Climate Change Impacts
in the Gulf Coast
Philip B. Bedient
Civil & Environmental
Engineering
Rice University
Climate Change History
Earths climate has
always been changing
Ice age (2 m.y.a.),
glacial periods,
polar ice caps
18,000 yrs ago:
cold spell &
continental glaciers
Last 100 yrs, surface has warmed about
0.6C
In past 10,000 yrs, global temp. has
never varied more than 1.5C
Why has it been
changing?
Various theories
Intricate & complex relationship b/w
ocean, atmosphere, ice, and other
elements
No climatic element in systems is
isolated
Influences path of ocean currents,
transport of heat, global wind
system, and climates
Key Predictions for
Future
Increased warming
5-9F increase next 100 yrs
Differing regional impacts
Vulnerable ecosystems
Widespread water concerns
Secure food supply
Near-term forest growth increase
Damage in coastal/permafrost areas
Adaptation determines health
Greenhouse effect
Delicate balance of incoming & outgoing energy
in earth-atmosphere
Atmosphere gases (water vapor, CO2, CH4,
halocarbons, O3) absorb Earths heat
Radiate some heat back to Earth, some passes
through into space
Humans change atmosphere
burn coal, oil, natural gas, destroy forests
CO2 risen 30%, CH4 150% in past 100 yrs
Heat energy cant pass into space
Increasing Greenhouse
Gases
Unusual rapid warming
of 0.6C in 20th century
Human activities major
cause of warming
Carbon emissions have
increased from 1 to over
7 billion metric tons/year
Lifetimes of gases last
centuries
CO2 Predicted to triple by
2100
Climate Assessment
Tools
Historical records &
climate simulations
General Circulation
Model (GCM)
model Earths
climate
incomplete, but
still state-ofscience
Two main modelsHadley & Canadian
Hadley & Canadian
Models
Principles driving models are similar
Differ in representation of effects of
important processes
Thus, different views of 21st century
climate
Hadley predicts wetter climate
Canadian predicts greater temp increase
Uncertainties
how to represent clouds & precipitation
how emissions of greenhouse gases will
change
Past & Future Temperature
Change
Precipitation
Change
Large increases in
20th century
(510%)
Due to frequency &
intensity growth
Increasingly
frequent heavy
precipitation
events in 21st
century
Soil Moisture
Critical for agriculture &
natural ecosystems
Levels set by
precipitation, run-off,
evaporation, soil
drainage
Higher temp increases
evaporation, removing
moisture
Models differ due to
different temp &
precipitation predictions
Future Ecosystem
Changes
Vegetation response to
CO2 concentrations
double present levels
Multiple stresses
Climate only one of changes in global
environment
Effects of climate & other environmental changes
Common Climate
Changes
Predict increased warming,
precipitation, evaporation
Islands
Pacific
northwes
t
West
Midwes
t
Northwes
t
Common Issues
Weather extreme increase
Natural ecosystem, species, and
biodiversity changes
Water resource changes (lake levels,
snow melting)
Public health and
safety
Shifts in tourism and
recreation
Sea-level variability
Southeast
Half of remaining
wetlands located here
Rapid growth (30%
population increase b/w
1970 & 1990)
Produces half of U.S.
timber supplies
Warming and thus higher evaporation
predicted
Lower soil moisture
Significant precipitation increase also
predicted
Southeast: Future
Climate Scenarios
Southeast: Impacts on
Humans
Weather-related stresses
frequent weather disasters: drought,
hurricane
flooding in Texas (low-lying coast counties)
high heat index & poor air-quality to
increase death rate
southern heat wave & drought of 1998: $6
billion in damages & over 200 deaths
8 to 15 heat index
increase for
southernmost states
Southeast: Climate
Effects
Crop and economy impact
will vary according to area and crop
adaptation: switch crops, vary
planting dates, water usage, crop
rotations, fertilizers
Water quality stresses
sewage, dead animals, fuel, chemicals
from flooding
high temp- decrease dissolved oxygen
Southeast: Climate
effects
Coastal area threats
sea-level rise will impact ecosystems
Obvious impacts on coastal flooding
Forest productivity shifts
greater CO2: production increase in north
Pine trees
Climate Change
Summary
Warmer temp will lead to more vigorous
hydrological cycle- severe droughts &/or
floods
Uncertain predictions, especially in
timing, magnitude, & regional patterns
of climate change
Balance of evidence shows there is
discernible human influence on global
climate