussian
– Linear Taylor approximation of performance
function, g(x1,…,xn), is accurate (performance
function; positive implies survival, negative
implies failure)
Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)
Linear Taylor approximation of g about mean
values of random variables:
gi
g ( x1,..., xn )  g ( E ( X1),..., E ( X n ))   ( xi  E ( X i ))
i 1,...,n xi
Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)
Mean value of g

E ( g ( x1,..., xn ))  g ( E ( X1),..., E ( X n ))

Standard deviation of g

g 2 2 g g
 g2   ( )   2    Xi X j
i 1,...,n xi i 1,..., n j i 1,..., n xi x j
X i

The derivatives are calculated at the mean values of r.v.s


Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)

Failure probability = (-)

Reliability=1-failure probability

E( g)
  safety index 
g
Generic procedure for solving reliability
design problem
• Develop equation for performance function
• Develop method for calculating the reliability as a function
of the design variable(s). Since many iterations are
required in design we need an approximate method (e.g.
MVFOSM) for calculating reliability at this stage
• Find the optimum values of the design variable(s) so that
the requirement for acceptable reliability as well as other
requirements are satisfied
• Validate the final design, i.e. compute the reliability of the
final design using an accurate method (for example Monte-
Carlo simulation)
• Redesign the system if needed.
Example 1
• Tension element
• Given probability distribution of axial load,
ultimate strength and coefficient of
variation of diameter, find mean diameter of
element that has reliability 0.9999.

P
P d
Example 2: Design of I-beam
• Find web height of I-beam to meet given
reliability target
Example 3: Design-oriented analysis
of torsion bar of a truck
Suggested reading
• Frangopol, D, M., and Maute, K., “Reliability-
based Optimization of Civil and Aerospace
Structural Systems,” Engineering Design
Reliability Handbook, CRC press, 2004, p. 24-1.
• Mourelatos, Z., P., et al., “Probabilistic Analysis
and Design in Automotive Industry,” Engineering
Design Reliability Handbook, CRC press, 2004, p.
38-1.

Common questions

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Performance functions are used to relate design variables and random variables in reliability-based design. A positive performance function value implies survival, while a negative value implies failure. The function serves as a basis for calculating reliability, which must meet specified targets to ensure safety and functionality.

Reliability-based design focuses on minimizing the cost or weight while ensuring the reliability is equal to or greater than a minimum acceptable value. In contrast, deterministic design aims to minimize cost or weight by ensuring the safety factor meets a specific acceptable threshold.

The reliability-based design optimizes an I-beam by determining the web height required to meet a given reliability target. The design process considers random variables affecting the beam's performance and uses approximations like MVFOSM to iterate towards an optimal design that balances weight, cost, and reliability.

The key assumptions of the MVFOSM method are that the random variables are Gaussian and that the linear Taylor approximation of the performance function is accurate. This method relies on linearizing the performance function around the mean values of the random variables to approximate reliability.

The process involves developing a performance function, then using a linear Taylor approximation of the function around the mean values of the random variables. The derivatives are calculated at these mean values, with the reliability being derived from the mean value and standard deviation of the performance function, and failure probability as a function of a safety index.

An example is the design of a tension element. Given the probability distribution of axial load, ultimate strength, and diameter variation, the task is to find the mean diameter that achieves a specified reliability target (e.g., 0.9999). This involves using statistical methods to understand how variations affect reliability.

Validating the final design using methods like Monte Carlo simulation ensures that the design meets the reliability target accurately. It helps confirm that the assumptions and approximations used during earlier phases of design are valid, thus ensuring the performance and safety of the system in real-world conditions.

The steps include developing a performance function equation, calculating reliability as a function of design variables using approximate methods like MVFOSM, finding optimum design variable values to satisfy reliability requirements, validating the design with an accurate method like Monte-Carlo simulation, and redesigning the system if needed.

A system might need to be redesigned if the initial reliability assessment reveals that the design does not meet reliability targets or safety requirements. Factors triggering redesign include inaccurate approximations in the design phase, changes in input random variables, or newly discovered requirements.

Failure probability can be determined using the safety index, which is the ratio of the mean value of the performance function to its standard deviation. The failure probability is then found by calculating the cumulative distribution function for the negative value of the safety index.

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